_FANalysis: K-State QBs

[ksupamplemousse]

I also think you can keep defenses honest without throwing bombs all day.

You don't have to throw bombs all day, but you have to have the threat of going deep to loosen up the defense, or at least that would be ideal. With the way it stands, #life is more likely to throw a pick on a deep route than make a completion. I'd like to see more #life, but I think we'd see diminishing returns if we started him every game, and he played every snap over a several week period, without the threat of stretching the field vertically. Opposing coaches catch onto those sort of things.

They defend him just like they defended Klein. How did that work out for them?

Klein had the ability, no matter how aesthetically displeasing it was, to complete a few passes downfield each game without throwing dangerous passes very often. Sams hasn't shown that ability yet.

[Rage Against the McKee]

The only times that Sams has looked bad all year have been when the defense is not stacking the box.

That seems to be true when we were trying to "pass to win" in late game situations. I don't think that would hold up at all during the course of a game.

I agree that he would run wild if the box weren't stacked, but he is still leading us to points at a high rate and completing more than 75% of his passes, mostly because the box is stacked. He was able to underthrow Thompson on a deep ball to the endzone, and the defender's only play was to tackle Thompson before the ball arrived. That defender doesn't get burned if he isn't thinking run first and that pass probably isn't completed, but it doesn't matter because as long as Sams is able to make teams pay on the ground, even when they have 8 in the box, the passing game will be there. We only really run into trouble with Sams when the defense can go away from stacking the box, and Sams has to throw passes anyway because we don't have time to run. If Waters sits out the OSU and Baylor games completely, we most likely have more points and are not in that situation in the first place.

[Rage Against the McKee]

I also think you can keep defenses honest without throwing bombs all day.

You don't have to throw bombs all day, but you have to have the threat of going deep to loosen up the defense, or at least that would be ideal. With the way it stands, #life is more likely to throw a pick on a deep route than make a completion. I'd like to see more #life, but I think we'd see diminishing returns if we started him every game, and he played every snap over a several week period, without the threat of stretching the field vertically. Opposing coaches catch onto those sort of things.

They defend him just like they defended Klein. How did that work out for them?

Klein had the ability, no matter how aesthetically displeasing it was, to complete a few passes downfield each game without throwing dangerous passes very often. Sams hasn't shown that ability yet.

Klein completed a lower percentage of passes, with less yards per attempt, in his best year than Sams has in this, his sophomore year.

[MadCat]

OT: Have we thrown any screen passes lately?  I seem to remember them more during Snyder I.

[michigancat]

I also think you can keep defenses honest without throwing bombs all day.

You don't have to throw bombs all day, but you have to have the threat of going deep to loosen up the defense, or at least that would be ideal. With the way it stands, #life is more likely to throw a pick on a deep route than make a completion. I'd like to see more #life, but I think we'd see diminishing returns if we started him every game, and he played every snap over a several week period, without the threat of stretching the field vertically. Opposing coaches catch onto those sort of things.

They defend him just like they defended Klein. How did that work out for them?

Klein had the ability, no matter how aesthetically displeasing it was, to complete a few passes downfield each game without throwing dangerous passes very often. Sams hasn't shown that ability yet.

Klein completed a lower percentage of passes, with less yards per attempt, in his best year than Sams has in this, his sophomore year.

[Emo EMAW]

I don't really care about which one is older.

Of course you do.  or, at least, you should.  If they're both equal, hypothetically, you'd hire the guy who's gonna be there for 2 years instead of just 1 year.     

They aren't equal at all, though.

I understand this.  But, for those people suggesting that Snake and Sams are essentially, statistically equal, it seems that age should be the deciding factor.  I mean, if I've got the choice between 2 honda civics and one has 75,000 miles and the other has 120,000 miles, I'm taking the lower mileage vehicle.   

But what if the one with 75,000 miles ran out of gas one time, and the one with 120,000 miles steers itself into garbage trucks?

[kslim]

I also think you can keep defenses honest without throwing bombs all day.

You don't have to throw bombs all day, but you have to have the threat of going deep to loosen up the defense, or at least that would be ideal. With the way it stands, #life is more likely to throw a pick on a deep route than make a completion. I'd like to see more #life, but I think we'd see diminishing returns if we started him every game, and he played every snap over a several week period, without the threat of stretching the field vertically. Opposing coaches catch onto those sort of things.

They defend him just like they defended Klein. How did that work out for them?

Klein had the ability, no matter how aesthetically displeasing it was, to complete a few passes downfield each game without throwing dangerous passes very often. Sams hasn't shown that ability yet.

yeah but how many stop and break off the routes and come back to an under thrown ball did our core have last year? answer is a rough ridin' lot

[catzacker]

I also think you can keep defenses honest without throwing bombs all day.

You don't have to throw bombs all day, but you have to have the threat of going deep to loosen up the defense, or at least that would be ideal. With the way it stands, #life is more likely to throw a pick on a deep route than make a completion. I'd like to see more #life, but I think we'd see diminishing returns if we started him every game, and he played every snap over a several week period, without the threat of stretching the field vertically. Opposing coaches catch onto those sort of things.

They defend him just like they defended Klein. How did that work out for them?

Klein had the ability, no matter how aesthetically displeasing it was, to complete a few passes downfield each game without throwing dangerous passes very often. Sams hasn't shown that ability yet.

Klein completed a lower percentage of passes, with less yards per attempt, in his best year than Sams has in this, his sophomore year.

what was klein's TO/attempt?  what was KSU's record when klein received the majority of the snaps?  were TBL and TT there for every snap?

[ksupamplemousse]

I also think you can keep defenses honest without throwing bombs all day.

You don't have to throw bombs all day, but you have to have the threat of going deep to loosen up the defense, or at least that would be ideal. With the way it stands, #life is more likely to throw a pick on a deep route than make a completion. I'd like to see more #life, but I think we'd see diminishing returns if we started him every game, and he played every snap over a several week period, without the threat of stretching the field vertically. Opposing coaches catch onto those sort of things.

They defend him just like they defended Klein. How did that work out for them?

Klein had the ability, no matter how aesthetically displeasing it was, to complete a few passes downfield each game without throwing dangerous passes very often. Sams hasn't shown that ability yet.

Klein completed a lower percentage of passes, with less yards per attempt, in his best year than Sams has in this, his sophomore year.

I think that's a case of stats hiding the truth. I can really only remember one deep pass from Sams this year that was completed (it cant be many, he only has three 30+ yard plays on the year). Klein had quite a few of those his last two years, along with a bunch of dink and dunk passes which lowered his yards per attempt.

The only times that Sams has looked bad all year have been when the defense is not stacking the box.

That seems to be true when we were trying to "pass to win" in late game situations. I don't think that would hold up at all during the course of a game.

I agree that he would run wild if the box weren't stacked, but he is still leading us to points at a high rate and completing more than 75% of his passes, mostly because the box is stacked. He was able to underthrow Thompson on a deep ball to the endzone, and the defender's only play was to tackle Thompson before the ball arrived. That defender doesn't get burned if he isn't thinking run first and that pass probably isn't completed, but it doesn't matter because as long as Sams is able to make teams pay on the ground, even when they have 8 in the box, the passing game will be there. We only really run into trouble with Sams when the defense can go away from stacking the box, and Sams has to throw passes anyway because we don't have time to run. If Waters sits out the OSU and Baylor games completely, we most likely have more points and are not in that situation in the first place.

I agree with most of this, but you can really only maximize your advantage regarding the other team's commitment to stop the run IF you are able to hit on those downfield passes. #life hasn't done that very well. Also, I think Waters is playing much better at times than he was during the OSU and BU games. I still think he needs to see the field this year, just not when he gets into those 3-and-out ruts. Time for Bill to have a quicker hook.

[Belvis Noland]

What would our record be if Waters was the QB 100% of the time?  no better than 4-4. 

What would our record be if Same was the QB 100% of the time?  no worse than 4-4. 

[end thread]

[kso_FAN]

I'm going to continue fighting the good fight, tho, b/c _Fan is typically rational, HFBIQ.   

I'm probably overly rational, but I try not to look at any position on the field in a vacuum, though quarterback is probably the most difficult. The numbers are and should be the most important indicator in evaluating the quarterback, but I also know there are other factors that we as fans don't/can't see or know that go into the evaluations of each position. I'm not trying to make this a "Snyder has forgotten more about football than any of us know" thing, but I can't help but factor in this unknown side based on what I've seen, particularly in how Snyder and his staff rotates these 2 guys in and out of games. Also, I've come to accept that Snyder is going to continue to play both guys unless one guy does something fantastic to stand out. Even then, he will probably keep the competition intact like he did with Roberson and Dunn.

[Rage Against the McKee]

Klein completed a lower percentage of passes, with less yards per attempt, in his best year than Sams has in this, his sophomore year.

what was klein's TO/attempt?  what was KSU's record when klein received the majority of the snaps?  were TBL and TT there for every snap?

The turnovers are a fair point. The record is not. Sams has only received the majority of the snaps against the 2 best teams in the league, and he lost series to Waters in both games that resulted in quick punts and/or turnovers inside K-State's 10 yard line. I think TBL and TT, as well as Harper, were there for every snap in 2012, but I might be wrong. Of course that is offset by TBL and TT not being quite as good in 2012 as they are in 2013.

[kso_FAN]

_FAN, just to be sure, your drive charts aren't counting drives that end with QB kneels are they?

No, I threw out drives at the end of halves/games where it was clear we weren't trying to score.

[The Whale]

I agree with most of this, but you can really only maximize your advantage regarding the other team's commitment to stop the run IF you are able to hit on those downfield passes. #life hasn't done that very well. Also, I think Waters is playing much better at times than he was during the OSU and BU games. I still think he needs to see the field this year, just not when he gets into those 3-and-out ruts. Time for Bill to have a quicker hook.

Level of competition tho.

[ksupamplemousse]

I agree with most of this, but you can really only maximize your advantage regarding the other team's commitment to stop the run IF you are able to hit on those downfield passes. #life hasn't done that very well. Also, I think Waters is playing much better at times than he was during the OSU and BU games. I still think he needs to see the field this year, just not when he gets into those 3-and-out ruts. Time for Bill to have a quicker hook.

Level of competition tho.

For sure. If Waters comes out and shits his pants against Tech, then I'll have to rethink my presuppositions. That's assuming that Sams also doesn't crash and burn against Tech.

[kso_FAN]

A few other things...

In the 5 Big 12 games, K-State has called 4 timeouts with Waters playing and 12 with Sams.

In the 2 Big 12 wins, Sams played 58 snaps and gained 313 yards, 5.4 yards per snap. One play longer than 20 yards.

In the 2 Big 12 wins, Waters played 68 snaps and gained 587 yards, 8.6 yards per snap. 11 plays longer than 20 yards and 5 longer than 30.

That's probably a little bit why I tempered from being full Sams after OSU/Baylor, maybe that's not fair to Sams.

[steve dave]

I'm going to continue fighting the good fight, tho, b/c _Fan is typically rational, HFBIQ.   

I'm probably overly rational, but I try not to look at any position on the field in a vacuum, though quarterback is probably the most difficult. The numbers are and should be the most important indicator in evaluating the quarterback, but I also know there are other factors that we as fans don't/can't see or know that go into the evaluations of each position. I'm not trying to make this a "Snyder has forgotten more about football than any of us know" thing, but I can't help but factor in this unknown side based on what I've seen, particularly in how Snyder and his staff rotates these 2 guys in and out of games. Also, I've come to accept that Snyder is going to continue to play both guys unless one guy does something fantastic to stand out. Even then, he will probably keep the competition intact like he did with Roberson and Dunn.

I've seen bill lose us plenty of games because he refuses to play the superior player. sitting here quietly accepting it just because I know bill isn't going to magically quit being a dumbass doesn't appeal to me. I'm going to keep calling him a dumbass for it until he stops or one of us dies.

[michigancat]

I'm going to continue fighting the good fight, tho, b/c _Fan is typically rational, HFBIQ.   

I'm probably overly rational, but I try not to look at any position on the field in a vacuum, though quarterback is probably the most difficult. The numbers are and should be the most important indicator in evaluating the quarterback, but I also know there are other factors that we as fans don't/can't see or know that go into the evaluations of each position. I'm not trying to make this a "Snyder has forgotten more about football than any of us know" thing, but I can't help but factor in this unknown side based on what I've seen, particularly in how Snyder and his staff rotates these 2 guys in and out of games. Also, I've come to accept that Snyder is going to continue to play both guys unless one guy does something fantastic to stand out. Even then, he will probably keep the competition intact like he did with Roberson and Dunn.

I've seen bill lose us plenty of games because he refuses to play the superior player. sitting here quietly accepting it just because I know bill isn't going to magically quit being a dumbass doesn't appeal to me. I'm going to keep calling him a dumbass for it until he stops or one of us dies.

Yeah, I don't think ignoring the stats (points) for something the "fans don't/can't see" is very rational. JMO.

[Emo EMAW]

Waters gets more snaps with Hubert than Sams, which is significant I think.  Sams is always (stuck) with Gronk, whom the defense knows isn't going to run the ball.

[kso_FAN]

Yeah, I don't think ignoring the stats (points) for something the "fans don't/can't see" is very rational. JMO.

Perhaps, but its practical. Maybe its part of the over-analysis coaches do, but they don't spend 80+ hours a week and have all those practices for the hell of it.

[michigancat]

Yeah, I don't think ignoring the stats (points) for something the "fans don't/can't see" is very rational. JMO.

Perhaps, but its practical. Maybe its part of the over-analysis coaches do, but they don't spend 80+ hours a week and have all those practices for the hell of it.

How is it practical?

And I honestly think Snyder does spend more time than necessary over-analyzing just for the hell of it.

[Steffy08]

To me, there is no question that Sams should be our QB anytime we get within the opponents 15-20 yard line.

I think they should split snaps outside of that.

[catzacker]

A few other things...

In the 5 Big 12 games, K-State has called 4 timeouts with Waters playing and 12 with Sams.

In the 2 Big 12 wins, Sams played 58 snaps and gained 313 yards, 5.4 yards per snap. One play longer than 20 yards.

In the 2 Big 12 wins, Waters played 68 snaps and gained 587 yards, 8.6 yards per snap. 11 plays longer than 20 yards and 5 longer than 30.

That's probably a little bit why I tempered from being full Sams after OSU/Baylor, maybe that's not fair to Sams.

welp, if ayone wants me, I'll up up here with my best bud _Fan just hanging out.

[steve dave]

Yeah, I don't think ignoring the stats (points) for something the "fans don't/can't see" is very rational. JMO.

Perhaps, but its practical. Maybe its part of the over-analysis coaches do, but they don't spend 80+ hours a week and have all those practices for the hell of it.

How is it practical?

And I honestly think Snyder does spend more time than necessary over-analyzing just for the hell of it.

his car's always in the parking lot rus. he doesn't eat until midnight.

[EllRobersonisInnocent]

Our coaching staff is awful and they want Sams to fail apparently.