_FANalysis: K-State QBs

[Skipper44]

I believe Sams can be Roberson.  I want him to be Roberson.  The similarities are ridiculous.  especially within the context of their SO seasons. 

Robersons (6'1, 209 lbs) SO stats:

Passing:  54 of 136 (39.7%) (YPA 6.3), 855 yds, 4 TD/8 INTs.  Rushing:  142 attempts, 643 yds (4.5 avg), 9TDs. 

Sams (6'2, 207 lbs) SO stats through 2/3 of season:

Passing:  34 of 45 (75.6%) (YPA 9.29), 418 yds, 4 TD/4 INTs.  Rushing:  113 attempts, 595 yds (5.3 avg), 8 TDs.

He's got every bit of upside as Roberson and, of course, he's making the same mistakes Roberson made as a SO.  Give him the keys to the car.  Don't sacrifice the future.   

That makes Sams look way way better than Ell.

Even tho the stats don't show it, I think of Ell as the more explosive player than Sams both running and throwing.  If anything, Sams accuracy on short and intermediate passes is more desirable in today's Big 12 than Ell's ability to throw downfield. 

You're right, the stats don't show it.

Ell in 2001 was 15.8 yds/completion (Sams is 9.3) which fits better with my memories of laser rocket strikes to Brandon Clark and Ricky Lloyd in Norman.

[Rage Against the McKee]

Ell didn't complete passes very often, though.

[michigancat]

Sams is 12.3 YPC.

[Belvis Noland]

I don't really care about which one is older.

Of course you do.  or, at least, you should.  If they're both equal, hypothetically, you'd hire the guy who's gonna be there for 2 years instead of just 1 year.     

[Benja]

I can't believe you went to all that trouble just to stay on the fence.

I haven't read it yet but this already makes me 

[Rage Against the McKee]

I don't really care about which one is older.

Of course you do.  or, at least, you should.  If they're both equal, hypothetically, you'd hire the guy who's gonna be there for 2 years instead of just 1 year.     

They aren't equal at all, though.

[Skipper44]

Sams is 12.3 YPC.

oops.  Not quite as dramatic a diff.

[Benja]

THANKS _FAN! GOOD STUFF!

[steve dave]

I can't believe you went to all that trouble just to stay on the fence.

I haven't read it yet but this already makes me 

don't be sad. _FAN decided he was going to be on the fence before he even looked at the data (which favored our guy).

[Trogdor]

Ell didn't complete passes very often, though.

Ell wasn't gifted with stud receivers either

[steve dave]

Ell didn't complete passes very often, though.

Ell wasn't gifted with stud receivers either

http://goEMAW.com/forum/index.php?topic=29673.msg953733#msg953733

[Rage Against the McKee]

every important stat points to our guy daniel being the better option even after the compiler of the stats removes jakes worst game and ignores the snaps without our only two playmaking WRs against by far our best competition.....

I'm on the fence, both basically equal

 

I believe I stated the premise was to compare each in Big 12 play, and given that they played equal snaps I think the comparison is fair. Plus, as sd said, the numbers don't bend toward Waters anyway. As for the games without Thompson/Lockett, there isn't much I can do about that. I gave you the drive% for each QB in this thread without them, so I think the comparison still has some validity.

I agree that the fumble vs OSU was questionable, but the play was reviewed and upheld, so it still counts. 

Also, I said in the blog post that the numbers favor Sams, just not enough for me to get off the fence on the dual QB show at this point.

Just how much better would Sams' stats have to be than Waters' for you to get off the fence? 100%? 200%?

[Belvis Noland]

I don't really care about which one is older.

Of course you do.  or, at least, you should.  If they're both equal, hypothetically, you'd hire the guy who's gonna be there for 2 years instead of just 1 year.     

They aren't equal at all, though.

I understand this.  But, for those people suggesting that Snake and Sams are essentially, statistically equal, it seems that age should be the deciding factor.  I mean, if I've got the choice between 2 honda civics and one has 75,000 miles and the other has 120,000 miles, I'm taking the lower mileage vehicle.   

[Rage Against the McKee]

I don't really care about which one is older.

Of course you do.  or, at least, you should.  If they're both equal, hypothetically, you'd hire the guy who's gonna be there for 2 years instead of just 1 year.     

They aren't equal at all, though.

I understand this.  But, for those people suggesting that Snake and Sams are essentially, statistically equal, it seems that age should be the deciding factor.  I mean, if I've got the choice between 2 honda civics and one has 75,000 miles and the other has 120,000 miles, I'm taking the lower mileage vehicle.   

People who insist that are not able to look at data and think rationally, so no argument is going to make any difference.

[Benja]

I can't believe you went to all that trouble just to stay on the fence.

I haven't read it yet but this already makes me 

don't be sad. _FAN decided he was going to be on the fence before he even looked at the data (which favored our guy).

Yeah I know, I just wish he would pick a side just this once because I think it's the most interesting thing about this season, but I sense it's against his personality.

[ksupamplemousse]

every important stat points to our guy daniel being the better option even after the compiler of the stats removes jakes worst game and ignores the snaps without our only two playmaking WRs against by far our best competition.....

I'm on the fence, both basically equal

 

I believe I stated the premise was to compare each in Big 12 play, and given that they played equal snaps I think the comparison is fair. Plus, as sd said, the numbers don't bend toward Waters anyway. As for the games without Thompson/Lockett, there isn't much I can do about that. I gave you the drive% for each QB in this thread without them, so I think the comparison still has some validity.

I agree that the fumble vs OSU was questionable, but the play was reviewed and upheld, so it still counts. 

Also, I said in the blog post that the numbers favor Sams, just not enough for me to get off the fence on the dual QB show at this point.

Just how much better would Sams' stats have to be than Waters' for you to get off the fence? 100%? 200%?

I'd be more comfortable with Sams taking the job if he had shown a better ability to get the ball downfield without throwing picks. As it stands right now, the defense can basically stack the box on every play because he hasn't shown a consistent ability to beat them deep (or even the threat of beating them deep, most of his deep passes have been VERY dangerous). That is going to make things awful tough for #life if he's going be playing 100% of the snaps. I'd rather Jake come in for a few drives every game, albeit less drives than he's currently getting, to exploit weaknesses in the other team's secondary (I haven't really noticed any teams in the Big XII with a great secondary, I think all of them are vulnerable, feel free to correct me if I'm wrong).

[Belvis Noland]

I understand this.  But, for those people suggesting that Snake and Sams are essentially, statistically equal, it seems that age should be the deciding factor.  I mean, if I've got the choice between 2 honda civics and one has 75,000 miles and the other has 120,000 miles, I'm taking the lower mileage vehicle.   

People who insist that are not able to look at data and think rationally, so no argument is going to make any difference.

I'm going to continue fighting the good fight, tho, b/c _Fan is typically rational, HFBIQ.   

[michigancat]

every important stat points to our guy daniel being the better option even after the compiler of the stats removes jakes worst game and ignores the snaps without our only two playmaking WRs against by far our best competition.....

I'm on the fence, both basically equal

 

I believe I stated the premise was to compare each in Big 12 play, and given that they played equal snaps I think the comparison is fair. Plus, as sd said, the numbers don't bend toward Waters anyway. As for the games without Thompson/Lockett, there isn't much I can do about that. I gave you the drive% for each QB in this thread without them, so I think the comparison still has some validity.

I agree that the fumble vs OSU was questionable, but the play was reviewed and upheld, so it still counts. 

Also, I said in the blog post that the numbers favor Sams, just not enough for me to get off the fence on the dual QB show at this point.

Just how much better would Sams' stats have to be than Waters' for you to get off the fence? 100%? 200%?

I'd be more comfortable with Sams taking the job if he had shown a better ability to get the ball downfield without throwing picks. As it stands right now, the defense can basically stack the box on every play because he hasn't shown a consistent ability to beat them deep (or even the threat of beating them deep, most of his deep passes have been VERY dangerous).

Oddly enough that hasn't hurt his overall production. (points)

[michigancat]

I also think you can keep defenses honest without throwing bombs all day.

[Rage Against the McKee]

The only times that Sams has looked bad all year have been when the defense is not stacking the box.

[Rage Against the McKee]

_FAN, just to be sure, your drive charts aren't counting drives that end with QB kneels are they?

[kougar24]

every important stat points to our guy daniel being the better option even after the compiler of the stats removes jakes worst game and ignores the snaps without our only two playmaking WRs against by far our best competition.....

I'm on the fence, both basically equal

 

I believe I stated the premise was to compare each in Big 12 play, and given that they played equal snaps I think the comparison is fair. Plus, as sd said, the numbers don't bend toward Waters anyway. As for the games without Thompson/Lockett, there isn't much I can do about that. I gave you the drive% for each QB in this thread without them, so I think the comparison still has some validity.

I agree that the fumble vs OSU was questionable, but the play was reviewed and upheld, so it still counts. 

Also, I said in the blog post that the numbers favor Sams, just not enough for me to get off the fence on the dual QB show at this point.

Just how much better would Sams' stats have to be than Waters' for you to get off the fence? 100%? 200%?

I'd be more comfortable with Sams taking the job if he had shown a better ability to get the ball downfield without throwing picks. As it stands right now, the defense can basically stack the box on every play because he hasn't shown a consistent ability to beat them deep (or even the threat of beating them deep, most of his deep passes have been VERY dangerous).

Oddly enough that hasn't hurt his overall production. (points)

Right, and even IF you were uncomfortable with Sams' ability to throw deep currently, where is he going to get better at that: on the sidelines, or in the game?

Where is a more valuable spot for him when looking ahead to 2014-15?

[ksupamplemousse]

I also think you can keep defenses honest without throwing bombs all day.

You don't have to throw bombs all day, but you have to have the threat of going deep to loosen up the defense, or at least that would be ideal. With the way it stands, #life is more likely to throw a pick on a deep route than make a completion. I'd like to see more #life, but I think we'd see diminishing returns if we started him every game, and he played every snap over a several week period, without the threat of stretching the field vertically. Opposing coaches catch onto those sort of things.

[Rage Against the McKee]

I also think you can keep defenses honest without throwing bombs all day.

You don't have to throw bombs all day, but you have to have the threat of going deep to loosen up the defense, or at least that would be ideal. With the way it stands, #life is more likely to throw a pick on a deep route than make a completion. I'd like to see more #life, but I think we'd see diminishing returns if we started him every game, and he played every snap over a several week period, without the threat of stretching the field vertically. Opposing coaches catch onto those sort of things.

They defend him just like they defended Klein. How did that work out for them?

[ksupamplemousse]

The only times that Sams has looked bad all year have been when the defense is not stacking the box.

That seems to be true when we were trying to "pass to win" in late game situations. I don't think that would hold up at all during the course of a game.