Author Topic: The Official Bracketology Thread (Read 381110 times)

manpow5 · « **Reply #2300 on:** March 05, 2018, 09:55:08 AM »

how is Missouri an 8 seed? I mean seriously

kso_FAN · « **Reply #2301 on:** March 05, 2018, 10:04:07 AM »

Quote from: manpow5 on March 05, 2018, 09:55:08 AM

how is Missouri an 8 seed? I mean seriously

11 combined tier 1/2 wins is really solid, decent on the road, strong metrics.

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #2302 on:** March 05, 2018, 12:29:49 PM »

1) Asu, Usc, Ucla all 21-10 or 20-10. Asu has the fewest Q1/Q2 wins of the 3 teams, but do have the monster wins at Ku and Xavier on a neutral court. Asu with a Q3 loss, USC Q4 loss, Ucla 2 Q3 losses. So similar in their overall resumes

2) Texas Baylor and the Cows 8-10 with 13 overall loses. Like I mentioned I feel Texas is in the best shape. Any of these 3 teams would have benefited from having 1 more win (so just 12 losses). Ok St had a 1 point loss at Arkansas in a game they led late. They also let Roach make a driving layup with 1 second left in that 65-64 Texas win. Had Osu won either one of those, they would have a 6th Q1 win and their RPI would be in 70-72 range, not 86-88.

Lunardi has Bears in (and not in a Dayton game). I think they need to beat WV or they are likely OUT.

cfbandyman · « **Reply #2303 on:** March 05, 2018, 12:44:04 PM »

It would be very interesting to have OSU beat OU and KU again in the tourny.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #2304 on:** March 05, 2018, 01:02:42 PM »

Quote from: Powercat Posse on March 05, 2018, 12:29:49 PM

1) Asu, Usc, Ucla all 21-10 or 20-10. Asu has the fewest Q1/Q2 wins of the 3 teams, but do have the monster wins at Ku and Xavier on a neutral court. Asu with a Q3 loss, USC Q4 loss, Ucla 2 Q3 losses. So similar in their overall resumes

2) Texas Baylor and the Cows 8-10 with 13 overall loses. Like I mentioned I feel Texas is in the best shape. Any of these 3 teams would have benefited from having 1 more win (so just 12 losses). Ok St had a 1 point loss at Arkansas in a game they led late. They also let Roach make a driving layup with 1 second left in that 65-64 Texas win. Had Osu won either one of those, they would have a 6th Q1 win and their RPI would be in 70-72 range, not 86-88.

Lunardi has Bears in (and not in a Dayton game). I think they need to beat WV or they are likely OUT.

Just compare OSU and UT. Their resume's are nearly the same except for the number of Q3/Q4 games, which is what is killing OSU's RPI.

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #2305 on:** March 05, 2018, 02:43:02 PM »

Quote from: ksu_FAN1 on March 05, 2018, 01:02:42 PM

Quote from: Powercat Posse on March 05, 2018, 12:29:49 PM
1) Asu, Usc, Ucla all 21-10 or 20-10. Asu has the fewest Q1/Q2 wins of the 3 teams, but do have the monster wins at Ku and Xavier on a neutral court. Asu with a Q3 loss, USC Q4 loss, Ucla 2 Q3 losses. So similar in their overall resumes

2) Texas Baylor and the Cows 8-10 with 13 overall loses. Like I mentioned I feel Texas is in the best shape. Any of these 3 teams would have benefited from having 1 more win (so just 12 losses). Ok St had a 1 point loss at Arkansas in a game they led late. They also let Roach make a driving layup with 1 second left in that 65-64 Texas win. Had Osu won either one of those, they would have a 6th Q1 win and their RPI would be in 70-72 range, not 86-88.

Lunardi has Bears in (and not in a Dayton game). I think they need to beat WV or they are likely OUT.
[/quote

Just compare OSU and UT. Their resume's are nearly the same except for the number of Q3/Q4 games, which is what is killing OSU's RPI.

For sure. Amazing that it results in 40 spots in the RPI.

Seton Hall #27 (.6013 rating)
Texas # 48 (.5761)
Osu #88 (.5515)

The RPI rating difference is slightly more between 27 & 48, than 48 & 88. That's unfortunate for Osu, but it is what it is.

Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) · « **Reply #2306 on:** March 05, 2018, 08:10:44 PM »

I don't understand why Mich State isn't a unanimous #1 seed. I really don't get how KU is ahead of them.

This tier thing is Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)

pissclams · « **Reply #2307 on:** March 06, 2018, 12:09:15 AM »

it looks like st. mary’s is going to lose this semifinal to byu by double digits. no way they should be in the tournament if this plays out

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #2308 on:** March 06, 2018, 12:29:41 AM »

Quote from: Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) on March 05, 2018, 08:10:44 PM

I don't understand why Mich State isn't a unanimous #1 seed. I really don't get how KU is ahead of them.

This tier thing is Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)

Can't just look at the 4 losses. Yes Sparty having only 3 & 5 on Q1-Q2 wins is a big reason. They also have a 82 SOS

Nova Virginia Xavier Ku Duke all have a top 15 SOS and between 13-18 Q1-Q2 wins

Quote from: pissclams on March 06, 2018, 12:09:15 AM

it looks like st. mary’s is going to lose this semifinal to byu by double digits. no way they should be in the tournament if this plays out

.

Yep. I think St Mary's is looking like at the NIT

pissclams · « **Reply #2309 on:** March 06, 2018, 12:51:11 AM »

for me, their SoS outweighs the win @ gonzaga

kso_FAN · « **Reply #2310 on:** March 06, 2018, 06:48:18 AM »

St Mary's best wins are Gonzaga, New Mexico State, and BYU. Losses to Washington State and Georgia in the OOC. They should be out.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #2311 on:** March 06, 2018, 07:00:32 AM »

Back to our fun comparison with Jaime's TCU Horned Frogs....

TCU - 6 seed lock. 3-8 quad 1, 6-2 quad 2, 3-7 on the road. 12-0 vs tiers 3/4. 1-5 vs the top 3 in the Big 12.

KSU - 10 seedish. 3-7 quad 1, 6-3 quad 2. 6-5 on the road. 12-0 vs tiers 3/4. 0-6 vs the top 3 in the Big 12.

But a 40 spot difference in the RPI and 4 seed lines between these 2 teams.

renocat · « **Reply #2312 on:** March 06, 2018, 07:06:03 AM »

Fan, in these lesser known conferences, are there any league tournament upsets that are skewing the predicted bracket. I see some predictions leaving out KSU. How many B12 tourny games should we win. Is a 10 seed bad?

kso_FAN · « **Reply #2313 on:** March 06, 2018, 07:16:53 AM »

Quote from: renocat on March 06, 2018, 07:06:03 AM

Fan, in these lesser known conferences, are there any league tournament upsets that are skewing the predicted bracket. I see some predictions leaving out KSU. How many B12 tourny games should we win. Is a 10 seed bad?

I'd say a 10 seed is better than an 8/9, but you want to be as highly seeded as possible.

There could be upsets in 1 or 2 leagues that steal a bid. For example, Middle Tennessee could get an at large if someone else wins their conference tournament. I'm honestly not that worried after really looking at the teams around us an below us. Our wins and road record are better than most. I don't believe OOC SOS will be that high of a factor to knock us out, especially when you see that we've played the same number or more Tier 1/2 games as anyone else in the 8-11 seed range.

felix rex · « **Reply #2314 on:** March 06, 2018, 07:43:44 AM »

Quote from: ksu_FAN1 on March 06, 2018, 07:16:53 AM

Quote from: renocat on March 06, 2018, 07:06:03 AM
Fan, in these lesser known conferences, are there any league tournament upsets that are skewing the predicted bracket. I see some predictions leaving out KSU. How many B12 tourny games should we win. Is a 10 seed bad?

I'd say a 10 seed is better than an 8/9, but you want to be as highly seeded as possible.

There could be upsets in 1 or 2 leagues that steal a bid. For example, Middle Tennessee could get an at large if someone else wins their conference tournament. I'm honestly not that worried after really looking at the teams around us an below us. Our wins and road record are better than most. I don't believe OOC SOS will be that high of a factor to knock us out, especially when you see that we've played the same number or more Tier 1/2 games as anyone else in the 8-11 seed range.

Another reason to feel confident is that there is no track record of us getting screwed so we shouldn't even worry about it I don't know why I'm bringing it up 20/10/4 169/170 #RIPHuggs

kso_FAN · « **Reply #2315 on:** March 06, 2018, 07:49:47 AM »

Quote from: felix rex on March 06, 2018, 07:43:44 AM

Another reason to feel confident is that there is no track record of us getting screwed so we shouldn't even worry about it I don't know why I'm bringing it up 20/10/4 169/170 #RIPHuggs

Tech deserved it over us. Our resume just wasn't that good.

KSU 2007 quality wins:
@ 25 UT
Neutral 39 USC
@ 63 Mizzou
58 OU
63 Mizzou
Neutral 71 Tech
82 NU

Tech 2007 quality wins:
@ 7 aTm
5 KU
7 aTm
@ 42 Arkansas
@ 57 KSU
58 OU
74 OSU

Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) · « **Reply #2316 on:** March 06, 2018, 08:41:45 AM »

Quote from: Powercat Posse on March 06, 2018, 12:29:41 AM

Quote from: Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) on March 05, 2018, 08:10:44 PM
I don't understand why Mich State isn't a unanimous #1 seed. I really don't get how KU is ahead of them.

This tier thing is Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)

Can't just look at the 4 losses. Yes Sparty having only 3 & 5 on Q1-Q2 wins is a big reason. They also have a 82 SOS

Nova Virginia Xavier Ku Duke all have a top 15 SOS and between 13-18 Q1-Q2 wins

So what? MSU is clearly better than KU and Xavier. They played a solid ooc and steamrolled the big 10.

Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) · « **Reply #2317 on:** March 06, 2018, 08:46:10 AM »

Again, I refuse to accept that all the large brain trust committee is going to is count tier wins. A high school intern can do that. That can't possibly be how this works. They have to subjectively evaluate teams. Otherwise you get the perversion that is TCU as a 6 and KSU as a 10.

sys · « **Reply #2318 on:** March 06, 2018, 09:43:34 AM »

Quote from: ksu_FAN1 on March 06, 2018, 06:48:18 AM

St Mary's best wins are Gonzaga, New Mexico State, and BYU. Losses to Washington State and Georgia in the OOC. They should be out.

anyone that loses to washington state and georgia has no place in the tourney. move the cows up a spot.

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #2319 on:** March 06, 2018, 11:29:35 AM »

Quote from: ksu_FAN1 on March 06, 2018, 07:00:32 AM

Back to our fun comparison with Jaime's TCU Horned Frogs....

TCU - 6 seed lock. 3-8 quad 1, 6-2 quad 2, 3-7 on the road. 12-0 vs tiers 3/4. 1-5 vs the top 3 in the Big 12.

KSU - 10 seedish. 3-7 quad 1, 6-3 quad 2. 6-5 on the road. 12-0 vs tiers 3/4. 0-6 vs the top 3 in the Big 12.

But a 40 spot difference in the RPI and 4 seed lines between these 2 teams.

The Matrix has always liked Tcu for whatever reason. There should not be 4 seeds difference between us and them.

First, Tcu doesn't project out to be a 6 seed IMO. More like a 7 seed. aTm and Miami are just 2 of the teams that are behind Tcu that should not be.

Kstate should grade out as a 9 seed. Butler for sure and probably Creighton should be below us. St Mary's and St Bony are also ahead of us right now on the Bracket Matrix concensus

So Tcu should be overall #25-26 (they are #23 on Matrix). Kstate should be #35 (#39 on Matrix)

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #2320 on:** March 06, 2018, 11:37:23 AM »

Kstate has 3/6 on the Q1-Q2 wins.
Butler & Creighton both 3/4
Butler has 1 Q3 loss. Other 2 teams don't.

Butler & Creighton only have 1 road win vs the 2 Tiers that count. Kstate has 5 vs the Q1-Q2

Sos - Butler 26 CU 45 Ksu 77. So Butler has the Strongest SOS but they also have 12 losses. Ksu and Cu have 10.

Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) · « **Reply #2321 on:** March 06, 2018, 11:42:41 AM »

Quote from: Powercat Posse on March 06, 2018, 11:37:23 AM

Kstate has 3/6 on the Q1-Q2 wins.
Butler & Creighton both 3/4
Butler has 1 Q3 loss. Other 2 teams don't.

Butler & Creighton only have 1 road win vs the 2 Tiers that count. Kstate has 5 vs the Q1-Q2

Sos - Butler 26 CU 45 Ksu 77. So Butler has the Strongest SOS but they also have 12 losses. Ksu and Cu have 10.

Yeah, well Mich State is 3/8 on Q1/Q2 (per you), yet they are a #2.....

Counting tier wins is a stupid and lazy way to do this.

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #2322 on:** March 06, 2018, 12:06:32 PM »

Actually Sparty is 3/5 on Q1-Q2 (8 total)

Sorry, I can't make you happy FSD. I actually have them as a 3 seed (#10 overall). I do think they are a top 4-5 team on eye test, but seeding isn't about eye tests.

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #2323 on:** March 06, 2018, 12:37:42 PM »

Some times, committee just does things that seem a little strange. Last year if you compare S.Carolina & Arkansas.

Ark-
24-9
14-7 counting SEC tourney
3/7 on Q1-Q2 wins
Sos 46
1 Q3 & 1 Q4 loss

SC-
21-10
12-7 counting SEC tourney
3/5 on Q1-Q2
Sos 42
1 Q3 loss

Frank got overall #26 (7 seed). Arkansas got #31 (8 seed). I would have thought they would been switched.
We didn't use this Q1-Q2 -Q3-Q4 stuff last year, but I bet committee way of figuring out things was similar to the way it is this year

mocat · « **Reply #2324 on:** March 06, 2018, 12:44:00 PM »

Quote from: ksu_FAN1 on March 06, 2018, 07:00:32 AM

Back to our fun comparison with Jaime's TCU Horned Frogs....

TCU - 6 seed lock. 3-8 quad 1, 6-2 quad 2, 3-7 on the road. 12-0 vs tiers 3/4. 1-5 vs the top 3 in the Big 12.

KSU - 10 seedish. 3-7 quad 1, 6-3 quad 2. 6-5 on the road. 12-0 vs tiers 3/4. 0-6 vs the top 3 in the Big 12.

But a 40 spot difference in the RPI and 4 seed lines between these 2 teams.

the 40 spot difference in RPI has nothing to do with quad/tier/away records. TCU has 12 top 100 wins, KSU has 9. TCU's SOS is #7, KSU's is #77.

however, based on the quad/tier/away records, there is no way they should be 4 seeds better. those are VERY similar resumes, as far as the seeding procedure is concerned.
the committee must factor NCSOS stronger than we all think (TCU 42, KSU 326)