So I was kinda right - kinda wrong. I looked back at the NCAA tourney performance of 4 teams: Kentucky, Duke, Kansas, and North Carolina, over the past 14 years (the streak). I recorded each team’s seed, the round they made it to, and gave them a score based upon whether they played below, to, or above seed. So if you’re a 1 seed and reach the FF, you played to seed and get a 0. If you’re a 1 seed and win the championship that’s 2 games above seed so you get a 2. If you’re a 2 seed and you lose in the round of 64, that’s 3 games below seed for a -3.
Here’s the results:
Kentucky has the lowest average seed of 4.5833, but also averaged an impressive .5833 against the seed.
North Carolina has an average seed of 2.4615, and averaged .1538 against the seed.
Kansas has the highest average seed of 1.7143, but averaged -0.7857 against the seed.
Duke has an average seed of 2.1429, but averaged -0.9286 against the seed.
So Duke actually underperforms a bit more than KU in the tourney despite starting with about the same seed. Kentucky generally starts with a much worse seed but far outperforms it, whereas North Carolina has the most consistent record in terms of high average seed while slightly outperforming it.
#LazySundays #Math