Middle class tax cuts are not coming out of this bill according to all data so far. You want the highest paying taxpayers to pay less...fine...but anyone hiding behind this is going to help the coal miner is ridiculous.
You're simply wrong. I'll prove it to you by running the numbers for a few basic situations.
Let's take the Smiths, your average middle class family somewhere in the Midwest. They've got three dependent children and a combined AGI of $100,000. Would you agree that's middle class? Let's assume the Smiths have $18,000 in itemized deductions. That's probably
way too high for folks with that income in the Midwest (biggest itemized deductions are typically SALT, property tax, and mortgage interest, which track pretty well to income). But whatever, let's go with it. Might be closer to accurate if the Smiths live in a higher tax, higher property value state.
Under the current code for 2017, the Smiths have a taxable income of $61,750 (after deducting their 5 personal exemptions and itemized deductions from AGI). Taxes on that income, minus a $3,000 Child Tax Credit come to $5,330 (an effective rate of 5.3%).
Under the House Plan for 2018, the Smith now have a taxable of income of $76,000 (they lose their 5 personal exemptions worth $4,050 a piece, but they are now claiming a standard deduction of $24,000 instead of itemizing). Their marginal rate on that taxable income is reduced and they're getting a $4,800 CTC, resulting in a tax bill of $1,440 (effective rate 1.4%). That's a tax cut of $3,890 and a 3.9% rate reduction.
How about if the Smiths only bring home $80,000 AGI? Let's run the same exact numbers except we'll reduce their itemized deductions to $16,000 (which makes sense in our hypothetical even though, again, this is probably too high for itemized deductions at that income, especially in the Midwest).
They'll owe $2,630 under the current code, and -$960 under the House Bill (they owe negative tax and get money back due to partial refundability of CTC). That's a tax cut of $3,590.
Now I know what you're saying - those damned "breeders" aren't representative of a Midwest family. That's (1) bullshit, and (2) irrelevant. Let's rerun the same numbers with only 1 kid....
At 100k AGI, the Smiths pay $8,545 under current law, and $4,640 under House Plan. A tax cut of $3,905.
At 80k, the Smiths pay $5,845 under current law, and $2,240 under the House Plan. A tax cut of $3,605.
Under every scenario above, a gobsmacking tax cut. The only way to get to tax increases is if you get into itemized deductions vastly in excess of the newly doubled standard deduction - something that isn't going to be common for middle class incomes except
maybe on the coasts.