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College football's post-Week 8 SP+ rankings
Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff Writer
Oct 22, 2023, 11:30 AM ET
Below are this week's SP+ rankings. What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
Here are the full rankings:
Post-Week 8 SP+ Rankings
TEAM RATING OFFENSE DEFENSE SPEC. TEAMS
1. Michigan (8-0) 28.7 39.6 (6) 11.3 (2) 0.4 (6)
2. Georgia (7-0) 24.0 38.4 (7) 14.8 (7) 0.3 (15)
3. Alabama (7-1) 22.8 36.1 (15) 13.6 (4) 0.3 (9)
4. Ohio St. (7-0) 22.1 35.6 (16) 13.7 (5) 0.3 (22)
5. Oregon (6-1) 21.4 42.7 (3) 21.4 (31) 0.1 (57)
6. Texas (6-1) 20.7 37.8 (8) 17.3 (11) 0.3 (27)
7. Washington (7-0) 20.7 40.7 (4) 20.3 (24) 0.3 (16)
8. Notre Dame (6-2) 19.8 34.6 (19) 14.7 (6) 0.0 (78)
9. Oklahoma (7-0) 19.5 40.0 (5) 20.3 (23) -0.2 (95)
10. LSU (6-2) 18.9 43.0 (2) 24.1 (47) 0.0 (80)
11. Florida St. (7-0) 18.5 37.0 (12) 18.8 (17) 0.4 (1)
12. Penn St. (6-1) 18.5 31.4 (31) 13.0 (3) 0.1 (62)
13. USC (6-2) 17.7 43.6 (1) 26.0 (65) 0.1 (48)
14. Kansas St. (5-2) 15.6 37.1 (10) 21.6 (32) 0.1 (43)
15. Oregon St. (6-1) 15.4 37.1 (11) 22.1 (35) 0.3 (11)
16. Tennessee (5-2) 15.3 34.3 (20) 19.1 (19) 0.1 (51)
17. Texas A&M (4-3) 15.2 30.8 (36) 15.3 (8) -0.2 (99)
18. Missouri (7-1) 14.9 35.0 (18) 19.9 (22) -0.1 (92)
19. Clemson (4-3) 14.9 31.2 (32) 16.3 (9) 0.0 (74)
20. UCLA (5-2) 14.2 32.5 (26) 18.0 (14) -0.2 (100)
21. Ole Miss (6-1) 13.8 35.4 (17) 21.9 (34) 0.3 (26)
22. N. Carolina (6-1) 13.4 37.4 (9) 24.1 (46) 0.0 (63)
23. Miami (5-2) 13.4 32.5 (25) 19.5 (21) 0.4 (4)
24. Utah (6-1) 12.5 30.0 (43) 17.5 (12) 0.1 (53)
25. Kentucky (5-2) 11.7 30.0 (42) 18.7 (16) 0.3 (18)
26. Duke (5-2) 11.6 30.5 (40) 19.0 (18) 0.1 (47)
27. Louisville (6-1) 10.7 31.1 (33) 20.4 (26) 0.1 (60)
28. Wisconsin (5-2) 10.5 27.8 (56) 17.7 (13) 0.3 (14)
29. TCU (4-4) 10.2 32.8 (24) 22.4 (36) -0.2 (97)
30. Florida (5-2) 9.2 32.0 (28) 23.1 (42) 0.3 (13)
31. Texas Tech (3-5) 9.0 32.4 (27) 23.6 (43) 0.2 (42)
32. Maryland (5-2) 8.9 29.7 (44) 20.7 (28) -0.1 (86)
33. UCF (3-4) 8.7 33.8 (21) 25.2 (57) 0.0 (66)
34. Arizona (4-3) 8.3 36.3 (14) 28.1 (77) 0.0 (64)
35. Air Force (7-0) 8.2 26.0 (70) 18.1 (15) 0.3 (19)
36. Kansas (5-2) 7.4 36.8 (13) 29.7 (88) 0.3 (10)
37. Iowa (6-2) 7.0 16.9 (121) 10.3 (1) 0.4 (7)
38. Iowa St. (4-3) 6.9 23.3 (85) 16.5 (10) 0.1 (45)
39. Wash. St. (4-3) 6.8 30.6 (37) 24.2 (50) 0.4 (3)
40. Oklahoma St. (5-2) 6.7 31.7 (29) 25.2 (59) 0.2 (38)
41. JMU (7-0) 5.6 28.4 (50) 23.0 (41) 0.3 (23)
42. Tulane (6-1) 4.9 30.6 (39) 25.9 (63) 0.2 (39)
43. Arkansas (2-6) 4.4 28.2 (53) 24.2 (49) 0.4 (2)
44. Auburn (3-4) 4.1 27.7 (59) 23.9 (44) 0.2 (34)
45. Miss. St. (4-3) 4.1 29.4 (45) 25.6 (60) 0.3 (20)
46. SMU (5-2) 4.0 28.7 (48) 24.4 (51) -0.4 (118)
47. Pittsburgh (2-5) 3.6 26.3 (68) 22.5 (37) -0.2 (93)
48. Syracuse (4-3) 3.6 26.4 (67) 22.9 (40) 0.0 (65)
49. Rutgers (6-2) 3.5 24.8 (79) 21.3 (29) 0.0 (76)
50. S. Carolina (2-5) 3.4 33.1 (23) 30.0 (89) 0.2 (28)
51. Liberty (7-0) 3.3 30.3 (41) 26.6 (67) -0.3 (112)
52. Troy (5-2) 3.3 23.6 (83) 20.3 (25) -0.1 (85)
53. S. Alabama (4-3) 3.3 27.8 (58) 24.7 (55) 0.3 (25)
54. NC St. (4-3) 3.2 24.2 (80) 21.3 (30) 0.3 (12)
55. Fresno St. (6-1) 3.2 27.7 (61) 24.6 (54) 0.1 (56)
56. BYU (5-2) 3.1 27.7 (62) 24.8 (56) 0.3 (24)
57. Toledo (7-1) 2.8 28.4 (51) 25.7 (62) 0.1 (50)
58. Houston (3-4) 2.5 33.3 (22) 30.7 (94) -0.1 (89)
59. Minnesota (4-3) 2.4 22.8 (90) 20.6 (27) 0.2 (29)
60. W. Virginia (4-3) 2.3 28.8 (47) 26.7 (68) 0.2 (41)
61. Nebraska (4-3) 2.1 21.6 (94) 19.1 (20) -0.3 (114)
62. Illinois (3-5) 2.0 23.7 (82) 21.7 (33) -0.1 (84)
63. Wake Forest (4-3) 1.6 25.6 (73) 24.1 (48) 0.1 (54)
64. Memphis (5-2) 1.1 31.5 (30) 30.4 (91) 0.1 (61)
65. Cincinnati (2-5) 1.0 24.9 (77) 24.0 (45) 0.0 (69)
66. Va. Tech (3-4) 0.6 23.1 (86) 22.7 (39) 0.2 (36)
67. Boise St. (3-4) 0.0 30.6 (38) 30.7 (93) 0.1 (55)
68. Baylor (3-4) -0.2 27.8 (57) 27.9 (75) 0.0 (75)
69. Michigan St. (2-5) -0.3 22.0 (92) 22.7 (38) 0.3 (17)
70. UTSA (4-3) -0.6 27.7 (60) 28.4 (79) 0.0 (68)
71. Georgia St. (6-1) -0.9 28.5 (49) 29.6 (85) 0.2 (35)
72. California (3-4) -1.0 26.6 (65) 27.1 (72) -0.4 (124)
73. Louisiana (4-3) -1.7 29.3 (46) 31.2 (100) 0.2 (33)
74. Ga. Tech (3-4) -1.8 27.8 (55) 29.4 (84) -0.2 (103)
75. Coastal Caro. (4-3) -2.3 27.0 (64) 29.1 (82) -0.2 (96)
76. Purdue (2-5) -2.3 25.1 (76) 27.0 (71) -0.4 (129)
77. Colorado (4-3) -2.5 30.9 (35) 33.2 (112) -0.2 (98)
78. Wyoming (5-2) -3.8 23.0 (88) 26.8 (69) 0.1 (59)
79. Miami-OH (6-2) -3.8 20.2 (105) 24.4 (52) 0.4 (5)
80. Virginia (2-5) -4.1 21.1 (98) 25.2 (58) 0.0 (67)
81. Marshall (4-3) -4.4 21.6 (95) 25.6 (61) -0.3 (116)
82. UNLV (6-1) -4.4 26.3 (69) 31.0 (98) 0.2 (32)
83. Boston Coll. (4-3) -4.6 25.4 (74) 30.0 (90) 0.0 (70)
84. Ohio (6-2) -4.7 20.2 (106) 24.5 (53) -0.4 (132)
85. Arizona St. (1-6) -5.0 21.4 (97) 26.1 (66) -0.3 (113)
86. San Jose St. (3-5) -5.2 26.5 (66) 31.2 (101) -0.4 (125)
87. Ga. Southern (5-2) -5.5 28.3 (52) 33.8 (115) 0.0 (79)
88. Texas St. (5-2) -5.6 23.8 (81) 29.7 (87) 0.3 (21)
89. WKU (4-3) -5.8 24.9 (78) 31.0 (97) 0.2 (30)
90. App. St. (3-4) -6.0 28.0 (54) 34.2 (118) 0.1 (44)
91. Vanderbilt (2-6) -6.2 27.4 (63) 33.6 (113) 0.1 (52)
92. NMSU (5-3) -6.6 25.8 (72) 32.4 (107) 0.0 (72)
93. Northwestern (3-4) -7.6 18.1 (117) 25.9 (64) 0.1 (49)
94. JSU (6-2) -7.8 20.3 (104) 28.0 (76) -0.1 (83)
95. Indiana (2-5) -8.7 20.9 (99) 29.7 (86) 0.1 (58)
96. Rice (4-3) -8.9 25.9 (71) 34.4 (121) -0.4 (121)
97. N. Texas (3-4) -9.2 30.9 (34) 40.3 (133) 0.2 (31)
98. Utah St. (3-5) -9.3 25.3 (75) 34.5 (122) -0.1 (82)
99. ODU (4-3) -9.3 18.4 (115) 27.3 (74) -0.3 (115)
100. FAU (3-4) -9.5 19.2 (109) 28.6 (80) -0.2 (94)
101. Stanford (2-5) -9.7 21.8 (93) 31.7 (102) 0.2 (37)
102. NIU (4-4) -9.8 19.6 (107) 29.1 (83) -0.2 (104)
103. Tulsa (3-4) -10.5 22.1 (91) 32.8 (110) 0.2 (40)
104. Navy (3-4) -11.3 17.1 (120) 28.1 (78) -0.3 (110)
105. Colorado St. (3-4) -11.6 20.9 (100) 32.5 (108) 0.1 (46)
106. San Diego St. (3-5) -11.7 19.1 (110) 30.7 (95) -0.1 (91)
107. Army (2-5) -12.4 18.2 (116) 30.5 (92) -0.1 (90)
108. La. Tech (3-5) -12.6 22.9 (89) 35.5 (126) 0.0 (81)
109. UAB (2-6) -12.9 23.0 (87) 35.5 (127) -0.4 (133)
110. MTSU (2-6) -13.0 20.4 (103) 33.0 (111) -0.3 (111)
111. Buffalo (3-5) -13.3 19.4 (108) 32.6 (109) -0.1 (87)
112. New Mexico (3-4) -13.4 23.4 (84) 36.4 (129) -0.3 (108)
113. Arkansas St. (3-4) -14.0 20.4 (101) 34.2 (119) -0.2 (102)
114. ECU (1-6) -14.1 13.4 (128) 27.1 (73) -0.4 (117)
115. BGSU (4-4) -14.2 18.5 (112) 32.4 (106) -0.4 (120)
116. USF (4-4) -15.1 21.5 (96) 36.5 (130) -0.1 (88)
117. EMU (4-4) -15.2 13.3 (129) 28.9 (81) 0.4 (8)
118. ULM (2-5) -15.6 18.7 (111) 34.1 (117) -0.2 (101)
119. So. Miss (1-6) -15.8 18.5 (113) 34.2 (120) 0.0 (73)
120. Hawaii (2-6) -16.6 20.4 (102) 37.0 (131) 0.0 (71)
121. SHSU (0-7) -16.6 10.6 (132) 26.8 (70) -0.4 (122)
122. UTEP (2-6) -16.8 15.7 (125) 32.2 (105) -0.4 (119)
123. FIU (4-4) -17.6 17.4 (118) 34.7 (124) -0.3 (107)
124. Charlotte (2-5) -18.0 13.2 (130) 30.8 (96) -0.4 (128)
125. UConn (1-6) -18.1 16.0 (123) 33.7 (114) -0.4 (130)
126. Ball St. (2-6) -18.3 14.0 (127) 32.1 (104) -0.2 (105)
127. WMU (2-6) -18.3 17.4 (119) 35.3 (125) -0.4 (126)
128. CMU (4-4) -18.7 15.4 (126) 33.9 (116) -0.3 (109)
129. Nevada (1-6) -18.9 15.9 (124) 34.6 (123) -0.3 (106)
130. Temple (2-6) -19.8 16.2 (122) 35.6 (128) -0.4 (123)
131. Akron (1-7) -21.0 11.4 (131) 32.0 (103) -0.4 (131)
132. UMass (1-7) -21.8 18.4 (114) 39.8 (132) -0.4 (127)
133. Kent St. (1-7) -25.1 6.0 (133) 31.1 (99) 0.0 (77)
This week's movers
Let's take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We're looking at ratings, not rankings.)
MOVING UP
Here are the 10 teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:
LSU: up 3.9 adjusted points per game (from 18th to 10th)
Michigan: up 3.6 (remains first)
New Mexico: up 3.4 (123rd to 112th)
Rice: up 3.2 (107th to 96th)
Missouri: up +3.0 (26th to 18th)
Boston College: up 2.9 (93rd to 83rd)
Alabama: up 2.8 (ninth to third)
Sam Houston: up 2.7 (127th to 121st)
Charlotte: up 2.4 (130th to 124th)
SMU: up 2.2 (60th to 46th)
With conference adjustments continuing to take on heavier weight each week, that benefited teams from the SEC and Pac-12 at the slight expense of the Big Ten and ACC. That Michigan still rose as many points as it did tells you quite a bit about how dominant the Wolverines continue to be, but the most interesting name here is Alabama's. SP+ was impressed by the Tide's tidy win over Tennessee; they held the edge in the efficiency and explosiveness categories and created more scoring opportunities and won by more than projected (34-20) despite an early 13-0 hole and some bad turnover luck.
Because the teams in the No. 3-11 range were so tightly clustered last week -- and because quite a few of those teams struggled in Week 8 -- their 2.8-point improvement was enough to vault them eight spots.
MOVING DOWN
Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:
Temple: down 4.0 adjusted points per game (121st to 130th)
Utah State: down 3.5 (85th to 98th)
Hawai'i: down 3.5 (109th to 120th)
Michigan State: down 3.4 (55th to 69th)
South Carolina: down 3.3 (39th to 50th)
Tulsa: down 3.0 (94th to 103rd)
Kent State: down 2.7 (132nd to 133rd)
FAU: down 2.7 (91st to 100th)
Washington: down 2.5 (fourth to seventh)
Duke: down 2.5 (22nd to 26th)
Scoring nine offensive points against an Arizona State team that allowed 21 to Southern Utah is not the best way to maintain a top-five ranking, Washington.
Conference rankings
Here are the FBS' 10 conferences, ranked by average SP+:
1. SEC: 11.1 average adjusted points per team (32.9 offense, 22.0 defense)
2. Pac-12: 8.2 average (32.9 offense, 24.6 defense)
3. Big 12: 8.1 average (32.0 offense, 24.0 defense)
4. Big Ten: 6.2 average (25.7 offense, 19.6 defense)
5. ACC: 6.1 average (28.5 offense, 22.6 defense)
6. Sun Belt: -4.9 average (24.5 offense, 29.4 defense)
7. Mountain West: -6.9 average (23.7 offense, 30.7 defense)
8. AAC: -8.6 average (22.9 offense, 31.3 defense)
9. Conference USA: -10.4 average (20.9 offense, 31.1 defense)
10. MAC: -13.3 average (17.0 offense, 30.2 defense)
The SEC continues to lead the way here, not because of a high volume of contenders -- its three top-15 teams are merely equal to the Big 12 and Big Ten and behind the Pac-12's four -- but because of a low volume of dead weight. Only one SEC team ranks outside the top 50, compared to the Pac-12's four, the Big 12's five and the Big Ten's seven.
Résumé SP+
Since the College Football Playoff rankings are on the horizon, I'm also including résumé SP+ rankings in this piece each week.
As mentioned above, SP+ is intended to be a power rating, not a résumé evaluation tool, but résumé SP+ attempts to fill that latter gap. It is a look at two things: (1) how the average SP+ top-five team would be projected to perform against your schedule (in terms of scoring margin), and (2) how your scoring margin compares to (1). Throw in a seven-point penalty for every loss a team has suffered, and you can say that this is what the CFP rankings would look like if SP+ were in charge.
(Note: Because of the high bar teams have to clear in getting compared to an average top-five team, and because of the loss adjustment, most of these teams end up with a negative score. It is what it is.)
Here is this week's résumé SP+ top 15:
1. Michigan (8-0), +7.5 PPG
2. Ohio State (7-0), +4.3
3. Florida State (7-0), +3.7
4. Oklahoma (7-0), +3.2
5. Washington (7-0), +0.2
6. Georgia (7-0), -0.4
7. Penn State (6-1), -2.2
8. Oregon (6-1), -4.4
9. Texas (6-1), -7.2
10. Ole Miss (6-1), -9.7
11. Oregon State (6-1), -9.9
12. Alabama (7-1), -10.5
13. Kansas State (5-2), -11.8
14. Utah (6-1), -13.8
15. Air Force (7-0), -14.0
Other unbeatens:
17. James Madison (7-0), -16.2
22. Liberty (7-0), -19.2
Another competitive loss to Ohio State -- an annual tradition -- leaves Penn State as your highest-ranked one-loss team, ahead of Oregon and a Texas team that struggled to put away Houston. But the top name on the list shouldn't be a surprise. I always like to say it's how you play, not who you play, and while Michigan hasn't played any interesting "whos," the how is unquestionable at this point: The Wolverines are really, really good, illegal scouting methods or no illegal scouting methods.