I think we know the answer:
Mark Leibovich (@MarkLeibovich) Tweeted:
Who wins a head-to-head GOP primary today between Romney and MTG?
four years is a long time away, but right now i'm not sure romney would even win a primary to run for reelection to the senate.
The fact that nutcases like Greene, Goetz and Boebert are able to win elections (even if it is in a backwater congressional district) really dismays me. These people are totally detached from reality.
This is a good argument for not convicting Trump, imo. I am not saying that this should be the route taken, but if trump is convicted, he will pull out of the GOP and do the his own party thing. That will fracture the GOP for the foreseeable future. If that doesn't happen, the Mitch's can fight from inside to squash the MAGA out. You already see Mitch trying to do a little of that with MTG.
I personally, want trump convicted, but understand it isn't going to happen. the incentives are misaligned. Due to the party split that would happen, most of the incumbent Pubs would have a hard time winning re-election against dems with a split party. They aren't voting on Don. they are voting to keep their jobs next go 'round.