Author Topic: Coaching Carousel Master Thread (MAYBE FEATURING THE KSU CATS?)  (Read 933768 times)

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Offline Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)

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Re: Coaching Carousel Master Thread (MAYBE FEATURING THE KSU CATS?)
« Reply #4525 on: March 19, 2016, 12:37:08 PM »
Rutgers hired the Stony Point or whatevs guy
goEMAW Karmic BBS Shepherd

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Coaching Carousel Master Thread (MAYBE FEATURING THE KSU CATS?)
« Reply #4526 on: March 19, 2016, 12:38:23 PM »
Another thing to consider is  Fan is right that Currie isn't stupid, which is why he wouldn't fire a coach showing any improvement in consecutive seasons after letting him blow up the roster and rebuild.

This team did not show any improvement from last season.
It was perceived as improvement by many. Plus a better overall record and NIT bubble.

Some believe this, sure. But I don't think its majority or even 50% right now.

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Re: Coaching Carousel Master Thread (MAYBE FEATURING THE KSU CATS?)
« Reply #4527 on: March 19, 2016, 12:38:59 PM »


And perception is all that matters.

You're making assumptions about Currie's perception to fit your own narrative. We have no idea how this season is perceived by oscar's bosses. There is simply no way the administration has their fingers stuck in their ears. The grumbling has gone far beyond a couple dozen of annoying goEMAW posters.

I'm assuming Currie doesn't care about how the basketball team performs as long as there is enough revenue and no NCAA headaches. The perception I'm referring to is that of the fans buying tickets. I think a lot of that grumbling goes away if next we have a bubble team next year. If fans think we're improving and therefore buying tickets, Weber is indefinitely safe.

Offline sys

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Re: Coaching Carousel Master Thread (MAYBE FEATURING THE KSU CATS?)
« Reply #4528 on: March 19, 2016, 12:40:14 PM »
the narrative is no longer confined to kstate's team and their performance.  underwood is placing an enormous amount of pressure on them.  it'll be transitory if he leaves the region, but if he goes to tcu or osu, that pressure will be constant (if he does well).

currie is smart enough to see that too.  weber cannot survive a successful underwood in the big 12.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline Ptolemy

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Re: Coaching Carousel Master Thread (MAYBE FEATURING THE KSU CATS?)
« Reply #4529 on: March 19, 2016, 01:05:26 PM »
did not show any improvement from last season.
It was perceived as improvement by many. Plus a better overall record and NIT bubble.
[/quote]

The only way that "many" saw this year as improvement was if "many" are oscar Weber fans and make excuses. Nobody with an objective eye can see a far worse conference record as an improvement, especially with THIS Big 12. Season ticket sales will show it.

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Re: Coaching Carousel Master Thread (MAYBE FEATURING THE KSU CATS?)
« Reply #4530 on: March 19, 2016, 01:10:19 PM »
kenpom is objective.  kstate unambiguously performed better in 2016 than 2015.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

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Re: Coaching Carousel Master Thread (MAYBE FEATURING THE KSU CATS?)
« Reply #4531 on: March 19, 2016, 01:11:47 PM »
kenpom is objective.  kstate unambiguously performed better in 2016 than 2015.

I guess there is value in not having the bad losses that we had last year, but last year was also much better against quality opponents.

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Re: Coaching Carousel Master Thread (MAYBE FEATURING THE KSU CATS?)
« Reply #4532 on: March 19, 2016, 01:14:12 PM »
I guess there is value in not having the bad losses that we had last year, but last year was also much better against quality opponents.

they were very different years.  you could devise a system that overweights performance against higher quality opponents and it would give you different numbers.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline michigancat

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Re: Coaching Carousel Master Thread (MAYBE FEATURING THE KSU CATS?)
« Reply #4533 on: March 19, 2016, 01:17:28 PM »
Kenpom performance is irrelevant to AD's, season ticket holders, and selection committees

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Re: Coaching Carousel Master Thread (MAYBE FEATURING THE KSU CATS?)
« Reply #4534 on: March 19, 2016, 01:18:46 PM »
You can't possibly think that, you're smarter than that. When most people post that it's because they're trolling. If oscar has another season like this one next year, he's obviously going to get fired. We can't have what OSU has had throughout the Ford era. We cannot afford to be playing conference games in front of 4000 people.

I'll bet every dollar I have that two years from today either Weber or Currie will be gone, odds are heavily in my favor.

I agree. Currie may be stubborn because this is his hire, but he's not that stupid.

I've said, many times, that Currie is first and foremost a CFO.  His gift, and what's gotten him the vast majority of his goodwill here is how well he handles the department, financially.

I went and looked at the available Equity in Athletics reports that are out on the KSU site.  We are consistently running a profit of about $2.2-2.6 million the majority of years, even going back to Frank.  I'm not sure what made Frank's last year so much different (maybe BTF funds getting put into this number...), but regardless of how we monkey with the prices, the margin is roughly the same.

2014-2015: ~$2.36 million
2013-2014: ~$2.65 million
2012-2013: ~$2.22 million
2011-2012: ~$4.76 million
2010-2011: ~$2.59 million

It's been two years since oscar has been extended, so he has three years left on his deal. The last copy of the contract that I saw said we had to pay him $2.5 million to terminate his deal, or if the sum total of his remaining contract is less, that's what we owe.  Since he'll make around $2.2 million there at the end of his deal, we're out $2+ million, regardless. 

Considering that the margins have mostly been static, even going back to Pullen's last year, to make sense, financially, we'd have to see a $500k per year increase in margin for five years before it made financial sense to get rid of oscar.  And, historically, we just haven't seen that kind of positive YOY growth outside that one year, which is kind of an anomaly.

This is why Currie can stubbornly hold onto him, especially if we're "right there".  It will be enough to keep the fans buying tickets at the point where he can realistically sit behind the financial justification.  In fact, even if a number of donors want to come to him and complain, he can just say that the $2.5 million is a big set back to the East Side renovations, or a redesign of the Bramlage concourse, etc.

Now, as I said, if the big donors that are writing those multi-million dollar checks get together and say THAT pool of funds is going to get impacted if he doesn't make a move on oscar, he will have to move.  But historically, we've found ways to have a consistent profit margin in basketball, and manipulating ticket prices to inflate attendance will allow Currie to stand behind his coach as long as he keeps expenses in check.




Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Coaching Carousel Master Thread (MAYBE FEATURING THE KSU CATS?)
« Reply #4535 on: March 19, 2016, 01:22:47 PM »
You can't possibly think that, you're smarter than that. When most people post that it's because they're trolling. If oscar has another season like this one next year, he's obviously going to get fired. We can't have what OSU has had throughout the Ford era. We cannot afford to be playing conference games in front of 4000 people.

I'll bet every dollar I have that two years from today either Weber or Currie will be gone, odds are heavily in my favor.

I agree. Currie may be stubborn because this is his hire, but he's not that stupid.

I've said, many times, that Currie is first and foremost a CFO.  His gift, and what's gotten him the vast majority of his goodwill here is how well he handles the department, financially.

I went and looked at the available Equity in Athletics reports that are out on the KSU site.  We are consistently running a profit of about $2.2-2.6 million the majority of years, even going back to Frank.  I'm not sure what made Frank's last year so much different (maybe BTF funds getting put into this number...), but regardless of how we monkey with the prices, the margin is roughly the same.

2014-2015: ~$2.36 million
2013-2014: ~$2.65 million
2012-2013: ~$2.22 million
2011-2012: ~$4.76 million
2010-2011: ~$2.59 million

It's been two years since oscar has been extended, so he has three years left on his deal. The last copy of the contract that I saw said we had to pay him $2.5 million to terminate his deal, or if the sum total of his remaining contract is less, that's what we owe.  Since he'll make around $2.2 million there at the end of his deal, we're out $2+ million, regardless. 

Considering that the margins have mostly been static, even going back to Pullen's last year, to make sense, financially, we'd have to see a $500k per year increase in margin for five years before it made financial sense to get rid of oscar.  And, historically, we just haven't seen that kind of positive YOY growth outside that one year, which is kind of an anomaly.

This is why Currie can stubbornly hold onto him, especially if we're "right there".  It will be enough to keep the fans buying tickets at the point where he can realistically sit behind the financial justification.  In fact, even if a number of donors want to come to him and complain, he can just say that the $2.5 million is a big set back to the East Side renovations, or a redesign of the Bramlage concourse, etc.

Now, as I said, if the big donors that are writing those multi-million dollar checks get together and say THAT pool of funds is going to get impacted if he doesn't make a move on oscar, he will have to move.  But historically, we've found ways to have a consistent profit margin in basketball, and manipulating ticket prices to inflate attendance will allow Currie to stand behind his coach as long as he keeps expenses in check.





Good points.

FTR, as BBB as I've been, I realize its pretty moot at this point. oscar is back next year and its probable he does well enough to stay for a while. That said, I've still enjoyed this brief period of BBB.

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Re: Coaching Carousel Master Thread (MAYBE FEATURING THE KSU CATS?)
« Reply #4536 on: March 19, 2016, 01:24:45 PM »
the narrative is no longer confined to kstate's team and their performance.  underwood is placing an enormous amount of pressure on them.  it'll be transitory if he leaves the region, but if he goes to tcu or osu, that pressure will be constant (if he does well).

currie is smart enough to see that too.  weber cannot survive a successful underwood in the big 12.

weber won't survive a successful big 12 underwood but that point is moot because if seeing a successful big 12 underwood is what gets oscar canned, then Currie is actually not smart enough.


currie shouldn't have to see a house in ashes to realize a fire might destroy one.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Coaching Carousel Master Thread (MAYBE FEATURING THE KSU CATS?)
« Reply #4537 on: March 19, 2016, 01:30:54 PM »
kenpom is objective.  kstate unambiguously performed better in 2016 than 2015.

I guess there is value in not having the bad losses that we had last year, but last year was also much better against quality opponents.

they were very different years.  you could devise a system that overweights performance against higher quality opponents and it would give you different numbers.

 :confused:

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Coaching Carousel Master Thread (MAYBE FEATURING THE KSU CATS?)
« Reply #4538 on: March 19, 2016, 01:31:49 PM »

the narrative is no longer confined to kstate's team and their performance.  underwood is placing an enormous amount of pressure on them.  it'll be transitory if he leaves the region, but if he goes to tcu or osu, that pressure will be constant (if he does well).

currie is smart enough to see that too.  weber cannot survive a successful underwood in the big 12.

weber won't survive a successful big 12 underwood but that point is moot because if seeing a successful big 12 underwood is what gets oscar canned, then Currie is actually not smart enough.


currie shouldn't have to see a house in ashes to realize a fire might destroy one.

I still think moving houses is a better option than buying fire insurance at the going rate for Currie.


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Offline sys

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Re: Coaching Carousel Master Thread (MAYBE FEATURING THE KSU CATS?)
« Reply #4539 on: March 19, 2016, 01:33:12 PM »
if they sell 9k tickets next year instead of 11k, that's $2 million plus.  kstaters might surprise me, but i'd expect underwood driven tickets sales alone would contribute enough revenue to offset weber's buyout.

i don't think budget constraints have any bearing on weber vs underwood.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

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Re: Coaching Carousel Master Thread (MAYBE FEATURING THE KSU CATS?)
« Reply #4540 on: March 19, 2016, 01:33:57 PM »
the narrative is no longer confined to kstate's team and their performance.  underwood is placing an enormous amount of pressure on them.  it'll be transitory if he leaves the region, but if he goes to tcu or osu, that pressure will be constant (if he does well).

currie is smart enough to see that too.  weber cannot survive a successful underwood in the big 12.

I agree with this, but I think a lot of us are projecting what we want to happen (which is also logical), and I agree with MC that Currie's main goal in basketball is to have static revenue with limited to no NCAA infractions.  oscar provides these things.

I believe Currie looks at football in a vacuum and everything else is on the periphery.  For basketball and non-revenue sports, he wants them to win enough to either make X amount of dollars or only lose Y amount of dollars, and he doesn't want them to put the rest of his department in jeopardy.

Underwood pressure will have to come from the big money.  Average KSU fans, from the comments of pockets that I've seen on Facebook, Twitter, etc., are fine with oscar because they believe we're right on the doorstep.  And I agree with others that we're likely to see a Texas Tech like year next year, and that's going to give Currie the justification to push forward because that same 10-11k will renew their season tickets to keep our margins in that $2.2-$2.6 million range.

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Re: Coaching Carousel Master Thread (MAYBE FEATURING THE KSU CATS?)
« Reply #4541 on: March 19, 2016, 01:37:34 PM »
Either the conference RPI will suck next year and we won't get in because of it, or the conference will be good and we won't get in because we win very few conference games again. The talent we have coming in vs. what we're replacing is not a big enough boost to overcome either of those things. We are losing the only guy on our team that could drive the lane, and he also happened to be our leading scorer. Probably slight improvement from some guys, but Budke is going to be playing significant minutes on this team again next year, because no way that both of those big men from last year (Williams and Maurice) will be contributors on this team, maybe neither of them will be. We just weren't nearly as close as oscar told everyone that we were. Our RPI was 90th, seriously doubt it will jump over 50 spots next year. Guess I could be wrong, but I'm not.
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Re: Coaching Carousel Master Thread (MAYBE FEATURING THE KSU CATS?)
« Reply #4542 on: March 19, 2016, 01:37:52 PM »
if they sell 9k tickets next year instead of 11k, that's $2 million plus.  kstaters might surprise me, but i'd expect underwood driven tickets sales alone would contribute enough revenue to offset weber's buyout.

i don't think budget constraints have any bearing on weber vs underwood.

We're returning almost the entire team of 5-heart try hards, including fan favorites DJamer and Wes, a Top 100 recruit, and we had a white kid from St. John on the All-Big 12 freshman team.

Now, I could be wrong, but if I know John Q. Average KSU Fan well enough, I think those things will see a spike in season ticket sales.  I could be surprised as well, but our aggregate fan base seems to care about some weird things.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Coaching Carousel Master Thread (MAYBE FEATURING THE KSU CATS?)
« Reply #4543 on: March 19, 2016, 01:39:20 PM »
You can't possibly think that, you're smarter than that. When most people post that it's because they're trolling. If oscar has another season like this one next year, he's obviously going to get fired. We can't have what OSU has had throughout the Ford era. We cannot afford to be playing conference games in front of 4000 people.

I'll bet every dollar I have that two years from today either Weber or Currie will be gone, odds are heavily in my favor.

I agree. Currie may be stubborn because this is his hire, but he's not that stupid.

I've said, many times, that Currie is first and foremost a CFO.  His gift, and what's gotten him the vast majority of his goodwill here is how well he handles the department, financially.

I went and looked at the available Equity in Athletics reports that are out on the KSU site.  We are consistently running a profit of about $2.2-2.6 million the majority of years, even going back to Frank.  I'm not sure what made Frank's last year so much different (maybe BTF funds getting put into this number...), but regardless of how we monkey with the prices, the margin is roughly the same.

2014-2015: ~$2.36 million
2013-2014: ~$2.65 million
2012-2013: ~$2.22 million
2011-2012: ~$4.76 million
2010-2011: ~$2.59 million

It's been two years since oscar has been extended, so he has three years left on his deal. The last copy of the contract that I saw said we had to pay him $2.5 million to terminate his deal, or if the sum total of his remaining contract is less, that's what we owe.  Since he'll make around $2.2 million there at the end of his deal, we're out $2+ million, regardless. 

Considering that the margins have mostly been static, even going back to Pullen's last year, to make sense, financially, we'd have to see a $500k per year increase in margin for five years before it made financial sense to get rid of oscar.  And, historically, we just haven't seen that kind of positive YOY growth outside that one year, which is kind of an anomaly.

This is why Currie can stubbornly hold onto him, especially if we're "right there".  It will be enough to keep the fans buying tickets at the point where he can realistically sit behind the financial justification.  In fact, even if a number of donors want to come to him and complain, he can just say that the $2.5 million is a big set back to the East Side renovations, or a redesign of the Bramlage concourse, etc.

Now, as I said, if the big donors that are writing those multi-million dollar checks get together and say THAT pool of funds is going to get impacted if he doesn't make a move on oscar, he will have to move.  But historically, we've found ways to have a consistent profit margin in basketball, and manipulating ticket prices to inflate attendance will allow Currie to stand behind his coach as long as he keeps expenses in check.

Incomplete picture though. I'd like to see what revenues and expenditures look like, it's completely possible that the athletic department has a mandate that the basketball program remain at a certain profit margin, that steady profit sure makes it seem that way.

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Re: Coaching Carousel Master Thread (MAYBE FEATURING THE KSU CATS?)
« Reply #4544 on: March 19, 2016, 01:40:11 PM »
Good points.

FTR, as BBB as I've been, I realize its pretty moot at this point. oscar is back next year and its probable he does well enough to stay for a while. That said, I've still enjoyed this brief period of BBB.

As I've said on BOTC many times, the day we have Brent Venables and Brad Underwood running our programs is the day I'm so happy that I'm running stark naked down Metcalf.

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Re: Coaching Carousel Master Thread (MAYBE FEATURING THE KSU CATS?)
« Reply #4545 on: March 19, 2016, 01:41:29 PM »
if they sell 9k tickets next year instead of 11k, that's $2 million plus.  kstaters might surprise me, but i'd expect underwood driven tickets sales alone would contribute enough revenue to offset weber's buyout.

i don't think budget constraints have any bearing on weber vs underwood.

We're returning almost the entire team of 5-heart try hards, including fan favorites DJamer and Wes, a Top 100 recruit, and we had a white kid from St. John on the All-Big 12 freshman team.

Now, I could be wrong, but if I know John Q. Average KSU Fan well enough, I think those things will see a spike in season ticket sales.  I could be surprised as well, but our aggregate fan base seems to care about some weird things.
Well put

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Re: Coaching Carousel Master Thread (MAYBE FEATURING THE KSU CATS?)
« Reply #4546 on: March 19, 2016, 01:42:51 PM »

the narrative is no longer confined to kstate's team and their performance.  underwood is placing an enormous amount of pressure on them.  it'll be transitory if he leaves the region, but if he goes to tcu or osu, that pressure will be constant (if he does well).

currie is smart enough to see that too.  weber cannot survive a successful underwood in the big 12.

weber won't survive a successful big 12 underwood but that point is moot because if seeing a successful big 12 underwood is what gets oscar canned, then Currie is actually not smart enough.


currie shouldn't have to see a house in ashes to realize a fire might destroy one.

I still think moving houses is a better option than buying fire insurance at the going rate for Currie.


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I agree, but I am not an incredible dumbass like Currie. It isn't like Brad couldn't come in an win with this "nucleus". But Weber will get next year (and the year after at a minimum) and Brad will leave SFA for OSU or somewhere else and that will be that.

Curtis will not fire oscar until he absolutely has to. And our stupid ass fan base [and major donors] won't demand that until it is too late.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Coaching Carousel Master Thread (MAYBE FEATURING THE KSU CATS?)
« Reply #4547 on: March 19, 2016, 01:44:30 PM »

the narrative is no longer confined to kstate's team and their performance.  underwood is placing an enormous amount of pressure on them.  it'll be transitory if he leaves the region, but if he goes to tcu or osu, that pressure will be constant (if he does well).

currie is smart enough to see that too.  weber cannot survive a successful underwood in the big 12.

weber won't survive a successful big 12 underwood but that point is moot because if seeing a successful big 12 underwood is what gets oscar canned, then Currie is actually not smart enough.


currie shouldn't have to see a house in ashes to realize a fire might destroy one.

I still think moving houses is a better option than buying fire insurance at the going rate for Currie.


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Can we go back to my point that Brad may very well be the third or fourth option for OSU? We can absolutely get him from TCU anytime we want.

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Re: Coaching Carousel Master Thread (MAYBE FEATURING THE KSU CATS?)
« Reply #4548 on: March 19, 2016, 01:45:42 PM »
Incomplete picture though. I'd like to see what revenues and expenditures look like, it's completely possible that the athletic department has a mandate that the basketball program remain at a certain profit margin, that steady profit sure makes it seem that way.

I can try to pull that later tonight, but if the mandate is that we hit "plan" every year, and we can do that with oscar, we'll make a move in two years when we have one year left on his deal and there's no extension in sight. 

I will concede that Currie isn't stupid enough to have a lame duck coach, and it mimimizes the buyout as much as possible.  It also takes this class of Freshmen through their junior year, and if they've stuck around, they're more likely to stay for the new guy as Seniors to bridge the transition.  If they have two years left to play, it probably increases the likelihood that they'd leave.

Two years from now makes the most financial sense with the greatest opportunity to maintain a full roster for the new coach.

Again, I'm not advocating this.  Two years of Weber makes me want to vomit, but if I'm Currie, and my scoreboard is financial, not literal, this is where my head is at.

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Re: Coaching Carousel Master Thread (MAYBE FEATURING THE KSU CATS?)
« Reply #4549 on: March 19, 2016, 01:48:46 PM »
Let's be realistic, K-State is much more likely to have 2 more years of oscar than to have Brad coach here ever. Like by a lot.