i think silver has said he'd guess that orourke has something like a 20% chance at the senate seat. that was just a ballpark guess, not a result from a model and it was several polls ago, so he might guess a little lower now.
but regardless, this is a thread for 2020 presidential candidates, not 2018 texas senate candidates. winning the senate seat might be detrimental to him deciding to run for president. at any rate, it certainly isn't necessary for him to win the senate seat in order to run for president. i mention him in this thread because he's the only young democrat i've noticed with a shred of charisma (other than deval patrick, maybe).