CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread

[steve dave]

That’s why I said very early on that if you were holding commercial REIT you need to take your lumps and get out.


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[Phil Titola]

yeah i think it's pretty likely commercially real estate could be pretty fukt by this.

It was going to happen one way or the other but Covid has accelerated it by about 20 years. The cost savings is too big to give back and the forced adoption of virtual technology has made it pointless to try in a lot of industries. I work for a pretty jumbo global outfit and I think we will be closing all regional offices for good once the leases expire. And those leases are being negotiated out of as we speak so maybe sooner. Sure, there will be some industries that still have to be in the offices, but there are a lot that thought they did before Covid and have quickly realized they don’t. On a related topic business travel will never reach pre-Covid levels. Ever.


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There will definately be some major changes but it won't be as dramatic as it looks now in either case (travel or office occupancy)

Remind me in 10 years and we can see.

[DQ12]

That’s why I said very early on that if you were holding commercial REIT you need to take your lumps and get out.


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I moved all my commercial REITs directly into the American Steel Industry.

[sonofdaxjones]

The whole argument is dumb.  Mathematically, more testing will result in more reported cases (assuming the prior amount of testing wasn't catching all cases).  That really shouldn't be debated.

Yep

[Bqqkie Pimp]

Facebqqkie posted that.

eff you.  Get your material somewhere else.

[steve dave]

That’s why I said very early on that if you were holding commercial REIT you need to take your lumps and get out.


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I moved all my commercial REITs directly into the American Steel Industry.

damn, you're very good

[Spracne]

yeah i think it's pretty likely commercially real estate could be pretty fukt by this.

It was going to happen one way or the other but Covid has accelerated it by about 20 years. The cost savings is too big to give back and the forced adoption of virtual technology has made it pointless to try in a lot of industries. I work for a pretty jumbo global outfit and I think we will be closing all regional offices for good once the leases expire. And those leases are being negotiated out of as we speak so maybe sooner. Sure, there will be some industries that still have to be in the offices, but there are a lot that thought they did before Covid and have quickly realized they don’t. On a related topic business travel will never reach pre-Covid levels. Ever.


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There will definately be some major changes but it won't be as dramatic as it looks now in either case (travel or office occupancy)

Remind me in 10 years and we can see.

As if this blog will be around in 10 years...

[Phil Titola]

yeah i think it's pretty likely commercially real estate could be pretty fukt by this.

It was going to happen one way or the other but Covid has accelerated it by about 20 years. The cost savings is too big to give back and the forced adoption of virtual technology has made it pointless to try in a lot of industries. I work for a pretty jumbo global outfit and I think we will be closing all regional offices for good once the leases expire. And those leases are being negotiated out of as we speak so maybe sooner. Sure, there will be some industries that still have to be in the offices, but there are a lot that thought they did before Covid and have quickly realized they don’t. On a related topic business travel will never reach pre-Covid levels. Ever.


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There will definately be some major changes but it won't be as dramatic as it looks now in either case (travel or office occupancy)

Remind me in 10 years and we can see.

As if this blog will be around in 10 years...

Nobody will blog in big groups ever again
 #newnormal

[WildcatNkilt]

yeah i think it's pretty likely commercially real estate could be pretty fukt by this.

It was going to happen one way or the other but Covid has accelerated it by about 20 years. The cost savings is too big to give back and the forced adoption of virtual technology has made it pointless to try in a lot of industries. I work for a pretty jumbo global outfit and I think we will be closing all regional offices for good once the leases expire. And those leases are being negotiated out of as we speak so maybe sooner. Sure, there will be some industries that still have to be in the offices, but there are a lot that thought they did before Covid and have quickly realized they don’t. On a related topic business travel will never reach pre-Covid levels. Ever.


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There will definately be some major changes but it won't be as dramatic as it looks now in either case (travel or office occupancy)

Remind me in 10 years and we can see.

I'm already seeing in my line of business, which is Collaboration Technology.  I have a customer who was going to build a 4th building on their campus, and now they have scrapped it after realizing their employees can work efficiently at home.  Organizations who weren't 100% bought into video have finally jumped all in.

The trend in office space was more huddle conference rooms versus rooms that hold 10+.  That has all of a sudden stopped and organizations are creating larger conference rooms so social distancing can be practiced. 

People will want to go back when COVID is over, but I do not ever see an office building constantly occupied by 80% of what it was pre-COVID.

So yea...Steve Dave is correct.  Commercial Real-Estate will be taking a huge hit.  Many organizations will downsize their space.  Huddle rooms will be turned into larger conference rooms.  Technology in the spaces are working towards no-touch meeting join. 

It's been super busy (good kind) in my world over the last 4 months.   

[Phil Titola]

yeah i think it's pretty likely commercially real estate could be pretty fukt by this.

It was going to happen one way or the other but Covid has accelerated it by about 20 years. The cost savings is too big to give back and the forced adoption of virtual technology has made it pointless to try in a lot of industries. I work for a pretty jumbo global outfit and I think we will be closing all regional offices for good once the leases expire. And those leases are being negotiated out of as we speak so maybe sooner. Sure, there will be some industries that still have to be in the offices, but there are a lot that thought they did before Covid and have quickly realized they don’t. On a related topic business travel will never reach pre-Covid levels. Ever.


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There will definately be some major changes but it won't be as dramatic as it looks now in either case (travel or office occupancy)

Remind me in 10 years and we can see.

I'm already seeing in my line of business, which is Collaboration Technology.  I have a customer who was going to build a 4th building on their campus, and now they have scrapped it after realizing their employees can work efficiently at home.  Organizations who weren't 100% bought into video have finally jumped all in.

The trend in office space was more huddle conference rooms versus rooms that hold 10+.  That has all of a sudden stopped and organizations are creating larger conference rooms so social distancing can be practiced. 

People will want to go back when COVID is over, but I do not ever see an office building constantly occupied by 80% of what it was pre-COVID.

So yea...Steve Dave is correct.  Commercial Real-Estate will be taking a huge hit.  Many organizations will downsize their space.  Huddle rooms will be turned into larger conference rooms.  Technology in the spaces are working towards no-touch meeting join. 

It's been super busy (good kind) in my world over the last 4 months.

You definately have a perspective that would lead you down that path.  I'm just saying we aren't at a conclusion 4 months into a pandemic.  Everybody that works in an office environment can see office space usage is going to change versus how it looked in 2019.

[WildcatNkilt]

Talking about corporate real-estate got me thinking about population density.

I'm curious if COVID will create the trend of people moving to the suburbs in favor of larger living spaces. 

I've spoken with people who live in small apartments or lofts downtown.  They say social distancing and working from home while living downtown is miserable.  What they loved about living downtown has been taken away from them.   

I know a few people who are house searching because they can no longer tolerate the close quarters of a downtown apartment.  Do any of you live downtown?  Does it suck right now? 

[steve dave]

Not going back to the office won’t have anything to do with Covid. The capital savings is massive. Nobody is going to put that back on the books without a very big need for it. And people have realized the need isn’t there. It was going to happen either way eventually.


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[steve dave]

Talking about corporate real-estate got me thinking about population density.

I'm curious if COVID will create the trend of people moving to the suburbs in favor of larger living spaces. 

I've spoken with people who live in small apartments or lofts downtown.  They say social distancing and working from home while living downtown is miserable.  What they loved about living downtown has been taken away from them.   

I know a few people who are house searching because they can no longer tolerate the close quarters of a downtown apartment.  Do any of you live downtown?  Does it suck right now?

I’ll tell you what you can’t find right now. A house with a damn pool.


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[Spracne]

Talking about corporate real-estate got me thinking about population density.

I'm curious if COVID will create the trend of people moving to the suburbs in favor of larger living spaces. 

I've spoken with people who live in small apartments or lofts downtown.  They say social distancing and working from home while living downtown is miserable.  What they loved about living downtown has been taken away from them.   

I know a few people who are house searching because they can no longer tolerate the close quarters of a downtown apartment.  Do any of you live downtown?  Does it suck right now?

I don't feel cooped up here, as my place is naturally spacious and luxurious. Still, the only reason I live here is because I hate long commutes. If remote work became the norm, I would move to the Exburbs and get like 5 to 20 acres to eff around on.

[Phil Titola]

Talking about corporate real-estate got me thinking about population density.

I'm curious if COVID will create the trend of people moving to the suburbs in favor of larger living spaces. 

I've spoken with people who live in small apartments or lofts downtown.  They say social distancing and working from home while living downtown is miserable.  What they loved about living downtown has been taken away from them.   

I know a few people who are house searching because they can no longer tolerate the close quarters of a downtown apartment.  Do any of you live downtown?  Does it suck right now?

I live in a condo downtown because I prefer to not be home much and WFH combined with lockdown / not being able to travel has made it feel uncomfortably small.  I haven't once thought of moving because I chose to be here for location to fun stuff, walkability, and ease of maintenance.  I haven't found being able to distance hard at all, few are downtown anymore and we have a boat load of neighborhoods/parks to enjoy.

I could see some wanting to bail out of the situation though as they feel encased in their condo/apartment.  I can say condos are flying off the shelf quicker  than ever with prices rising during this so who knows. 

[Phil Titola]

Not going back to the office won’t have anything to do with Covid. The capital savings is massive. Nobody is going to put that back on the books without a very big need for it. And people have realized the need isn’t there. It was going to happen either way eventually.


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Gotta get it off the books first.  While "we can be just as productive at home" is the phrase of the summer, longterm maintaining that productivity is not a foregone conclusion.  It will swing one way then swing back is my guess.

[Dugout DickStone]

The ability to be just as productive at home for the rest of our lives is highly dubious.  In my field, offices will always exist.

[Trim]

What if office space construction/demand increases because offices are still desirable but it takes even more room to adequately get people in there with the necessary spacing?

[bucket]

AL Mortality Rate:  2%

Hospitalization rate since 3/13 6.2%

ICU required 1.7%

Intubation 1/100%

Current Hospitalizations:  1,113  7% of total staffed beds

https://twitter.com/ChallenStephens/status/1281642680288595968

Good luck, buddy 

[sonofdaxjones]

As of 10am this morning 3-7-14 day averages were down off their peaks.   We'll just have to see.



I'm not saying things are great but reading al.com is the surest way to get very depressed.   

They're very negative all the time.

[Dugout DickStone]

I'm not gona dax out but jeez it would be good to discuss some positives.

[chum1]

Still at it.

https://twitter.com/eilperin/status/1281642215958360064

[sonofdaxjones]

I didn't see the reports from the American Academy of Physicians and Surgeons (Chum1)

[Phil Titola]

AL Mortality Rate:  2%

Hospitalization rate since 3/13 6.2%

ICU required 1.7%

Intubation 1/100%

Current Hospitalizations:  1,113  7% of total staffed beds

https://twitter.com/ChallenStephens/status/1281642680288595968

Good luck, buddy 

Gottleib pointed this out today.  We needed to have a national strategy on how we are going to tackle this like every other country.  Instead of have states (counties) doing whichever and it's going to drag this thing on longer unless we just close down state lines.

Idiotic. 

[DaBigTrain]

Talking about corporate real-estate got me thinking about population density.

I'm curious if COVID will create the trend of people moving to the suburbs in favor of larger living spaces. 

I've spoken with people who live in small apartments or lofts downtown.  They say social distancing and working from home while living downtown is miserable.  What they loved about living downtown has been taken away from them.   

I know a few people who are house searching because they can no longer tolerate the close quarters of a downtown apartment.  Do any of you live downtown?  Does it suck right now?

I live in a condo downtown because I prefer to not be home much and WFH combined with lockdown / not being able to travel has made it feel uncomfortably small.  I haven't once thought of moving because I chose to be here for location to fun stuff, walkability, and ease of maintenance.  I haven't found being able to distance hard at all, few are downtown anymore and we have a boat load of neighborhoods/parks to enjoy.

I could see some wanting to bail out of the situation though as they feel encased in their condo/apartment.  I can say condos are flying off the shelf quicker  than ever with prices rising during this so who knows.

I have been downtown like 3 times since this whole thing started.  The only reason has just been driving around, since the office has been closed, although it is partially open to some now.

I have a very spacious 2 bedroom apartment in the 'burbs with a dedicated office even before all of this.  So I haven't felt like it's been close quarters doing WFH for the past 4 months.  I haven't thought about moving because I already have an ideal situation to deal with all of this.  I do go to several nice parks almost every day though too just to get out the house.  I'm glad that I ended up not moving downtown or closer because I feel like I would have not liked it right now.