I don't see how premiums are going to go down when we get rid of the individual mandate. Wasn't the mandate in place to try to keep premiums down?
Yes, but it obviously didn't work. Because even with the mandate in place, millions of healthy, young people needed to subsidize the sick still weren't buying it. They were paying the penalty instead (or just not filing tax returns and not even paying the penalty).
The GOP approach is to reduce premiums is twofold:
First, the current bill allocates about $130 billion to states to set up "high risk pools" for folks with chronic health problems, which will help provide affordable coverage to them while allowing the states to allow insurance companies to once again price policies based upon age and health (you know -
like how all other insurance works). That one-size fits all pricing is known as "community rating" and it is going away. That will reduce premiums for the young and healthy, which means they may actually buy policies, which in turn further helps reduce premiums for everyone.
Second, the bill has not abolished "guaranteed issue" - meaning insurers cannot deny coverage based upon preexisting conditions - but I believe the current version allows states to trim back those protections in that you have to maintain continuous coverage. You can't just let your coverage lapse and wait to get sick. This will also help.
In reality, the current bill probably doesn't go far enough regarding either of the two issues, so I'm not at all confident this will meaningfully reduce premiums. Also, note that in both cases I said "allow the states." It will be left up to individual states to decide what they want to do. So I seriously doubt we're going to see any reduction at all in blue states.