Do we think OU and Texas will be in the Big 12 through June 2025?
nope, but they're going to pay
They are going to pay something, no way it’s the full amount.
You keep saying this and I understand why but you've yet to address why the Big 12 would just give their money away. There's no reason for them to settle, just not wanting to put up with them isn't reason enough to just give money away especially if you're never going to make that much money again. I do agree with you that OU, UT, ESPN and the SEC want this over like yesterday, but I'm going to assume the aggrieved party will not reward bad behavior and will insist they are made whole.
How does this play out? Two teams leave and say we aren’t paying a dime. Big 12 says we are going to withhold your payment? It’s like one big Mexican standoff with espn the big 12 and the two parting teams. ESPN could withhold distribution to the big 12 in the same fashion that the big 12 could withhold OU and UT distributions right? It’s going to go to court, it’s going to be ugly, and I think like most legal matters will get settled and be for less than whatever the contract stipulates. I think espn is likely on the hook to make the remaining 8 whole as if the two departing programs were still around though, if bowlsby’s claims are able to be proved legally.
A couple of points:
1. This is realignment 2.0 not 1.0. The new and improved version has contracts and bylaws that have been pre-scrubbed by teams of lawyers to make it much harder to jump early. Not saying it is not possible, just that the risk to the jumping school and new conference is much greater than in version 1.0
2. The new SEC contract doesn't start until 2023. There is no revenue reason to jump early. CBS is not going to bump up the last couple years of a contract they lost the renewal on and ESPN can't pay more until their contact starts.
3. Other then getting rid of the awkwardness at the conference xmas party what is the incentive for the Big 12 to let them go early. Remember, with the new and improved contracts the conference is negotiating from a relative position of strength this time (at leas in the short term legal perspective). It is also in survival mode which means until it has a clear path to safety it will dig its heals in for every dime.