Bubble Watch

[catsfan20012002]

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch?id=40&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab2pos2

Big 12 Conference

Work left to do:

Kansas State [14-6 (3-2), RPI: 55, SOS: 104] Who needs Bill Walker?? OK, that's a little extreme, but the Wildcats have won four straight and three W's last week push them into the mix in the Big 12. Really need to take out Nebraska and Mizzou at home in the next two, as the two after that are at Texas and at Kansas. The win over USC looks good. The 30-point loss to Cal doesn't. Weirdest split of the season? K-State lost by 24 at New Mexico and then beat the Lobos by 16 a month later in Vegas (with Walker).

So as of right now.....On a scale of 1-10 (with 1 being a long shot and 10 being a lock) what are the chances we get in? 

[ksu_FAN]

6

[michigancat]

So as of right now.....On a scale of 1-10 (with 1 being a long shot and 10 being a lock) what are the chances we get in? 

3

[catsfan20012002]

Seriously? I was thinking 7-8!!!!!

 

[ksu_FAN]

Optimism is okay, I'm being cautious though. 

Keep in mind Rusty is a "glass is half empty" kind of guy.

[cireksu]

50/50. 

We need to beat, either texas, osu, or ku.  And win every other game.

Can't have an off night, or a let down.

[sys]

do the numbers of your 1-10 scale correspond to the formula x * 10 = %?

if so, 3

if not, 4.5

[Skycat]

do the numbers of your 1-10 scale correspond to the formula x * 10 = %?

if so, 3

if not, 4.5

I think it's a logarithmic scale.

[catsfan20012002]

I know it's early but, as my hero Woody Paige says, look at the schedule guys. We're 3-2 in the Big XII right now and this is how I see it going the rest of the way:

Nebraska W
Missouri W
at Texas L*
at Kansas L*
Colorado W
at Nebraska W
Iowa St W
Kansas W
at Colorado W
at Oklahoma St L*
Oklahoma W

*worst case scenerio

So that puts us at 22-9 (11-5) going into the Big XII tournament. That will get us in, won't it?

[sys]

did your preseason worst case scenario include a 40 pt lost to cal?

[WildCatzPhreak]

I really wish I could say we beat OSU.  I do think we're a better team than they are.  But I don't think we have anyone that can stop Boggan.

I can see us forfeiting our man and going to zone in that game.  Hopefully it works.

[catsfan20012002]

did your preseason worst case scenario include a 40 pt lost to cal?

That was a long time ago

[Snakehead05]

Nebraska W
Missouri W
at Texas L
at Kansas L
Colorado W
at Nebraska W
Iowa St W
Kansas L
at Colorado W
at Oklahoma St L
Oklahoma W

I predict 21 wins, which is about a 50/50 shot at The Dance.

[catsfan20012002]

According to tonight's Manhattan Mercury.....

HCBH thinks that it will take at least 20 wins.

If you look at the schedule we have 8 games left vs. the Big XII North and other then ku we're the 2nd best Big XII North team if you look at the standings. That puts us at a minimum of 20 wins (if we don't beat ku at all and take care of everybody else).

Looking at our schedule.....Our most significant win is USC in Vegas. Our next most significant win is at Missouri (and that's not gonna cut it). Those ku and Oklahoma games are big because those are the best teams on our schedule according to the current rankings.

So if you're going with the HCBH theory we need to go 6-11 or 7-10 the rest of the way to have a shot. Certainly seems doable. 

[PowercatPosse]

I think our chances are a little better than 50/50 ......... so i would say 6.5

IF we keep doing what we have been, we should be able to get to 10-6 (thus probably winning 5 of 6 home games and 2 road games at NU and CU)

WE just can't afford to go out and lay an egg like we did on offense vs T Tech.  I think this team is playing hard enough, that if we don't just fizzle on the offensive end, we can get those 7 wins.

If we let one get away from us (at NU or home vs OU/MU) then we need to pull off an upset vs the hawks or UT.

10-6 = 55%
9-7 = 35%
11-5 = 10%

[catfan28]

Earlier this week, the Topeka-Capital posted a poll with the question....what are K-State's chances of making in to the NCAA tourney:
http://blogs.cjonline.com/index.php?entry=1829


So far....the poll results:

61%...... say we win 20 or more and get to the Dance
27%..... say we make a run at 20 wins-but NIT bound
9%...... say 20 wins but bubble bursts
3%....... say no postseason


So Posse's 6.5 is about right.

[catsfan20012002]

did your preseason worst case scenario include a 40 pt lost to cal?

Cal is within 10 of UCLA right now and lead them through most of the 1st Half.

[Dirty Sanchez]

I'd say ~6.5

Our remaining schedule lays out well enough to get 5th or 6th in the league, with an outside shot at 4.  In any of those cases we take on a cu/baylor/moo in the first round or a bi if we're lucky, likely getting us to the 2nd rd. An upset of texas/ku/osu would help a ton.  Just take care of business in those games we "should" win.

Getting to the 2nd rd, even if by a bi would surely guarantee us getting in.

Of course this is all contingent on us continuing to play the non-schizo ball that we've played for the last few games.

[catsfan20012002]

The thing about the NCAA Tournament committee is that they like to judge teams based on turning points of their seasons. We've got 3 teams for them to look at: The pre Bill Walker team, the Bill Walker team and the post Bill Walker team. I guess it depends on which team they want to put most emphasis on.

[catsfan20012002]

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch?id=40

Kansas State [15-6 (4-2), RPI: 52, SOS: 103] Who needs Bill Walker?? OK, that's a little extreme, but the Wildcats have won four straight and three W's last week push them into the mix in the Big 12. Really need to take out Nebraska and Mizzou at home in the next two, as the two after that are at Texas and at Kansas. The win over USC looks good. The 30-point loss to Cal doesn't. Weirdest split of the season? K-State lost by 24 at New Mexico and then beat the Lobos by 16 a month later in Vegas (with Walker).

[Ameroogie]

LOL....Damn catsfan01/02....you started this thread with the same post.

Come up with something original, eh?

[catsfan20012002]

I noticed that after I posted it. I wonder why they put the same "Bubble Watch" on two weeks in a row?

[Ameroogie]

LOL....Damn catsfan01/02....you started this thread with the same post.

Come up with something original, eh?

Or quote yourself!

[mavrick1821]

If you read Bubblewatch at ESPN, it states the next update is Jan. 31.

"Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Jan. 31)"

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch

[catsfan20012002]

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch?lpos=spotlight&lid=tab7pos1

UPDATED Bubble Watch

Kansas State [15-6 (4-2), RPI: 51, SOS: 102] Wildcats keep pushing forward, easily handling Nebraska in their only action of the week. With Mizzou, Colorado and Iowa State coming into Manhattan within the next six, just getting one of the upcoming roadies at Texas and Kansas could leave K-State in pretty strong position.