it is almost ridiculous how favorable ksu should have it next year in conference. almost every break they could get, they get. i think you could make a reasonable argument for 9-10 win big 12 season - without assuming the team will improve at all from this year.
1. of the 5 other north teams, only ku seems likely to improve or remain equal to their 05-06 level. all other teams have significant player losses (may change depending on draft returns). at least thus far (yes, still very early) none of these teams seem to have instant impact recruits lined up to make up for those losses.
2. south teams should fare better, but we get arguably the weakest 3 of the bunch at home - tech, baylor, and ou.
i think it is not unreasonable to expect to go 6-2, 7-1, 8-0 at home. and perhaps 2-3, 3-2 road in the north. if ksu can go 1-2 road in the south, that would be good.
a fairly reasonable probability curve:
6-10 - 5%
7- 9 - 10%
8-8 - 20%
9-7 - 30%
10-6 - 20%
11-5 - 10%
12-4 - 5%
85% chance .500 or better.