Bubble Watch 3-9

[catsfan20052006]

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch?id=73

Should be in:

Kansas State [18-10 (9-6), RPI: 46, SOS: 15] K-State slipped past Iowa State to get to 10-6 in the league and clinch third place. The unbalanced league schedule makes that finish a bit less definitive, but it's still a very nice chip for the Wildcats. K-State would do well to win its quarterfinal game against fellow bubbler Texas A&M. Having a win over Kansas never hurts, but a win over Cal is the best thing on a nonconference résumé that includes losses to George Mason, Notre Dame, Oregon and Xavier.

They got our record wrong but.....

[ksu_FAN]

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch?id=73

Should be in:

Kansas State [18-10 (9-6), RPI: 46, SOS: 15] K-State slipped past Iowa State to get to 10-6 in the league and clinch third place. The unbalanced league schedule makes that finish a bit less definitive, but it's still a very nice chip for the Wildcats. K-State would do well to win its quarterfinal game against fellow bubbler Texas A&M. Having a win over Kansas never hurts, but a win over Cal is the best thing on a nonconference résumé that includes losses to George Mason, Notre Dame, Oregon and Xavier.

They got our record wrong but.....

K-State fans, prepare for the above comment to brought out a lot the next week.  A lot.  And we've got to face the fact that we got to play the 4 worst teams in the league 8 times, so there is some reality to it.  Still, we should've done enough to be in, our biggest knock really is finishing the season poorly and road losses to NU and MU, but we've done enough especially in this year's wide bubble field.

[sys]

record of the 3 south bubble teams against the north - 10-8
record of the 3 south bubble teams against the south - 16-16

it's easy to make too much of the unbalance.  to the extent that it had an effect (sample size is kind of limited), it would appear to be an effect of less than one win per season.

[kcpowercat]

our #15 SOS should make our north schedule irrelevant.

[catdude33]

I think having Beasley is the main reason not to worry about whether we get in or not.  I just don't see them leaving the best player in the country out of the tournament.  People want to see him.

[doom]

I think having Beasley is the main reason not to worry about whether we get in or not.  I just don't see them leaving the best player in the country out of the tournament.  People want to see him.

But Psycho T will be in the tourney.

[mcmwcat]

A&M v KSU could in effect be a play-in game

[hemmy]

A&M v KSU could in effect be a play-in game

No

[Bullfn33]

The biggest thing to remember with the unbalanced schedule thing is when they used this argument last year they were talking about the 7th best conference in the country so there was much validity.  Now we are talking about the 2nd best conference in the country.  So the unbalanced schedule argument is much weaker this year considering Colorado, Iowa State, Missouri and Nebraska are way more competitive.  Yes, we might have gotten one extra win compared to South teams since we played Colorado one more time but that's the only real argument I could see.  But Colorado has been competitive in most of their games, including their games against the top teams in the league so they aren't complete push overs like a Northwestern or Oregon State in other leagues. 

The league is light years stronger so there is little argument for any schedules in it being "weak."  Remember Oklahoma is 2-4 vs North teams and Texas A&M is 3-3.  There is a little validity to our unbalanced schedule but if the experts do their homework they would realize it's minuscule.  At the very least, our 10-6 record is equivalent to a 9-7 South record and we have a win over Kansas which only Texas shares(of teams in consideration).

[catzacker]

Here are some stats that no one will pull out:  
 - OU is 2-4 vs. that weak north.  0-2 vs. the top 2 teams in the north
 - That really good A&M start to the season....A&M's non con had a SOS of 227 (3rd worst in the Big 12), 0-2 vs. the top 2 teams in the north

Before any games are played in conference, the league should just start all the North teams (sans ku) at 0-2.

[LimestoneOutcropping]

Cats are in.  Play in game was yesterday.

[Ben Ji]

Not even worried about it, Cats are getting in. 3rd place in the Big 12 says it all

[mcmwcat]

prolly right that ksu is already in.  if a bunch of other bubble teams get big wins in the conf trny or there are is an upset in the WCC today there might be a possiblity ksu gets pushed down.  but i really don't see it

ksu vs

rpi 1-25: 2-4
rpi 26-50: 1-1
rpi 51-75: 0-3
rpi 76-100: 3-1
rpi 101-125: 3-1

those numbers (presuming they are correct) are why i'm a little worried.  or maybe i'm just being pessimistic

[kougar24]

We would have been a lock at 9-7. Quit worrying for god's sake.

[Bullfn33]

During ESPN's Gamenight special earlier today, Lunardi came on and had us in as a lock along with ku, UT, OU and BU from the Big 12.  Texas A&M was just barely in and should stay in if they don't lose a game they shouldn't in the Big 12 tourney.

[WildGunman]

Can we just go ahead and f*ck A&M in the ass and remove any possibility of the NCAA creating yet another "K-State Rule" (actually they would probably just revise the rule created last year).

Even if we do win, however, God help us if ISU makes A&M play hard and then A&M gets to play the "Tired" trump-card.  I know that b*tch Turg would certainly be willing to pull it out.

[catdude33]

Ah yes, I'd forgotton about K-State getting penalized for having a first round bye last year. 

[ksu_FAN]

Some teams to keep in mind. 

2007 Florida State:  20-12, 7-9 ACC, 41 RPI, #1 RPI conf, 5-9 vs Top 50, 7-12 vs Top 100, #20 SOS, 4-6 last 10, 6-9 road/neutral.  NIT.
2006 Cincinnati: 18-12, 8-8 BE, 40 RPI, #2 RPI conf, 4-8 vs Top 50, 11-11 vs Top 100, #5 SOS, 5-5 last 10, 5-8 road/neutral.  NIT.
2004 LSU: 18-10, 8-8 SEC, 38 RPI, #2 RPI conf, 6-6 vs Top 50, 9-9 vs Top 100, #29 SOS, 4-6 last 10, 6-7 road/neutral.  NIT.
2000 Vanderbilt: 19-10, 8-8 SEC, #1 RPI conf, 4-6 vs Top 50, 7-9 vs Top 100, #47 SOS, 4-6 last 10, 5-7 road/neutral.  NIT.

I think we're in, but I'm not going to declare it a lock.  Its not uncommon for a team from a strong conference to have a resume very similar to ours from this year and be left out.  I think the 10 league wins will help us a bunch, but the committee will consider that we are in the weaker division of the Big 12.  Again, I still think we are in no matter what we do Friday, but also realize that you never know when you have a resume like ours.   

[PowercatPosse]

hey FAN,

the big difference is this ...

Florida St - tied for 8th in ACC in 2007
Cincy - 8th place in BEast in 2006
K-State 3rd place in Big 12 in 2008.   

That is why we are a lock and and a 7/8 seed right now

[ksu_FAN]

hey FAN,

the big difference is this ...

Florida St - tied for 8th in ACC in 2007
Cincy - 8th place in BEast in 2006
K-State 3rd place in Big 12 in 2008.   

That is why we are a lock and and a 7/8 seed right now

I won't deny that the 10 wins and 3rd place finish will help us.  But I also expect the discussion about Big 12 teams to include the fact that the worst 4 teams in the league are in the north and that difference from 3rd to 9th is only 3 games.  Again, I think we're safe, but I'm not going to make any Rusty predictions either way.

[kougar24]

but I'm not going to make any Rusty predictions either way.

Please don't. This board wouldn't survive the sudden sharp drop-off in BBIQ.