Date: 20/08/25 - 01:05 AM   48060 Topics and 694399 Posts

Author Topic: Bubble thoughts 3/1  (Read 302 times)

March 01, 2007, 01:36:12 PM
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PowercatPosse

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34 at large bids.  There are 25 teams that look good and pretty much in  for at large bids.  33 teams listed below (25 at large + 8 conf winners) .....

Big 12 --(3) ku, aTm, Texas
ACC (6)-- NC, VT, Virginia, Maryland, Duke, BC
Pac 10 (6) -- Ucla, Wash St, USC, Oregon, AZ, Stan
Big East (6) -- Gtown, Pitt, L'ville, Cuse, NDame, Marquette
SEC (4) -- Florida, Tenn, uk, Vandy
Big 10 (3) -- Ohio St, Wisc, Ind
Mt West (3) -- UNLV, BYU, AF
MO Vall (2) -- SIU, Crieghton


BUBBLE teams----- I have these 9 teams in right now

1. Mich St 21-9/8-7, RPI 23, 7 top 50 wins..........  Their resume looks good.  They play at Wisc so 8-8 is likely.  They just need to avoid a 1st round loss in Big 10 tourney and they should be in.

2. Villanova 19-9/8-7 RPI 19, 4 top 50 wins.......... IF they beat Syracuse they are in.  They would have to lose next 2 games to be hurting

3. T Tech 19-11/8-7, RPI 46, 4top 50RPI wins (plus 3 vs top 20)............ If they win at Isu they are in.  If they lose to Isu and go 1-1 in B12 tourney, i still think they sneak in.

4. Mo St 20-9/12-6, RPI 37, 3 top 50 wins ............  They need to avoid losing their 1st game in Mo Vall tourney.  They do that and they will likely get in

5. Illinois 21-9/9-6, RPI 32,4 top 50 wins .............  A win at Iowa and they would be in.  A loss and they would probably need a win in B10 tourney to be feeling good.

6. K-State 20-10/9-6 RPI 60, 2 top 50 wins.......... Need to beat OU and Tech in B12 and they are in.  A loss to Tech and they will be sweating it out

7. W Virginia 19-8/8-7 RPI 55, 2 top 50 wins........  need to beat Cincy and win 1st round BEast game otherwise they won't be in

8. 2nd team from the Colonial.  3 teams are in the running. 1 will likely win the conf and other 2 will battle for an at large
      * Old Dominion 23-7/15-3 RPI 36, 3 wins over top 50
      * VCU 24-6/16-2 RPI 59
      * Drexel 21-7/12-5 RPI 44, wins at Nova and at Cuse

9. Purdue 19-10/8-7 RPI 43, 5 top 50 wins, only 2 road wins........ they need to beat N'western and win a game in B10 tourney to feel good


------- LAST 4 out-----------

1. Georgia Tech 18-10/6-8 RPI 52, 6 top 50 wins ......... they have 2 huge home games (UNC, BC).  They win both they look good.  They split and they will need to do some work in ACC tourney

2. Georgia 16-11/8-7, RPI 54, 2 top 50 wins, only 3 road wins.  They must beat Tenn and win 1 SEC game or they don't have a chance

3. 3rd Colonial team.  I think Colonial is only getting 2 (like last year).  A 3rd team will be left out like Hofstra was last year

4. Michigan 20-10/8-7, RPI 50, 4 top 50 wins, only 3 wins away from home.......... Must beat Ohio St and then they probably still need to win a B10 tourney game.


Next 4 out ----
1. OK ST 19-9/6-8 ........... need to win next 3 games to have a chance
2. FSU 18-11/ 6-9............ must win next 2 games just to have a chance
3. Umass 22-7/12-3..........Must win next 3 games to reach conf finals to have a shot
4. Bama 20-9/7-8......... must win next 2 games and maybe 3 to have a shot








March 01, 2007, 01:40:41 PM
Reply #1

ksu_FAN

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March 01, 2007, 03:09:42 PM
Reply #2

PowercatPosse

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couple of thoughts about those smaller conf teams trying to sneak in ----

1. Colonial league's 3 teams.  VCU has the weakest resume (only 4 win vs top 100, RPI 59) but they did go 16-2 in league.  Drexel finished 4th which will hurt them despite having a high non con RPI in the top 10 and wins over 2 Big East schools.  ODU has the best resume and would stand a good chance at an at large. 

VCU and Drexel will likely meet in the Colonial semis.  The loser is hurting, the winner still stands a chance of getting that conf's 2nd bid


2.  Winthrop has a good 22-4 record.  They should win their conference.  Their RPI (67) and wins over top 100 (3) are not real strong, but they did beat 2 good mid major teams on the road --- Old Dominion and Mo St.  248th SOS may force them to win their conf to get in


3.  Applachian St/Davidson of the Southern Conf. ---- Davidson has no shot at an at-large.  They are 24-4 but have only 1 win over Top 100.  App St is probably a longshot for an at-large despite wins over Vandy and Virginia because the conf is too weak


4. Gonzaga.  The Zags need to win the WCC tourney.  They too are a longshot for an at-large because of the 10 losses and the WCC is not strong enough