Cats chances in the North - using math

[Phenom Smith]

Hey Cats,

I spent a good chunk of time here last year.  Now I'm back, as I want to share a cool gadget we've created and I've just confirmed my trip to Manhattan for the Mizzou game.  I always enjoy the trip - even sort of the 66-0 game....  The beer was cold anyway.

Check out the Predict-a-North at Atomic Teeth:

http://atomicteeth.barkingcarnival.com/2009/11/02/predict-a-north-4-games-to-go/

You can tinker with the lines to adjust probabilities.  All tie-breakers are built in.  At this time, aside from NU, KSU has the best chance to win the North. 

Good luck this weekend.

[Pete]

You should post here more. 

[Cem Blasoflas]

Have we been favored in any of our conference games?

[steve dave]

Have we been favored in any of our conference games?

yes

[kcchiefdav]

God, I love spreadsheets when they have nothing to do with school or work.

[Phenom Smith]

You should post here more. 

Thanks. 

I didn't think there was any way I'd make Manhattan this year, but everything just fell into place.  I can't wait.  Had such a good time in '07.

[catsfan20052006]

So what does that chart mean? Those are the odds that the favorite will win? If that's the case than KSU has basically no shot to win the North!

[mikeycat]

I don't see MU being favored if we beat ku

[Ginger]

They will beat Baylor by 30 and that's a pretty big if.

[prome05]

Ah, man. When I first read this thread's subject, I thought it said "using maps." I thought that woulda been kinda cool. Is there any chance you could whip up a maps version?

[Phenom Smith]

So what does that chart mean? Those are the odds that the favorite will win? If that's the case than KSU has basically no shot to win the North!

As of now, you have the second best shot. 

As for whether Mizzou will be favored if KSU beats ku, that's probably right.  You can change the odds as you see fit, and you can change the odds to -27 if you don't like probabilities and just want a 'what happens if KSU win X game, NU wins X game..." scenario.

I believe the chart's running pretty slowly.  It's freaking huge and we've had a ton of a.m. hits.  Sorry.  There are 16,384 permutations at this stage.  Next week there will be just 512.  That'll make it easier to work with.

[novembereleven]

Very cool Phenom...but as a self-admitted mathematical retard, I just don't get some of the logic in your explanation of the ku vs. KSU match-up.  Don't get me wrong, the more rooting against ku the better.  But it just doesn't seem logical (to me) in what appears to be a race to 5 wins, that one team getting their 4th win (with two winnable games left - ie. less than a TD spread) is better than another getting their 2nd win with a trip to Austin, Texas (sure loss) and only 1 home game left on the slate.

When I look at baseball/football/hoops standings, I'm just as concerned what the frontrunner did as my team.  A KSU win (quite possible) and Nubb loss to OU (likely) would put 1 1/2 games between them and us with just 2 to go for KSU.  Little margin for error for Nubbs and Mizzou, when KSU has to get just 1 win in those 2 and seemingly let things shake out the rest of the way, based on the parity and level of play in the North this year.

Trying to leave the emotion out of this (channeling Mr. Spock and stuff), so things like trends, momentum and the fact NU can't score are not in the equation.

[PowercatPat]

If we win this weekend, there is no way MU should be favored. They have not impressed me at all this year.

[kougar24]

Welcome to the board, SharpHawk.

[Phenom Smith]

If we win this weekend, there is no way MU should be favored. They have not impressed me at all this year.

If KSU beats ku, there's a good chance the Cats will be favored to beat MU.  I agree with that.

The Tigers have been impressive to some degree - 4-0 in games favored, 1-3 in games underdogged.  It's not like the national perception was that the Tigers were going to have another 10 win season.  Still a good team, though.