KSUFans Archives

Sports => Snyder's Electronic Cyber Space World => Topic started by: Phenom Smith on November 03, 2009, 09:27:59 AM

Title: Cats chances in the North - using math
Post by: Phenom Smith on November 03, 2009, 09:27:59 AM
Hey Cats,

I spent a good chunk of time here last year.  Now I'm back, as I want to share a cool gadget we've created and I've just confirmed my trip to Manhattan for the Mizzou game.  I always enjoy the trip - even sort of the 66-0 game....  The beer was cold anyway.

Check out the Predict-a-North at Atomic Teeth:

http://atomicteeth.barkingcarnival.com/2009/11/02/predict-a-north-4-games-to-go/ (http://atomicteeth.barkingcarnival.com/2009/11/02/predict-a-north-4-games-to-go/)

You can tinker with the lines to adjust probabilities.  All tie-breakers are built in.  At this time, aside from NU, KSU has the best chance to win the North. 

Good luck this weekend.
Title: Re: Cats chances in the North - using math
Post by: Pete on November 03, 2009, 09:30:32 AM
You should post here more.  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Cats chances in the North - using math
Post by: Cem Blasoflas on November 03, 2009, 09:32:25 AM
Have we been favored in any of our conference games?
Title: Re: Cats chances in the North - using math
Post by: steve dave on November 03, 2009, 09:34:18 AM
Have we been favored in any of our conference games?

yes
Title: Re: Cats chances in the North - using math
Post by: kcchiefdav on November 03, 2009, 09:35:52 AM
God, I love spreadsheets when they have nothing to do with school or work.
Title: Re: Cats chances in the North - using math
Post by: Phenom Smith on November 03, 2009, 10:03:11 AM
You should post here more.  :thumbsup:

Thanks. 

I didn't think there was any way I'd make Manhattan this year, but everything just fell into place.  I can't wait.  Had such a good time in '07.
Title: Re: Cats chances in the North - using math
Post by: catsfan20052006 on November 03, 2009, 10:24:26 AM
So what does that chart mean? Those are the odds that the favorite will win? If that's the case than KSU has basically no shot to win the North!

:nono:
Title: Re: Cats chances in the North - using math
Post by: mikeycat on November 03, 2009, 10:28:34 AM
I don't see MU being favored if we beat ku
Title: Re: Cats chances in the North - using math
Post by: Ginger on November 03, 2009, 10:30:29 AM
They will beat Baylor by 30 and that's a pretty big if.
Title: Re: Cats chances in the North - using math
Post by: prome05 on November 03, 2009, 10:33:04 AM
Ah, man. When I first read this thread's subject, I thought it said "using maps." I thought that woulda been kinda cool. Is there any chance you could whip up a maps version? :dunno:
Title: Re: Cats chances in the North - using math
Post by: Phenom Smith on November 03, 2009, 10:45:46 AM
So what does that chart mean? Those are the odds that the favorite will win? If that's the case than KSU has basically no shot to win the North!

:nono:

As of now, you have the second best shot. 

As for whether Mizzou will be favored if KSU beats ku, that's probably right.  You can change the odds as you see fit, and you can change the odds to -27 if you don't like probabilities and just want a 'what happens if KSU win X game, NU wins X game..." scenario.

I believe the chart's running pretty slowly.  It's freaking huge and we've had a ton of a.m. hits.  Sorry.  There are 16,384 permutations at this stage.  Next week there will be just 512.  That'll make it easier to work with.
Title: Re: Cats chances in the North - using math
Post by: novembereleven on November 03, 2009, 03:01:06 PM
Very cool Phenom...but as a self-admitted mathematical retard, I just don't get some of the logic in your explanation of the ku vs. KSU match-up.  Don't get me wrong, the more rooting against ku the better.  But it just doesn't seem logical (to me) in what appears to be a race to 5 wins, that one team getting their 4th win (with two winnable games left - ie. less than a TD spread) is better than another getting their 2nd win with a trip to Austin, Texas (sure loss) and only 1 home game left on the slate.

When I look at baseball/football/hoops standings, I'm just as concerned what the frontrunner did as my team.  A KSU win (quite possible) and Nubb loss to OU (likely) would put 1 1/2 games between them and us with just 2 to go for KSU.  Little margin for error for Nubbs and Mizzou, when KSU has to get just 1 win in those 2 and seemingly let things shake out the rest of the way, based on the parity and level of play in the North this year.

Trying to leave the emotion out of this (channeling Mr. Spock and stuff), so things like trends, momentum and the fact NU can't score are not in the equation.
Title: Re: Cats chances in the North - using math
Post by: PowercatPat on November 03, 2009, 03:21:19 PM
If we win this weekend, there is no way MU should be favored. They have not impressed me at all this year.
Title: Re: Cats chances in the North - using math
Post by: kougar24 on November 03, 2009, 03:26:59 PM
Welcome to the board, SharpHawk.
Title: Re: Cats chances in the North - using math
Post by: Phenom Smith on November 04, 2009, 12:14:33 PM
If we win this weekend, there is no way MU should be favored. They have not impressed me at all this year.

If KSU beats ku, there's a good chance the Cats will be favored to beat MU.  I agree with that.

The Tigers have been impressive to some degree - 4-0 in games favored, 1-3 in games underdogged.  It's not like the national perception was that the Tigers were going to have another 10 win season.  Still a good team, though.