Reality will also have KSU in first place next week
...whether OU drills the Cats or not. Assuming KSU loses they'll be tied with ISU if the Clones can go to College Station and win or alone if ISU loses. But as Die-Hard so astutely points out, it's the two home games vs. ku and Mizzou which loom as the most important games and based on early Big 12 results, the low hanging fruit.
I'll be the first to admit KSU is FAR from a world beater, particularly on offense. But at this point ku, Mizzou and Nubb are far from world beaters themselves.
With all due respect H8er the reality doesn't look too good elsewhere in seach of the magic 5 wins (which would almost certainly win the North):
-Pinkel has only 1 five game conference winning streak in 9 years at Mizzou. Obviously that was in 2007 (6 games). But even with far superior teams to this year's model he's only managed one 4 game win streak (2008) and one 3 game win streak (2005).
-ku has a total of 7 Big 12 road wins in Mangino's entire 7 years as the head coach. With games at Texas, Texas Tech and KSU...getting one won't be easy and two nearly impossible. Defending home and Arrowhead alone only gets them to 3 wins and to do that they've got to solve NU's defense and beat their main rival.
-Nubb's defense is probably the best in the North and their offense anemic with a beat up backfield and QB who's the newest whipping post in Lincoln. But with 2 recent home losses, they're going to have to win it on the road (at Baylor, ku and CU)...and have OU and KSU coming to Lincoln. Can you find 4 wins in there? Sweep the road games and beat KSU? Seems rather unlikely to me.
-ISU needs 3 more wins to reach 5 and I don't see more than 1 or 2 tops in @ aTm, OSU, CU and @ Mizzou. They're backfield is even more beat up than Nubb's.
-CU needs 4 of the last 5 and with a trip to Stillwater looming that means rattling off wins at home vs. Mizzou, aTM and Nubb and going to Ames and winning. They're not consistent enough to manage any of that.
-KSU it would appear will come down to those two games in Manhattan vs. ku and Mizzou, currently a combined 1-5 in the Big 12. Add in Nubb at the end and it’s a combined 2-7. Still a tall task for KSU, but compared to the others as realistic (if not more) than any other scenario. The consistent chatter of "bad match-up" should be quelled some by the fact those ku and Mizzou games are at Manhattan, against an improving defense, with teams not named Texas Tech and vs. the best coach in the North who has an 8-1 career record vs. Pinkel and Mangino.
Awww shux Pete....
I gave the Mizzou fans a bit more to think about this evening as well when one of their posters said the next four games were against crap teams (toned down for the youngsters). My fave is the first point in bold. KSU is half way through their schedule and this just looks/sounds/is hilarious:
-That crappy KSU team has 3 more conference wins than Mizzou...and actually one more win than "front runners" ku, Mizzou and Nebraska combined! Oh and you play in Manhattan vs. a coach Pinkel has never beaten.
-Pinkel is 11-24 (32%) in Big 12 road games with just two (Tech 06 & ISU 04) coming against teams with winning records. By the way, neither of those teams was over .500 in conference the years you beat them at their place.
-Pinkel is 0-5 vs. Snyder...two of those losses vs. last place KSU teams.
-Mangino has won 4 of the last 6 vs. Mizzou
-The crappy CU team has 1 more conference win than Mizzou...and the game is in Boulder.
-That crappy ISU team you play prior to ku has 2 more wins that Mizzou and just beat NU in Lincoln...who beat Mizzou in Columbia.
-Mizzou is 0-5 in conference play since beating ISU last year.
-Mizzou's QB is gimpy, the running game has issues and the coaches are suspect.
those are great stats, but i'm seriously worried because i'm pretty sure grant gregory sucks.
Totally agree Painted Purple. That's why I tried to go a bit beyond the scenario things for the idiots (Mizzou, ku and Nubb) who somehow still are delusional enough to think they're elite.
It's easy to say "we should win out," but a lot harder to do it. The numbers bear that out and the home field factor, while considered, is often considered much less than it should be.
Unless the winner ends up with 4 wins (decided by tie-breakers) my theory is the Hawks are done. A coach who has only won 7 road games in 7 years...with 3 of those vs. average/below average teams in '07 (KSU, OSU, aTm), simply is not going to fare well on the road vs. Texas, Texas Tech and KSU. Particularly with zero defense.
Same for Mizzou, though their path looks easier. They've barely had a pulse thus far squeaking by a 3-5 Mac team. So now they're supposed to go on the road and beat CU and KSU...and ku at Arrowhead? Well their best teams in 3 decades managed to win 5 in a row, ONCE! Got to factor in Pinkel sucks on the road, can easily be outcoached and factors like bad/homer calls (ISU a few years back that cost them a gimme win in Ames), Sr. day/Coach retirements (KSU 2005) and rivalries (ku last year). All average to bad teams, all Mizzou losses to inferior talent and this year they suck. It's just not easy, no matter how much their fans want to think it is.
But yeah, Coach Snyder and staff have done a great job of putting this team in a place to win the North. It's surprising and inspiring...but maybe it shouldn't be with his history. He takes less and gets more out of them. Oh and speaking of history, he owns Mangino and Pinkel. Particularly at home and even with inferior talent. Should be fun and should only get better in years to come.
LOL at cRusty being all :mad:
Hey cRusty . . . K-State wasn't considered one of the favorites to win the North.
How hard is this??
LOL at cRusty being all :mad:
Hey cRusty . . . K-State wasn't considered one of the favorites to win the North.
How hard is this??
I'm not ready to get a powercat back tattoo, but I fully admit that they have met my expectations for the year already. If they win another game I'll be more than content. If they win the North I may need a tattoo.
All things considered, I am definitely more optimistic than I was a month ago.
LOL at cRusty being all :mad:
Hey cRusty . . . K-State wasn't considered one of the favorites to win the North.
How hard is this??
I'm not ready to get a powercat back tattoo, but I fully admit that they have met my expectations for the year already. If they win another game I'll be more than content. If they win the North I may need a tattoo.
All things considered, I am definitely more optimistic than I was a month ago.
The only game I see K-State really having a chance to win going forward is the mu game if they keep heading to the tank. Plus, if K-State finishes 5-7 . . . that's what I predicted.
I pretty much agree. Do you honestly consider 5-7 or even 6-6 to really be "inspiring", though? I'm just keeping the kneepads in the closet and saving my virtual BJ for Snyder for when he actually accomplishes something.
How hard is this to understand?
I'm not ready to get a powercat back tattoo, but I fully admit that they have met my expectations for the year already. If they win another game I'll be more than content. If they win the North I may need a tattoo.
All things considered, I am definitely more optimistic than I was a month ago.
If we lose to ku AND Mu at home AND Nubb, I will seriously question where the program is headed.
No excuse to go O'fer those games.
LOL at cRusty being all :mad:
Hey cRusty . . . K-State wasn't considered one of the favorites to win the North.
How hard is this??
I'm not ready to get a powercat back tattoo, but I fully admit that they have met my expectations for the year already. If they win another game I'll be more than content. If they win the North I may need a tattoo.
All things considered, I am definitely more optimistic than I was a month ago.
The only game I see K-State really having a chance to win going forward is the mu game if they keep heading to the tank. Plus, if K-State finishes 5-7 . . . that's what I predicted.
I pretty much agree. Do you honestly consider 5-7 or even 6-6 to really be "inspiring", though? I'm just keeping the kneepads in the closet and saving my virtual BJ for Snyder for when he actually accomplishes something.
How hard is this to understand?
If we lose to ku AND Mu at home AND Nubb, I will seriously question where the program is headed.
No excuse to go O'fer those games.
I'm just waiting for the regression towards the mean, though we're half way through the conference so it's going to have to happen quickly if it ever does . Like fats said, grant sucks (which is microcosm of the team as a whole sucking). We're really not that good of a football team and even in that assertion I'm taking into consideration the rest of the not so good football teams in the North. The "inspired" stuff is great and all, but it's not about and never was about this season. Who gives a crap about going to a bowl game this year if Coffman is our QB next year (I'm not considering Harper at QB)? The only question about Bill Snyder is whether he has the assistants and the framework to recruit, not whether he could get Houlik into the right "fit".
I don't think this season is really as much about Snyder as it is about everyone else in the division. Snyder is what we thought/knew he was. What I'm seeing this year is that the rest of the programs are not that good and are not where the fans/media thought they were. IF Snyder can find a way to recruit he can do some serious damage against these clowns. We're a decent QB away from having this division wrapped up already. The question is will we have a decent QB next year or will we be running out there with the same kind of crap we have now?