Snyder's version of "Moneyball"?

[The Manhatter]

The term was raised by a poster on the GPC board when discussing it.

I can't ignore the fact that Snyder signed 8 kids who are very young in age for their respective classes.  That includes two of the greyshirts from last year.  While I would doubt it is as deliberate as it appears as detailed of a guy Snyder has always been it wouldn't be something that he was unaware of when assessing a prospect.  Whether it tipped the scales somewhat in the decision to offer a kid seems questionable to say the least but it's worth consideration.  For kids in that 16-19 age range a time window a period of 6 months to a year can be HUGE in their development both physically and mentally.

Both Morgan Burns (May 19, '93)  and Dante Barnett (June 14, '93), greyshirts from the '11 class, will not turn 19 until after spring ball this season.

Two wide receiver signees, Vernon Vaughn (August 26, '94) and DeAnte Burton (July 12, '94), are both extremely young for their class. 

Bender (April 1, '94)
Epps (May 18, '94)
Leverett (April 24, '94)
Starks (June 6, '94)

something to ponder.

[michigancat]

That's a pretty cool thought. You've read the Outliers, right?

[SdK]

That's a pretty cool thought. You've read the Outliers, right?

No. Copy and Paste please.

[wabash909]

Sometimes I wish Snyder would just recruit really good players.

It is fun to read some of these far reaching theories that people will come up with to rationalize why we don't, though.  It is entertaining.  Not like being entertained because our coach flew a helicopter to a recruiting visit.  But fun and entertaining, in our own little way.

 

[The Manhatter]

honestly, given snyder's penchant for detail, I think you have to be blatantly ignorant to suggest this as mere coincidence.

I look at Burton on film...that is a legit D-1 prospect but he didn't look that way as a soph or junior.  Snyder had to have taken his age into consideration.  It's quite apparent to me that if Burton is a member of the '13 class he's got some bigs coming in on him because schools like Baylor were finding out about him and picking up interest...but by then it was far too late.  His recruitment started a few years ago and KSU was on him the entire way...of course, two years ago, he was 6' 170lbs and nowhere near as fast as he is today.  This coupled with that study done by ESPN which stated that Texas prospects, while graded higher during recruiting, are not more likely to develop into stars than kids from any other state.  The suggestion was that kids from Texas have more polish coming out of the prep ranks and closer to their potential than kids from many other states.  As detailed of a cat as Snyder is I bet you he didn't need such a study to make an educated guess of that being the case.

[michigancat]

That's a pretty cool thought. You've read the Outliers, right?

No. Copy and Paste please.

Most Canadian NHL players are born early in the year because of how their Youth Hockey system works

Hatter's thought made me think of that. Unlike hockey, the real transformation for MOST football players occurs once they're in a college weightroom and development, so there is more potential for improving an undervalued player.

[SdK]

Hatter's thought made me think of that. Unlike hockey, the real transformation for MOST football players occurs once they're in a college weightroom and development, so there is more potential for improving an undervalued player.

That sounds really interesting. Is the whole book sports related or just outliers in general?

[The Manhatter]

Sometimes I wish Snyder would just recruit really good players.

It is fun to read some of these far reaching theories that people will come up with to rationalize why we don't, though.  It is entertaining.  Not like being entertained because our coach flew a helicopter to a recruiting visit.  But fun and entertaining, in our own little way.

Hey man, we'd all love to see KSU sign a bunch of 4 and 5 star kids.  That isn't going to happen under Snyder and never has but I'm quite certain the performance or end result on the field is FAR MORE IMPORTANT to you or I than how our team rankings look on February 1st.  We went 10-2 for a reason this past year and not all of it is "scheme doctor" crap.  He does have some players.  

I look at Vernon Vaughn's video, for example.  The kid makes a TON of great catches demonstrating body control, hands, and advanced skills in the passing game you can't teach.  But he was injured this year and that video comes from the '10 season after he had just turned 16.  That is very young.  He doesn't look THAT fast or sudden and I'm quite certain Snyder was aware of that so why did he offer the kid so early?  Probably because he knows the kid could advance quite a bit physically in the next few years.  I know that ESPN scout is far more concerned about skill in the way they rate kids...Vaughn got high marks with them based on his skills that can't be taught.

If you want to complain and bitch about recruiting just for the sake of doing so then that's fine.  The man will produce results that can be measured when it counts and you won't be bitching in Sept-Nov but then you can turn to Feb and forget what happened just a few months ago.  I'm sure Snyder looks for every edge he can get and in so doing you have to consider what he may or may not be contemplating when he does offer a kid.

[Dr Rick Daris]

That's a pretty cool thought. You've read the Outliers, right?

No. Copy and Paste please.

Most Canadian NHL players are born early in the year because of how their Youth Hockey system works

Hatter's thought made me think of that. Unlike hockey, the real transformation for MOST football players occurs once they're in a college weightroom and development, so there is more potential for improving an undervalued player.

yeah, the hockey numbers are just insane. stuff like that is super interesting to me. freakonomics has similar things but superfreakonomics or whatever was pretty much a steaming pile of self loving garbage.

[kostakio]

Obviosuly Sndyer has a method of some type and obviously it works pretty well at finding under appreciated talent.  Still it would be nice to win some recruiting battles now and then.  I'm sure there are kids with BCS offers that were born in July too.  

[michigancat]

Hatter's thought made me think of that. Unlike hockey, the real transformation for MOST football players occurs once they're in a college weightroom and development, so there is more potential for improving an undervalued player.

That sounds really interesting. Is the whole book sports related or just outliers in general?

very general

[The Manhatter]

Obviosuly Sndyer has a method of some type and obviously it works pretty well at finding under appreciated talent.  Still it would be nice to win some recruiting battles now and then.  I'm sure there are kids with BCS offers that were born in July too.  

sure there are kids who signed elsewhere that are young.  I'm more concerned about our signing class then the others.  I think it's interesting to note that of the 20 high school signees in this class, 40% are pretty young for their respective classes.  I am quite certain the number of high school seniors among the both the general high school population AND the number D-1 football prospects who turn 18 after April of their senior year is nowhere near 40%.

In addition to that I'm also fairly certain most college football coaches can look at a 16-18 year old and distinguish which kids are closer to their athletic or physical ceilings. 

[sonofdaxjones]

That's some interesting analysis.

[OK_Cat]

i love that 'hatter walks a very thin line between gopowertard and goemawtard.

[The Manhatter]

by no means would i use this 1 example I'm about to mention as constituing anything conclusive in the way of a sample size rather just one example.

Jordy Nelson was a 2003 HS grad...born May 31, 1985.  Obviously he was in a remote area from recruiting and was an option QB in high school.  He was a good athlete all through high school but he really blossomed physically between his junior and senior years.  I saw him run in the final of the boys 100 meter at State as both a junior and senior and the physical difference was noticeable.  He ran an 11.2 as a junior and then as a senior he ran a 10.6 breaking his division's state meet record (also did it in the 200) that still stands today.  It was obvious that the year's difference between 16 & 17 for Jordy was SIGNIFICANT in terms of speed.  Now that doesn't happen to every kid but it certainly does happen.  Now had he been 6-8 months older maybe he runs a 10.8 as a junior and more eyes are opened going into his senior season but that wasn't the case.  He was also long jumping 23' as a senior opposed to 21' as a junior.  

I know many on this board roll their eyes at track numbers...but coaches do pay attention to them or it can certainly cause them to look into a kid.

[Fuktard]

Sometimes I wish Snyder would just recruit really good players.

It is fun to read some of these far reaching theories that people will come up with to rationalize why we don't, though.  It is entertaining.  Not like being entertained because our coach flew a helicopter to a recruiting visit.  But fun and entertaining, in our own little way.

Hey man, we'd all love to see KSU sign a bunch of 4 and 5 star kids.  That isn't going to happen under Snyder and never has but I'm quite certain the performance or end result on the field is FAR MORE IMPORTANT to you or I than how our team rankings look on February 1st.  We went 10-2 for a reason this past year and not all of it is "scheme doctor" crap.  He does have some players.  

I look at Vernon Vaughn's video, for example.  The kid makes a TON of great catches demonstrating body control, hands, and advanced skills in the passing game you can't teach.  But he was injured this year and that video comes from the '10 season after he had just turned 16.  That is very young.  He doesn't look THAT fast or sudden and I'm quite certain Snyder was aware of that so why did he offer the kid so early?  Probably because he knows the kid could advance quite a bit physically in the next few years.  I know that ESPN scout is far more concerned about skill in the way they rate kids...Vaughn got high marks with them based on his skills that can't be taught.

If you want to complain and bitch about recruiting just for the sake of doing so then that's fine.  The man will produce results that can be measured when it counts and you won't be bitching in Sept-Nov but then you can turn to Feb and forget what happened just a few months ago.  I'm sure Snyder looks for every edge he can get and in so doing you have to consider what he may or may not be contemplating when he does offer a kid.

LOL...No.  Wrong board Hatter.

[The Manhatter]

i love that 'hatter walks a very thin line between gopowertard and goemawtard.

I don't mind walking that line and I don't mind being a tard.  Truth of it is I'm very unimpressed with some of the kids in this class but there are enough that I do like to give me reason not to go off the edge.

The one thing I do know for certain....Snyder only needs a few difference makers on either side of the ball mixed in with a lot of other 3rd, 4th, and 5th year blue collar guys to produce double digit 10 win seasons.  That has been proven time and time again.  I see enough "potential" difference makers in the past two classes to trust in Snyder and he's also stocking the necessary positions to have many of those 3rd, 4th, and 5th year kids that will be on the field.  

[LickNeckey]

to Hatter's point staff is pumped about J. Jones being a 10.4 kid     

[The Manhatter]

to Hatter's point staff is pumped about J. Jones being a 10.4 kid     

He's one I'm not completely sold on.  Great character kid, sure.  But he's an average athlete and I don't buy that 10.4 (i know what a 10.4 looks like).  I think he's a 10.8-10.9 which isn't bad at all but he isn't a 10.4 kid.   He can be a solid player for us but Vaughn, West, and Burton are better prospects at wide receiver..in terms of Vaughn and West who are not as fast as Judah they are just simply more skilled.

[Ira Hayes]

You may have a point, but I don't think age is very significant.  In Snyder's early years when everyone we played was geared up to try to stop the NU & OU rushing attacks we had Paul Watson, Carl Straw, and Chad May chucking it all over the field.  Now that everyone has switched to trying to defend the spread/pass happy style of OSU, OU, MU, TT we have a power running game.  

Snyder is a contrarian ala Bill Belichik.  If everybody else is recruiting based on NFL combine style measurables, Snyder is going to do something different.  It sounded yesterday like he is actually looking at real football stats.  Think about guys like Hubert.  Or look at Donnie Starks who had 189 solo tackles this fall but doesn't have any of the measurables.  That's a ridiculous number of tackles.  As Snyder himself said yesterday about Marquez Clark: "“Certainly, the numbers tell you something.  You can’t get that kind of yardage without having some skill."  

I'm sure Snyder is looking beyond the numbers, but the numbers are a good starting point - especially when nobody else is looking at them.

[420seriouscat69]

I'm so sick of "the examples" like Jordy Nelson and Aqib Talib, those are the rough ridin' exceptions. We suck at football and we definitely suck at recruiting. Eff moneyball analogies, they're Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!). We're not working with a salary cap. :DroppedMic: :UntuckingMyFuckingShirt:  

[Ira Hayes]

I'm so sick of "the examples" like Jordy Nelson and Aqib Talib, those are the rough ridin' exceptions. We suck at football and we definitely suck at recruiting. Eff moneyball analogies, they're Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!). We're not working with a salary cup. :DroppedMic: :UntuckingMyFuckingShirt:  

But we don't suck at football.

[michigancat]

Everyone knows I've been one of the biggest assholes about Snyder, and I think Hatter might be onto something, and I think it's fascinating.

[The Manhatter]

You may have a point, but I don't think age is very significant.  In Snyder's early years when everyone we played was geared up to try to stop the NU & OU rushing attacks we had Paul Watson, Carl Straw, and Chad May chucking it all over the field.  Now that everyone has switched to trying to defend the spread/pass happy style of OSU, OU, MU, TT we have a power running game.  

Snyder is a contrarian ala Bill Belichik.  If everybody else is recruiting based on NFL combine style measurables, Snyder is going to do something different.  It sounded yesterday like he is actually looking at real football stats.  Think about guys like Hubert.  Or look at Donnie Starks who had 189 solo tackles this fall but doesn't have any of the measurables.  That's a ridiculous number of tackles.  As Snyder himself said yesterday about Marquez Clark: "“Certainly, the numbers tell you something.  You can’t get that kind of yardage without having some skill."  

I'm sure Snyder is looking beyond the numbers, but the numbers are a good starting point - especially when nobody else is looking at them.

First, I think I clearly stated in the OP that "age" was NOT significant but given Snyder's detail it certainly has to be considered as being part of his evaluation.  Again, 40% of his high school signees this year were born after April 1st...that is nowhere close to the population of high school seniors and/or D-1 prospects.

Second, the reason Snyder threw it around the yard initially is because he didn't have the horses to run the ball with Nebraska, Colorado, and OU.  The short passing game he used could be equated to the 3 pt shot or "keep away" offenses employed by mid-majors in the NCAA tourney.  It isn't that he didn't want to run then...he just couldn't run it well enough.  Once he started playing those teams and saw their usage of the QB in terms of running the ball and controlling games he wanted that and has never steered away from it.  He's not doing it now to be a contrarian...he does it because he feels it is the key to winning at KSU.  He wants balance offensively...he doesn't always get it, especially with underclassmen starting at QB, but he wants it.  I have researched it and with QBs that have started with him as both juniors and seniors Snyder's QBs will attempt 8 more passes per game as seniors than they did as juniors...so he does strive to throw it more than it appears.

[The Manhatter]

I'm so sick of "the examples" like Jordy Nelson and Aqib Talib, those are the rough ridin' exceptions. We suck at football and we definitely suck at recruiting. Eff moneyball analogies, they're Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!). We're not working with a salary cup. :DroppedMic: :UntuckingMyFuckingShirt:  

we suck at "football recruiting", not at "football".  It's your ignorance of this very detail that illustrates your ignorance for considering the discussion in this post.

I now suggest you open the nearest window and yell at the top of your lungs.  Come back when you feel better.