If he misses the tournament, he should be fired on the spot, and if he doesn't at least get to the second round, he should be on thin ice.
Yes and then no. He should definitely be fired on the spot if he whiffs on the tournament and / or finishes below 5th in the Big XII. But he should also be fired if he doesn't make the Sweet Sixteen. That seems to be the established baseline expectation for the returning team so unless Weber is a pure drag on the talent that's already here, that is - unless he actually makes them worse, he should perform to expectations and take the team to at least the Sweet Sixteen. Anything less and he should be canned immediately. And, of course, if he's actually adding anything to the mix he'll take this team further than the Sweet Sixteen (otherwise he's purely dead weight).
I think sweet 16 is what he has to reach to start getting any support from the non-tuck fanbase. Anything beyond that, coupled with positive recruiting
may start to win some of us over. A tournament appearance with anything less than a sweet 16 doesn't get him fired, but it keeps definitely doesn't buy him any love. Anything less than that (especially if there's no signs of positive recruiting) should not be tolerated.
However, the reality is that with our fanbase this isn't what happens. He actually has a pretty good situation here. If he keeps the roster we have, he's pretty much guaranteed a tournament appearance and probably a couple wins which results in him earning more time from the majority of our fanbase. If several key players leave, even though he
should be held responsible for that he won't be. Our fans might actually grant him more time if that happens than if he'd somehow manage to final 4. And if he happens to beat KU next year we might as well accept that no matter what happens he's our coach for at least 5 or 6 years.