Say, hypothetically, Webers first 5 years are as follows:
12 - 23 Ws, 2nd in conference, sweet 16
13 - 21 Ws, 4th in conference, round of 32
14 - 19 Ws, 5th in conference, NIT
15 - 20 Ws, 4th in conference, 1st round NCAA
16 - 20 Ws, 4th in conference, NIT
Recruiting classes are average. Mostly 100-150 3* players. Goes 1-9 against KU.
Are these fairly average results a "big step back" for our program? Will weber have successfully "mehd us to death"?
Give or take, the hypo above is pretty much Frank Martin basketball. Slight edge to Martin, I'd guess.
I'll play AD. The bar is set at 3 NCAAs in 4 years, no less than an NIT in the fourth year and competing for the league title at least once every four years. I have heard this standard many times on this board (Rusty included I believe) and it's better than what happened in the Huggins/Martin 6 year run. Weber meets this criteria in his first four years, and I can't let my coach go into his 5th and final year without an extension, so tack three years onto the end of the original 5 year with a low buyout for making the minimum standard. It gets a bit tricky after year 5. If you say that you are now into the second 4 years, he's already used up his non-NCAA year. So you have to make a judgement call. Do you realistically see 3 straight NCAAs? Young roster with lots of key players coming back? Elite class coming in? If not, pull the trigger and can his ass. If so, let him know, privately, that another NIT won't be acceptable within his remaining contract.
I said NCAA tourney 4 out of 5 years is fine no matter what. When you are worse than that, which this hypothetical clearly is, you better have a damn good reason to retain him. I'm not sure a last-gasp elite class would be enough even if it was likely. 0 tourney wins and just one appearance in three years is pretty bad.
also, it's ridiculous to compare those results to the Huggins-Martin era. Not only are they worse in a vacuum, but they are FAR worse when you consider the rosters and overall health of the programs when each started.