Author Topic: FINAL UPDATE: 2015 Big 12 Four Factors (Read 6240 times)

Cire · « **Reply #1 on:** January 11, 2015, 09:49:09 AM »

Man we're terrible

kso_FAN · « **Reply #2 on:** January 11, 2015, 09:53:30 AM »

Here are the final numbers from last season. Like the rest of college basketball, efficiency is way down so far this season (as is shooting), but the sample size is still pretty small.

Mixed-Nutz · « **Reply #3 on:** January 11, 2015, 04:03:13 PM »

Quote from: ksu_FAN on January 11, 2015, 09:45:43 AM

Have you considered doing home and away spits. I think it would be more telling.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #4 on:** January 12, 2015, 09:33:51 AM »

Quote from: Mixed-Nutz on January 11, 2015, 04:03:13 PM

Have you considered doing home and away spits. I think it would be more telling.

Considered? Yes. Time to do so? No.

These stats are pretty skewed now because we've played less than 20% of the Big 12 schedule, but by the time we get halfway in they are still a pretty good barometer of the league.

I can do home/away for K-State easily enough and will put those up later.

cDubya · « **Reply #5 on:** January 13, 2015, 04:17:40 PM »

That TO %...

Half of those other stats, tho...

kso_FAN · « **Reply #6 on:** January 18, 2015, 10:13:38 AM »

Now featuring your first place Kansas State Wildcats!

As you can see, the numbers show the Cats to be a middle of the pack team. However, the biggest difference between these Cats and earlier Cats are that they have gained advantages (though very slight) in shooting and TOs. eFG% defense is substantially better (impressively holding opponents to 43.8% on 2s) in Big 12 play. Also, even though the improvement in our own TO% is slight (22.6% overall, 21.6% in Big 12), we are turning over teams slightly more (21.7% to 22.6%) and thus gaining an advantage. Many of the OOC losses were close games and that difference in forcing a couple more TOs and a couple more missed shots at this point is enough to equate to more wins than losses. Now we'll see if it is sustainable.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #7 on:** January 25, 2015, 11:43:32 AM »

We're at the 1/3 mark and history looks to be repeating itself; Big 12 basketball comes down to Kansas and then everyone else fighting for 2nd place. Once again a Bill Self team is dominating efficiency with solid shooting and rebounding while avoiding the dumb losses. Meanwhile Hoiberg continues to find ways to lose on the road and it appears once again the Cyclones will struggle to surpass 4 true road wins on the season. 2nd through 8th is a logjam when you look at efficiency differential with no team better than +.03 and no worse than +.01 in that group.

Then you have oscar's surging Cats sitting in 2nd place at 5-2, despite only having a +.02 differential. Thanks to Nino, the Cats have become a solid 2PT% team with okay 2PT% defense while not being really good or really bad at anything, expect oscar's patented #assistketball. The Cats are also shooting fewer 3s than any other oscar coached team in major conference play (only 21% of shots in Big 12 games), but still finding ways to win games. Holding serve at home and winning a road game in Norman are huge for this team, now we'll have to see if that continues. If the Cats can manage 3 Big 12 road wins and hold serve at home (they could probably even afford a single home loss to KU or ISU), then they will be squarely in the NCAA conversation when March rolls around.

pvegs · « **Reply #8 on:** January 25, 2015, 11:51:14 AM »

There's some weird stuff on that chart. Like us shooting 76% on FTs or TCU being almost 100 spots different between KP and RPI.

nicname · « **Reply #9 on:** January 25, 2015, 02:02:29 PM »

What is going on with TCU's FTR?

kso_FAN · « **Reply #10 on:** January 25, 2015, 02:22:13 PM »

Quote from: nicname on January 25, 2015, 02:02:29 PM

What is going on with TCU's FTR?

They are also 2nd in the country overall, but they have been ridiculous in the Big 12, plus playing WVU twice. Their FT rates in those games were 80% and 86%, with 38 attempts and 44 attempts respectively.

Expect a 2.5 to 3 hour game tomorrow.

Mixed-Nutz · « **Reply #11 on:** January 25, 2015, 02:28:32 PM »

Quote from: ksu_FAN on January 25, 2015, 11:43:32 AM

Has the big 12 ever have this kind of possession variance. Half the league is sitting on extremes.

Panjandrum · « **Reply #12 on:** January 25, 2015, 02:54:39 PM »

Man, that is a big difference in FTR for WVU. Hope we take advantage of that.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #13 on:** January 25, 2015, 03:03:16 PM »

Quote from: Panjandrum on January 25, 2015, 02:54:39 PM

Man, that is a big difference in FTR for WVU. Hope we take advantage of that.

We should. So far our FT rate in Big 12 play hasn't been great, but for the season we're still Top 10 in the country in FT rate.

cDubya · « **Reply #14 on:** January 25, 2015, 07:56:39 PM »

Quote from: ksu_FAN on January 25, 2015, 03:03:16 PM

Quote from: Panjandrum on January 25, 2015, 02:54:39 PM
Man, that is a big difference in FTR for WVU. Hope we take advantage of that.

We should. So far our FT rate in Big 12 play hasn't been great, but for the season we're still Top 10 in the country in FT rate.

You all will have an abundance of opportunities to get that % up against the 'Eers.

mocat · « **Reply #15 on:** January 26, 2015, 06:28:12 PM »

lol @ ISU and OU being so bad at defense that they're too lazy to even foul

Stevesie60 · « **Reply #16 on:** January 27, 2015, 01:43:02 AM »

How many more games does kenpom have us winning?

kso_FAN · « **Reply #17 on:** January 27, 2015, 06:29:45 AM »

Quote from: Stevesie60 on January 27, 2015, 01:43:02 AM

How many more games does kenpom have us winning?

Has us finishing 8-10 in the Big 12.

Tobias · « **Reply #18 on:** January 27, 2015, 07:15:52 AM »

is kenpom gonna have to chad ford this thing?

wetwillie · « **Reply #19 on:** January 27, 2015, 07:16:40 AM »

I think Ken pom forgot to put an El Nino factor in his algorithm.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #20 on:** January 27, 2015, 07:23:15 AM »

Meh to kenpom right now. Terrible December and not beating TCU and Tech badly has distorted our numbers. Yet we still have 2 top 15 wins and 3 in the top 30 over our last 5 games.

Meanwhile TCU is still #42 and they have 1 win this season over a team rated #150 or better in kenpom.

sys · « **Reply #21 on:** January 28, 2015, 06:13:45 PM »

Quote from: ksu_FAN on January 27, 2015, 07:23:15 AM

Meh to kenpom right now. Terrible December and not beating TCU and Tech badly has distorted our numbers. Yet we still have 2 top 15 wins and 3 in the top 30 over our last 5 games.

Meanwhile TCU is still #42 and they have 1 win this season over a team rated #150 or better in kenpom.

the entire big 12 is over kenpom rated.

sys · « **Reply #22 on:** January 28, 2015, 06:26:20 PM »

i mean you look at the big 12 team's records and basically not a one of them beat a good team in the out of conference. amazing how a conference can accumulate such great kenpoms and rpi's and not beat anyone along the way.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #23 on:** January 28, 2015, 10:27:04 PM »

Quote from: sys on January 28, 2015, 06:26:20 PM

i mean you look at the big 12 team's records and basically not a one of them beat a good team in the out of conference. amazing how a conference can accumulate such great kenpoms and rpi's and not beat anyone along the way.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/determining_the_best_conference

sys · « **Reply #24 on:** January 28, 2015, 11:52:18 PM »

Quote from: ksu_FAN on January 28, 2015, 10:27:04 PM

Quote from: sys on January 28, 2015, 06:26:20 PM
i mean you look at the big 12 team's records and basically not a one of them beat a good team in the out of conference. amazing how a conference can accumulate such great kenpoms and rpi's and not beat anyone along the way.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/determining_the_best_conference

interesting. a little circular since he's only discussing means of using his rankings, not alternate methods of rankings.