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Messages - catastrophe

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5751
That rate is gonna skyrocket in crisis mode cause they don’t have the time or resources to test healthy people.

Also the olds, but #1 probably has the bigger effect.

5752
I'm two episodes in and all of these animal people seem to be pieces of crap.
Big Cat people. Am I right?

5753
i don't think it is the case that lots of people (in the us) are going to die no matter what.  depending on your definition of lots of people, of course.


there's no reason we can't do what east asian countries have done, and keep it up until a vaccine is available.

Admittedly I do consider anything in the thousands to be "lots of people" which is probably less than most folks.  And I think there's plenty of reason we can't do what east asian countries have done.  We have no experience dealing with a rampant pandemic and have a way less centralized government and a far more "don't tell me what to do" attitude in our populous. 

5754
https://www.politico.eu/article/locked-down-europe-how-long-can-afford-this/

Quote
"It is impossible to live — even in self-isolation — and to cure people, if we do not continue the economic activity that, quite simply, permits us to live in this country,” he said while chairing an "economy task force" dealing with the outbreak.
Macron is also the most prominent voice to warn people that a vaccine is not imminent, and probably won't arrive until the end of 2021. The message is clear: It won't be possible for people to stay at home until then.

"It’s a very difficult balancing act," said Mujtaba Rahman, Europe director at EurasiaGroup, a political risk consultancy firm. "It’s not clear that any government has a credible exit strategy."

The Imperial College London study offers another approach: A phase of alternating lockdowns and relaxations over a total period of two years, during which governments relax social distancing measures for about a month, every three months or so.
Sébastien Maillard, director of the Jacques Delors Institute in Paris, said he expects “a moment more of strict confinement, gradually back to a functional economy, and perhaps unfortunately later in the year we’d have to go back to social confinement until we get that vaccine.”
Researchers warned that any periods of respite would be short. “Social distancing — plus school and university closure, if used — need to be in force for the majority of the two years of the simulation,” the study's authors wrote.
This leaves governments with the same dilemma: They will need to prepare their populations for either a year or more under lockdown, or for massive deaths in the coming months. Neither is an easy sell.

Not one person has said we are locking people up in their homes until a vaccine.  The whole goal right now is to give us time.  Time to handle more sick people, time to build up testing, time to develop a strategy for getting people back out, time to figure this virus details out, time to find therapeutic options.

How much time?  What is the exit strategy?

The point also is that to get all of the benefit of social distancing, you need to do it for 12-24 months, as stated in the Imperial College report.  Otherwise, you're still going to potentially have high death tolls.
Even some of the benefit is better than none. Outside of maybe three healthcare systems in the country, no one even knows the extent of the problem in the US right now. Once that is determined it can be handled mostly at the state and local level IF testing capacity is dramatically improved.

Lots of people are going to die no matter what. The immediate goal is to minimize the number that die as a result of overwhelmed doctors determining they’re not worth the resources and effort to save. Once we feel better about that number folks will start going back to work.

5755
It’s the biggest reason I’m a fan of UBI. Cut out tons of wasteful spending trying to figure out who gets what to give to whom.

5756
NEW (from me)

5757
China had clinics and a process in place already from SARS epidemics. They also have the ability to lock down large segments of their population on a moment’s notice.

There is definitely reason to think they could come out better than other developed countries with better healthcare. Still plenty of reason to doubt their numbers.

5758
That looks like a legit entertainer.

5759
That explanation is

Well you know

5760
Which is exactly why messaging from the President is so important here. People under shelter in place orders are going to assume they’re not doing any good because the numbers will keep going up for weeks.

5761
The concept of testing for antibodies and giving a hall pass to folks who have already built immunity is an interesting one. Seems way too early now but in a couple of months I wonder if that would be more widespread.

5762
What a loser. Enjoy being responsible for passing the stimulus bill twerp!!

5763
there is  such obvious evidence of mental decay in Biden that Bernie staying in the race is a decent hedge.

And this would be offensively opportunistic.
Yeah I don’t think it’s offensive, but agree with sys that he doesn’t have a shot regardless of what happens to Biden.

5764
I’ve learned the difference between me and MAGAs is that MAGAs are willing to die to keep the economy humming along and I’m willing to take a few years of recession in order to avoid death.
You also probably aren’t paying a second mortgage in student loan debt from the last recession too.
And look how you came out of that recession bud. Things are gonna be ok and we don’t have to let millions die to get there.

5765
I’ve learned the difference between me and MAGAs is that MAGAs are willing to die to keep the economy humming along and I’m willing to take a few years of recession in order to avoid death.

I think you might want to consider how many people will die because of an economic depression. Even in the last recession suicides and overdoses spiked, not to mention healthcare is deferred, etc. The birthrate also falls which, despite what the pro baby murder lobby around here thinks, is not a good thing.
I have models for how many are expected to die if we don’t take extreme measures now. I’m happy to review any estimates you have of how many will die due to recession to compare.

And OT, but one thing that could almost guarantee fewer suicides during a recession: stricter gun regulations.

5766
The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit / Re: MAGA
« on: March 24, 2020, 12:55:49 PM »
The thing about doing your own research is you really do need a certain competency to find actual facts. A lot of people do not have that competency.

At least MSM are frequently held to account when they publish false or misleading info. People rarely call out the types of sources Dax uses cause they’re written specifically for an audience who has no interest in questioning them.

5767
The flu deaths are still astonishing imo, like what if we didn't have a vaccine.
Yeah this whole deal provides a great opportunity for educating folks about the importance of getting the flu shot. Like, 20 yo Cat could have killed someone just cause he wasn’t worried about getting sick with the flu. :sdeek:

5768
I’ve learned the difference between me and MAGAs is that MAGAs are willing to die to keep the economy humming along and I’m willing to take a few years of recession in order to avoid death.

5769
Ol Miss got game

5770
What a bunch of snowflakes if they’d rather die than live through 5-10 years of inconvenience and lower quality of life.

5771
Which one was the serious answer again?

5772
I also think anecdotally Washington’s curve is probably skewed because they had death #10 really early in the spread since coronavirus hit a nursing home so soon.

5773
Yeah I mean I agree the raw number is important. Just don’t see the point of comparing raw # of deaths (not even cases) side by side for areas with vastly different population numbers. If you took the exact same mitigation strategy and implemented it in a place with 1k, 10k, and 100k people, the death toll would still be way different.

5774
Seems a little unfair to compare them side by side but not account for total population.

5775
Yeah, I’d be surprised about that Patrick quote. At the state level, though, TX has definitely been focusing more on mitigating the economic impacts of the virus vs the public health concerns. They’ve still been taking all the common sense measures—just not nearly enough without further restrictions placed by the cities (which thankfully they are doing).

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