https://www.politico.eu/article/locked-down-europe-how-long-can-afford-this/
"It is impossible to live — even in self-isolation — and to cure people, if we do not continue the economic activity that, quite simply, permits us to live in this country,” he said while chairing an "economy task force" dealing with the outbreak.
Macron is also the most prominent voice to warn people that a vaccine is not imminent, and probably won't arrive until the end of 2021. The message is clear: It won't be possible for people to stay at home until then.
"It’s a very difficult balancing act," said Mujtaba Rahman, Europe director at EurasiaGroup, a political risk consultancy firm. "It’s not clear that any government has a credible exit strategy."
The Imperial College London study offers another approach: A phase of alternating lockdowns and relaxations over a total period of two years, during which governments relax social distancing measures for about a month, every three months or so.
Sébastien Maillard, director of the Jacques Delors Institute in Paris, said he expects “a moment more of strict confinement, gradually back to a functional economy, and perhaps unfortunately later in the year we’d have to go back to social confinement until we get that vaccine.”
Researchers warned that any periods of respite would be short. “Social distancing — plus school and university closure, if used — need to be in force for the majority of the two years of the simulation,” the study's authors wrote.
This leaves governments with the same dilemma: They will need to prepare their populations for either a year or more under lockdown, or for massive deaths in the coming months. Neither is an easy sell.
Not one person has said we are locking people up in their homes until a vaccine. The whole goal right now is to give us time. Time to handle more sick people, time to build up testing, time to develop a strategy for getting people back out, time to figure this virus details out, time to find therapeutic options.
How much time? What is the exit strategy?
The point also is that to get all of the benefit of social distancing, you need to do it for 12-24 months, as stated in the Imperial College report. Otherwise, you're still going to potentially have high death tolls.
Even some of the benefit is better than none. Outside of maybe three healthcare systems in the country, no one even knows the extent of the problem in the US right now. Once that is determined it can be handled mostly at the state and local level IF testing capacity is dramatically improved.
Lots of people are going to die no matter what. The immediate goal is to minimize the number that die as a result of overwhelmed doctors determining they’re not worth the resources and effort to save. Once we feel better about that number folks will start going back to work.