And, if we're a 10-8 and 2nd/3rd in conference, we'll be in the tourny.
the committee has said many times they don't look at conference standings.
Generally speaking finishing 2nd or 3rd means you beat at least a couple of good teams along the way but if KU is clearly the only elite team in the big 12 and we get swept by them and are tied for 3rd at 10-8 maybe make for just a high NIT seed.
Also, I think Towniecat posted that there has never been an atlarge bid to a team with 15 losses,10-8 with a loss in KC = 15
First, the conference standings thing has been true, but that's because almost every conference has had unbalanced schedules. Quality wins, road wins, etc. will still be the standard, but finishing 2nd/3rd in the Big 12 will likely mean you've done very well at those things because of the true round robin schedule.
The Big 12 is going to have at least 7-8 quality teams, so if you win 10 games you will probably have 6 quality wins.
As you said, 10 wins puts K-State on the bubble, but probably not in because of the OOC losses. I'd say at least 11 Big 12 wins with 7 of those being "quality" will be minimum.