Author Topic: Random KSU Football stats  (Read 3411 times)

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Offline CHONGS

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Random KSU Football stats
« on: September 18, 2018, 04:24:25 PM »
Through 3 games, KSU has had about 90 first down opportunities on offense.  About 70% of the time we run the ball.



Our defense has faced about 95 first downs, about 57% of the time the opponent ran the ball.



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« Last Edit: September 18, 2018, 04:28:49 PM by Chingon »

Offline BIG APPLE CAT

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Re: Random KSU Football stats
« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2018, 04:54:46 PM »
V low graph IQ here, what qualifies as a "first down oppy"?

Offline pissclams

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Re: Random KSU Football stats
« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2018, 05:03:54 PM »
does this team suffer from an identity crisis?  according to these statistics we certainly do. 


Cheesy Mustache QB might make an appearance.

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Offline CHONGS

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Re: Random KSU Football stats
« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2018, 05:07:26 PM »
The down marker has a one on it. It's possible I've missed something, do my numbers seem off?

Offline CHONGS

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Re: Random KSU Football stats
« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2018, 05:23:27 PM »
KSU has had about 50 chances to convert on third down.  58% of the time we pass. Our mean distance to go is about 8 yards, but most common is 3rd and 5.  Here is a distribution:



Here is a distribution of the difference between the yards gained and the yards needed on 3rd down. We convert about 38%.



And the same stuff but for our defense (mean 3rd and 7, most common 3rd and 10):






Offline kso_FAN

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Random KSU Football stats
« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2018, 11:15:16 AM »
I'm getting slightly different numbers than that. Still, run vs pass on 1st down is 2:1.

« Last Edit: September 19, 2018, 02:20:28 PM by kso_FAN »

Offline CHONGS

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Re: Random KSU Football stats
« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2018, 01:27:36 PM »
KSU on Third Down



As expected, as the distance to convert a third down gets longer, our conversion % drops.



That 100% conversion rate against us for 3rd down and between 15 and 20 yards is only out of one opportunity, but I think we all remember that one well...

Offline nicname

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Re: Random KSU Football stats
« Reply #7 on: September 19, 2018, 01:39:52 PM »
I need to know if I'm breaking down your calculations correctly.

Offensively it seems our Cats are running often on first down, but also often having little success. On the rare occasion they toss the pigskin our Cats see a bit more success?

Defensively our Cats are seeing opponents employ a more balanced strategy. This is good for us, because opponents usually run through our Cat defense like a wet napkin. This is telling me I'm right to be happy when opponents throw on first down because they are more likely to gain zero yards rather than gash our Cats for nice run gains. I don't know if this is correct.

It also makes me sad that these breaks given by opponents don't seem to matter when our Cats need to make a stop on 3rd and longer. 

Note: My opinion is heavily skewed by the results of the Miss St. and SD games. I have also not watched the UTSA game.
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Offline CHONGS

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Re: Random KSU Football stats
« Reply #8 on: September 19, 2018, 02:29:42 PM »
On first down, if we run the ball, we average about 4 yds.  This is misleading a bit though because the distribution is not normal.  The most common outcome is a gain of 1.  With passing, the average is 9 yds and most common is 0 yds.

When on defense, if the opponent runs the ball, they average about 6 yds, the most common outcome is a gain of 5.  If they pass, they average about 4 yd, the most common is 0 yds.

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Random KSU Football stats
« Reply #9 on: September 19, 2018, 03:06:02 PM »
On first down, if we run the ball, we average about 4 yds.  This is misleading a bit though because the distribution is not normal.  The most common outcome is a gain of 1.  With passing, the average is 9 yds and most common is 0 yds.

When on defense, if the opponent runs the ball, they average about 6 yds, the most common outcome is a gain of 5.  If they pass, they average about 4 yd, the most common is 0 yds.

Yeah, that's where I look at success rate (gaining at least 5 yards on 1st and 10). We've only done that 35% of the time running the ball.

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Re: Random KSU Football stats
« Reply #10 on: September 19, 2018, 04:04:05 PM »
Breakdown of yard gained with passing and rushing by who is the QB at the time:



Now Skylar has a little more than twice as many snaps as Alex, but I did find that gap in the short range (5-10 yds) passing game interesting.

Offline wetwillie

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Re: Random KSU Football stats
« Reply #11 on: September 19, 2018, 07:00:16 PM »
Stats should be actionable, what do you suggest our team do different in light of this data?
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Offline CHONGS

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Re: Random KSU Football stats
« Reply #12 on: September 19, 2018, 07:23:24 PM »
Call more plays that score TDs.

Offline pissclams

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Re: Random KSU Football stats
« Reply #13 on: September 19, 2018, 07:31:51 PM »
we need to feed these stats into a cray and have that sob call our plays.  that way we could fire andre dimel asap.


Cheesy Mustache QB might make an appearance.

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Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Random KSU Football stats
« Reply #14 on: September 19, 2018, 09:59:45 PM »
On first down, if we run the ball, we average about 4 yds.  This is misleading a bit though because the distribution is not normal.  The most common outcome is a gain of 1.  With passing, the average is 9 yds and most common is 0 yds.

When on defense, if the opponent runs the ball, they average about 6 yds, the most common outcome is a gain of 5.  If they pass, they average about 4 yd, the most common is 0 yds.

Yeah, that's where I look at success rate (gaining at least 5 yards on 1st and 10). We've only done that 35% of the time running the ball.

They're certainly your stats but shouldn't 4 yards be considered a success? 4 YPC results in first downs vis a vis touchdowns, barring penalties.

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Random KSU Football stats
« Reply #15 on: September 19, 2018, 10:20:12 PM »
On first down, if we run the ball, we average about 4 yds.  This is misleading a bit though because the distribution is not normal.  The most common outcome is a gain of 1.  With passing, the average is 9 yds and most common is 0 yds.

When on defense, if the opponent runs the ball, they average about 6 yds, the most common outcome is a gain of 5.  If they pass, they average about 4 yd, the most common is 0 yds.

Yeah, that's where I look at success rate (gaining at least 5 yards on 1st and 10). We've only done that 35% of the time running the ball.

They're certainly your stats but shouldn't 4 yards be considered a success? 4 YPC results in first downs vis a vis touchdowns, barring penalties.

Not my stats, Bill Connelly of footballstudyhall.com did the research behind them. I can see the case for 4 yards being successful on 1st down, but he sets it at 50% of the yards to gain.

Offline BIG APPLE CAT

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Re: Random KSU Football stats
« Reply #16 on: September 20, 2018, 09:27:58 AM »
Do any of these stats have a way to normalize for situational plays? Like for example it's 3rd and 7 but it's 4 down territory so maybe you're only trying to make it 4th and 2 instead of getting all of it in one play. Or, same 3rd and 7 but all you need is to run some clock and kick a field goal so you run a play that will keep the clock running and keep you in fg range but you were never really expecting to pick up the 1st down?

I dunno, seems like there is a statistically significant portion of the game where the objective isn't necessarily to gain 10 yards in 3 or fewer plays and repeat until you score a touchdown

Offline SleepFighter

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Re: Random KSU Football stats
« Reply #17 on: September 20, 2018, 10:21:39 AM »
On first down, if we run the ball, we average about 4 yds.  This is misleading a bit though because the distribution is not normal.  The most common outcome is a gain of 1.  With passing, the average is 9 yds and most common is 0 yds.

When on defense, if the opponent runs the ball, they average about 6 yds, the most common outcome is a gain of 5.  If they pass, they average about 4 yd, the most common is 0 yds.

Yeah, that's where I look at success rate (gaining at least 5 yards on 1st and 10). We've only done that 35% of the time running the ball.

They're certainly your stats but shouldn't 4 yards be considered a success? 4 YPC results in first downs vis a vis touchdowns, barring penalties.

Not my stats, Bill Connelly of footballstudyhall.com did the research behind them. I can see the case for 4 yards being successful on 1st down, but he sets it at 50% of the yards to gain.

What a dope. You'll never get a first down at that rate!

Offline BIG APPLE CAT

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Re: Random KSU Football stats
« Reply #18 on: September 20, 2018, 10:38:37 AM »
On first down, if we run the ball, we average about 4 yds.  This is misleading a bit though because the distribution is not normal.  The most common outcome is a gain of 1.  With passing, the average is 9 yds and most common is 0 yds.

When on defense, if the opponent runs the ball, they average about 6 yds, the most common outcome is a gain of 5.  If they pass, they average about 4 yd, the most common is 0 yds.

Yeah, that's where I look at success rate (gaining at least 5 yards on 1st and 10). We've only done that 35% of the time running the ball.

They're certainly your stats but shouldn't 4 yards be considered a success? 4 YPC results in first downs vis a vis touchdowns, barring penalties.

Not my stats, Bill Connelly of footballstudyhall.com did the research behind them. I can see the case for 4 yards being successful on 1st down, but he sets it at 50% of the yards to gain.

What a dope. You'll never get a first down at that rate!

Don't call him a dope, there's no need for hyperbole

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Random KSU Football stats
« Reply #19 on: September 20, 2018, 10:43:37 AM »
On first down, if we run the ball, we average about 4 yds.  This is misleading a bit though because the distribution is not normal.  The most common outcome is a gain of 1.  With passing, the average is 9 yds and most common is 0 yds.

When on defense, if the opponent runs the ball, they average about 6 yds, the most common outcome is a gain of 5.  If they pass, they average about 4 yd, the most common is 0 yds.

Yeah, that's where I look at success rate (gaining at least 5 yards on 1st and 10). We've only done that 35% of the time running the ball.

They're certainly your stats but shouldn't 4 yards be considered a success? 4 YPC results in first downs vis a vis touchdowns, barring penalties.

Not my stats, Bill Connelly of footballstudyhall.com did the research behind them. I can see the case for 4 yards being successful on 1st down, but he sets it at 50% of the yards to gain.

What a dope. You'll never get a first down at that rate!

2nd down is 70% of the yards to gain 3rd/4th down is 100% to be a "successful play" for Connelly's success rate system.

Offline CHONGS

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Re: Random KSU Football stats
« Reply #20 on: September 20, 2018, 10:54:40 AM »
Do any of these stats have a way to normalize for situational plays? Like for example it's 3rd and 7 but it's 4 down territory so maybe you're only trying to make it 4th and 2 instead of getting all of it in one play. Or, same 3rd and 7 but all you need is to run some clock and kick a field goal so you run a play that will keep the clock running and keep you in fg range but you were never really expecting to pick up the 1st down?

I dunno, seems like there is a statistically significant portion of the game where the objective isn't necessarily to gain 10 yards in 3 or fewer plays and repeat until you score a touchdown
It is probably possible.  This would lead back to something like Bill Connelly's success metric (which isn't unreasonable IMO).

The raw data I have looks like the following (this is just a snippet):


Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Random KSU Football stats
« Reply #21 on: September 20, 2018, 11:11:10 AM »
When you put all of Connelly's 5 factors together, I'm convinced its the best stats system for football out there.

https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/1/24/5337968/college-football-five-factors

Offline MadCat

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Re: Random KSU Football stats
« Reply #22 on: September 20, 2018, 11:30:39 AM »
Ron Prince called a 4 yard gain a success...in 4 downs (of 4 yard gains each) that equals a first down!

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Random KSU Football stats
« Reply #23 on: September 21, 2018, 04:59:26 AM »
Ron Prince called a 4 yard gain a success...in 4 downs (of 4 yard gains each) that equals a first down!

4 yards, or in this example 40% on first down, should be considered successful because you only need three downs to achieve a first down.

Offline MadCat

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Re: Random KSU Football stats
« Reply #24 on: September 21, 2018, 08:53:52 AM »
Ron Prince called a 4 yard gain a success...in 4 downs (of 4 yard gains each) that equals a first down!

4 yards, or in this example 40% on first down, should be considered successful because you only need three downs to achieve a first down.

You're right...I think he said this of a 3 yard gain.  My bad