Author Topic: ChUPAR 2018  (Read 13157 times)

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Offline CHONGS

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ChUPAR 2018
« on: September 17, 2018, 04:03:34 PM »
That's right baby, it's back.  After three weeks of games I can release CHingon's Ultimate Programmatic Accomplishment Rankings (ChUPAR).

Top 25


Big 12


Sadly KSU is ranked very low...and the whole Big 12 is not impressing too much this early in the year.  Unsurprisingly we have the worst offense in the conference, and defense isn't much better.

Our game summaries so far:

Raw


Adjusted


Our next opponent is the nefarious West Virginia. They only have one real game under their belt so they are relatively unknown, but here are their games:

Raw


Adj



Matchup:


Clearly, KSU will be underdogs in this affair, but you just never know. That is why they play the games!  Perhaps ChUPAR is full of crap?  It could be!

99 Kansas State16
12 WVU38


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Offline meow meow

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Re: ChUPAR 2018
« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2018, 04:11:49 PM »
straight to the bottom.....

not very LRWTP to purple

Offline MadCat

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Re: ChUPAR 2018
« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2018, 04:20:37 PM »
Let's Roll LRWTP to Purple nonetheless!

Offline DQ12

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Re: ChUPAR 2018
« Reply #3 on: September 17, 2018, 04:32:51 PM »
How is KU ahead of TCU?  This thing doesn't seem to care a lick who you lose to, is that correct?


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChUPAR 2018
« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2018, 04:54:31 PM »
How is KU ahead of TCU?  This thing doesn't seem to care a lick who you lose to, is that correct?
The ChUPAR philosophy:  You are never (explicitly) penalized for a win, and never (explicitly) rewarded for a loss.

You are explicitly penalized for losing to a bad team and KU was. The biggest reasons KU is slightly ahead of TCU is because
1) its very early and there there isn't a big spread in accomplishment yet
2) they have better efficiency numbers
3) KU's two wins are slightly better than TCU's

Raw:



Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChUPAR 2018
« Reply #5 on: September 17, 2018, 05:02:04 PM »
In fact, if KU has won that OT game against Nicolls they would have been ranked 21 by ChUPAR. So the loss dropped them 26 spots.

Offline DQ12

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Re: ChUPAR 2018
« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2018, 12:35:43 PM »
In fact, if KU has won that OT game against Nicolls they would have been ranked 21 by ChUPAR. So the loss dropped them 26 spots.
Hm...


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChUPAR 2018
« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2018, 04:53:29 PM »
Looking to make some money this weekend?  Here are some ChUPAR Predictos!



Use responsibly!

--- fixed the ranks to include KU having a loss again
« Last Edit: September 21, 2018, 08:56:26 AM by Chingon »

Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChUPAR 2018
« Reply #8 on: September 20, 2018, 04:56:29 PM »
Oops KU is not ranked 21, but other than that it's the same.

^^ this has been fixed now
« Last Edit: September 21, 2018, 08:56:11 AM by Chingon »

Offline Pete

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Re: ChUPAR 2018
« Reply #9 on: September 20, 2018, 05:55:23 PM »
WE ARE TOP 100! 

 :lynchmob:

Offline Pete

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Re: ChUPAR 2018
« Reply #10 on: September 20, 2018, 05:56:11 PM »
Looking to make some money this weekend?  Here are some ChUPAR Predictos!



Use responsibly!

Tell me how to interpret this

Offline Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)

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Re: ChUPAR 2018
« Reply #11 on: September 20, 2018, 05:56:26 PM »
That data is sketch as eff.
goEMAW Karmic BBS Shepherd

Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChUPAR 2018
« Reply #12 on: September 20, 2018, 07:51:18 PM »
Looking to make some money this weekend?  Here are some ChUPAR Predictos!



Use responsibly!

Tell me how to interpret this
Which part?

Offline Pete

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Re: ChUPAR 2018
« Reply #13 on: September 20, 2018, 10:16:15 PM »
Looking to make some money this weekend?  Here are some ChUPAR Predictos!



Use responsibly!

Tell me how to interpret this
Which part?

Is that your predicted spread and money line?

Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChUPAR 2018
« Reply #14 on: September 20, 2018, 10:28:05 PM »
Yeah, not much data to get yet so some are pretty strange looking

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: ChUPAR 2018
« Reply #15 on: September 20, 2018, 10:41:15 PM »
I don't understand the spread part, how do you tell who is favored?

Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChUPAR 2018
« Reply #16 on: September 21, 2018, 07:17:46 AM »
I don't understand the spread part, how do you tell who is favored?
It's always relative to the home team.

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: ChUPAR 2018
« Reply #17 on: September 21, 2018, 07:58:03 AM »
I don't understand the spread part, how do you tell who is favored?
It's always relative to the home team.

K, I thought so, but then saw some of the rankings and got confused. Home field play a big role in this or what?

Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChUPAR 2018
« Reply #18 on: September 21, 2018, 08:01:13 AM »
I don't understand the spread part, how do you tell who is favored?
It's always relative to the home team.

K, I thought so, but then saw some of the rankings and got confused. Home field play a big role in this or what?

Home field is worth about 3 points. The rank is the ChUPAR ranking.

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: ChUPAR 2018
« Reply #19 on: September 21, 2018, 08:09:52 AM »
I don't understand the spread part, how do you tell who is favored?
It's always relative to the home team.

K, I thought so, but then saw some of the rankings and got confused. Home field play a big role in this or what?

Home field is worth about 3 points. The rank is the ChUPAR ranking.

I was looking at the ND/Wake game

Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChUPAR 2018
« Reply #20 on: September 21, 2018, 08:12:00 AM »
I don't understand the spread part, how do you tell who is favored?
It's always relative to the home team.

K, I thought so, but then saw some of the rankings and got confused. Home field play a big role in this or what?

Home field is worth about 3 points. The rank is the ChUPAR ranking.

I was looking at the ND/Wake game
Yeah if you look at ND they don't have a great efficiency number.

Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChUPAR 2018
« Reply #21 on: September 26, 2018, 11:18:30 AM »
Week 4


We always hear about winning the turnover battle, but a we saw last week it's pretty meaningless when you force a fumble and then go three and out in the very next drive without scoring.  I think what is more important is how many points per turnover a team can generate (or lose).  To this end, I have added a new stat, afterTO, which is the net points scored immediately after a turnover per opportunity.  So if your defense generates a lot of turnovers, but and your offense can successfully convert them into points AND your offense doesn't create turnovers that lead to opposition points you will have a large positive number.  If your offense gives up turnovers that your opponent then turns into points AND your offense can't take advantage of turnovers it will be negative.  If you give up about as many point off of turnovers as you get then it will be about 0.  This stat kind of measures how well a team can take advantage of an opportunity, balanced against how well they can recover from a mistake.

For every turnover in a game with Alabama they net about 3.83 points.  For South Carolina they lose about a point for every turnover.

As of now, afterTO does not factor into the final ChUPAR ranking.



KSU offense is anemic, but really not THAT different from last year (we ended up at 1.65 ppd):

2017 vs 2018 (raw)

(adj)



Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChUPAR 2018
« Reply #22 on: September 26, 2018, 11:26:52 AM »
Matchup:


Maybe we can take advantage of our slight edge in special teams to steal one at home.  I can easily see our defense putting up a valiant fight for 3 quarters but giving up the ghost in the fourth as our offense just can't stay on the field.  The odds-makers are saying it's about KSU +9, but ChUPAR thinks its +13


Offline hemmy

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Re: ChUPAR 2018
« Reply #23 on: September 26, 2018, 01:01:13 PM »
Never liked the ChUPAR, and this confirms it! Sad.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: ChUPAR 2018
« Reply #24 on: September 26, 2018, 01:03:38 PM »
I know it's early but ChUPAR seems volatile a.f.