ChiPOTLE 2016

[MakeItRain]

Do the extreme number of outliers this has when compared to other computer models concern you?

Not really.  I expected this to different from other models.  I "think" I can explain any outliers I have, and they are consistent with the objective criterion I eastablished.

My goal is to only explicitly award for wins and not explicitly punish for losses (this makes it quite different). In this system, strength of schedule doesn't mean crap if you can't beat the good teams you play.  You get accomplishment "rewards" only for wins.  Moral victories and losses don't mean much beyond how they affect the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers.   

This is not really for predictive purposes, just one possible way to objectively order teams where the ranking criteria is based on five factors:
how efficient is your offense , defense, long drive offense, long drive defense, and who have you beat.

Please explain your teams 5-10; I'm not understanding that grouping if the rewards are for wins. The wins, individually and collectively, for that group are pedestrian at best.

[CHONGS]

Chi is the combination of Win% (as determined by efficiency numbers) and Acc (Accomplishments).  In fact it's just the average.

Here are Alabama's accomplishments:
Alabama
17 USC, 40 Western Kentucky, 24 Mississippi, 102 Kent State, 81 Kentucky, 58 Arkansas, 7 Tennessee, 11 Texas A&M, 28 LSU, 55 Mississippi State

They have racked up the most accomplishments so far, so they get a 1.  Everyone else gets a score relative to this.

Penn State
102 Kent State, 44 Temple, 61 Minnesota, 89 Maryland, 3 Ohio State, 119 Purdue., 21 Iowa, 60 Indiana
Acc: 0.65
Summary: decent win% (0.65) and decent accomplishments (they have a top 10 win)

Boise State
93 Louisiana Lafayette, 15 Washington State, 105 Oregon State, 103 Utah State, 68 New Mexico, 69 Colorado State, 53 BYU, 114 San Jose State, 100 Hawaii
Acc: 0.44
Summary: good win% (0.84), but they greatly depend on the Washington State win

Tennessee
42 Appalachian State, 16 Virginia Tech, 51 Ohio, 18 Florida, 22 Georgia, 81 Kentucky
Acc: 0.66
Summary: decent win% (61), a few solid top 25 wins

Wisconsin
28 LSU, 85 Akron, 116 Georgia State, 88 Michigan State, 21 Iowa, 37 Nebraska, 45 Northwestern, 122 Illinois
Acc: 0.43
Summary: good win% (80), wins were better a couple of weeks ago

Auburn
70 Arkansas State, 28 LSU, 104 Louisiana Monroe, 55 Mississippi State, 58 Arkansas, 24 Mississippi, 83 Vanderbilt
Acc: 0.40
Summary: good win% (79), wins are starting to slide

Pittsburgh
5 Penn State, 106 Marshall., 35 Georgia Tech, 86 Virginia, 4 Clemson
Acc: 0.70
Summary: average win% (48), but great wins (2 top 10 wins)

Here is the top 25 teams just on accomplishment


and here is the top 25 teams just on win%

[mocat]

this week is the annual SEC SOS adjustment week 

[kslim]

this week is the annual SEC SOS adjustment week 

FL VS LSU is really rough ridin' that up

[cDubya]

I would absolutely love to see the spreadsheet/coding/whatever you use for this. Simply to look at all the work that goes into it.

Awesome stuff every week, Chings.

[CHONGS]

I use Mathematica for this stuff. 

[CHONGS]

Updated!

Top 25


Big 12


KSU Weekly


This weeks matchup for #200!


Projected no. of wins:

[ChiComCat]

Looks like K-State may sweep "underachieving middle" and ISU for "thank god Tech and KU are in this conference"

[CHONGS]

Updated up to 11//28/2016

Top 25



If we start looking ahead at how  CHIngons Preferred Playoff System (ChiPPS) would look this year.  As a reminder it's as follows:
5 Conference Champs
Highest Ranked from "group of 5"
2 at large (two highest ranked remaining teams with the caveat that at most two teams from a conference can be the playoffs)

If we assume the "favorites" win out:

1. Alabama (SEC Champ)
8. Oklahoma State (Big 12 Champ)

4. Wisconsin (Big Ten Champ)
5. USC (at Large)

6. Washington (Pac 12 Champs)
3. Clemson (ACC Champ)

7. Boise State (G5)
2. Michigan (at large)

The seeding could be jiggled around. Appears unfair for Ohio State at this moment, but there is a chance that they can sneak past Michigan (heavily depends on Colorado losing and OU beating Oklahoma State). 

Big 12

KSU has vanquished almost all of the mediocre middle (and might still pull off the Texas sweep) and well as surviving upset bids from the terrible trio at the bottom.  With no wins over ranked teams (best win is currently #60 Texas), however, that keeps the Cats sadly pinned into the realm of irrelevance.  Unless KSU bucks the trend and can beat a decent team in a bowl game, the main highlight of the season will likely be Bill's #200.

KSU has the number 6 offense and the number 3 defense.   

Oklahoma State has the top spot almost solely due to having the best win the conference (Pittsburgh).  Even if they had a W against Central Michigan, due to the poor quality of the Big 12, they would still only be ranked in the high teens.


KSU Weekly



KSU - TCU match up

45% of getting that 8th win!

[POWL]

doesn't Billy beat someone he shouldn't at least once a year ?   

[CHONGS]

doesn't Billy beat someone he shouldn't at least once a year ?   

No he almost never does, to a pathological degree. 

[pissclams]

i can't believe that ChiPOTLE 2016 doesn't like OU more than it does.  i guess that's the difference between the clamsometer and ChiPOTLE 2016 though, that's what i always say.

the clamsometer has them at 6

[DQ12]

is it the clams-o-meter or the clamsahmitter

[pissclams]

i always just call it the clamsometer and so do all of the national pundits

[kslim]

really need mocat to come in with his snow brag rankings

[mocat]

really need mocat to come in with his snow brag rankings

1. Alabama .980
2. Ohio State .930
3. Michigan .919
4. Washington .909
5. Clemson .901
6. Penn State .880
7. Western Michigan .877
8. Wisconsin .870
9. Western Kentucky .867
10. Boise State 0.867
11. Oklahoma .866
12. Louisville .861
13. USF .853
14. Colorado .851
15. LSU .849
16. USC .848
17. Auburn .847
18. Navy .843
19. Florida State .838
20. Miami (FL) .837
21. West Virginia .837
22. Oklahoma State .835
23. Appalachian State .830
24. Temple .826
25. Tennessee .823

54. Kansas State .768
55. TCU .763
67. Baylor .741
73. Texas .730
78. Texas Tech .720
101. Iowa State .679
124. Kansas .632

Colorado 26
Washington 32

Oklahoma State 34
Oklahoma 38

Alabama 28
Florida 17

Clemson 31
Virginia Tech 24

Wisconsin 26
Penn State 25

Kansas State 30
TCU 29

[mocat]

looks like chipotle and snowbrag have the wisconsin, texas tech, and iowa state spots locked the F down

[kslim]

 

[MakeItRain]

doesn't Billy beat someone he shouldn't at least once a year ?   

No he almost never does, to a pathological degree.

POWL is correct
2015-WVU
2014-OU
2013-Tech
2012-OU
2011-Baylor
2010-none
2009-Iowa State, KU, and A&M all finished with higher Sagarin ratings
As much as people will try to change the narrative, Baylor was favored this year.

[kso_FAN]

_FANfactors:

Differential of each of the 5 factors (only Big 12 games) rated from 1-10. Those are then weighted based on win% of each factor for the total.

[CHONGS]

doesn't Billy beat someone he shouldn't at least once a year ?   

No he almost never does, to a pathological degree.

POWL is correct
2015-WVU
2014-OU
2013-Tech
2012-OU
2011-Baylor
2010-none
2009-Iowa State, KU, and A&M all finished with higher Sagarin ratings
As much as people will try to change the narrative, Baylor was favored this year.

I would respectfully disagree and say that most of those were teams we should have beat and not large upsets, but Sagarin's rating disagree with me and he gets a lot more cred than I do.   I will grant Bill has had some minor upset victories.

I was thinking about this the other day: what are the top 20 wins for LHC Bill Snyder and how important to college football were they?  I might start a new thread on that...

In any case, I always think about the end of the year ratings/ranking and not who was favored at the time. 

[MakeItRain]

doesn't Billy beat someone he shouldn't at least once a year ?   

No he almost never does, to a pathological degree.

POWL is correct
2015-WVU
2014-OU
2013-Tech
2012-OU
2011-Baylor
2010-none
2009-Iowa State, KU, and A&M all finished with higher Sagarin ratings
As much as people will try to change the narrative, Baylor was favored this year.

I would respectfully disagree and say that most of those were teams we should have beat and not large upsets, but Sagarin's rating disagree with me and he gets a lot more cred than I do.   I will grant Bill has had some minor upset victories.

I was thinking about this the other day: what are the top 20 wins for LHC Bill Snyder and how important to college football were they?  I might start a new thread on that...

In any case, I always think about the end of the year ratings/ranking and not who was favored at the time.

He said "a game he shouldn't" which can be taken several ways. The problem specifically with LHC Bill Snyder teams and taking end of the year ratings are two fold:
1. Since he takes so few losses against teams he is supposed to beat he gets penalized for teams doing what he doesn't, get upset.
2. There are cases like 2013 Texas Tech where at the time of the game they were favored against KSU and lost, but at the end of the year their ratings are very close so in this measurement he's being penalized for actually beating said team.

It seems as if he doesn't have many big upsets, then again, outside of teams below average, who does?

[CHONGS]

doesn't Billy beat someone he shouldn't at least once a year ?   

No he almost never does, to a pathological degree.

POWL is correct
2015-WVU
2014-OU
2013-Tech
2012-OU
2011-Baylor
2010-none
2009-Iowa State, KU, and A&M all finished with higher Sagarin ratings
As much as people will try to change the narrative, Baylor was favored this year.

I would respectfully disagree and say that most of those were teams we should have beat and not large upsets, but Sagarin's rating disagree with me and he gets a lot more cred than I do.   I will grant Bill has had some minor upset victories.

I was thinking about this the other day: what are the top 20 wins for LHC Bill Snyder and how important to college football were they?  I might start a new thread on that...

In any case, I always think about the end of the year ratings/ranking and not who was favored at the time.

He said "a game he shouldn't" which can be taken several ways. The problem specifically with LHC Bill Snyder teams and taking end of the year ratings are two fold:
1. Since he takes so few losses against teams he is supposed to beat he gets penalized for teams doing what he doesn't, get upset.
2. There are cases like 2013 Texas Tech where at the time of the game they were favored against KSU and lost, but at the end of the year their ratings are very close so in this measurement he's being penalized for actually beating said team.

It seems as if he doesn't have many big upsets, then again, outside of teams below average, who does?

I know that beating teams you are supposed to is good and the second pillar KSU football was built on (the other being scheduling teams you should beat).   

I think what makes teams above average to great is the ability to pull of more upsets (when given the chance to, so it's a ratio = upsets/chances for upsets).  Sure, Urban Meyer isn't going to upset that many teams based on the fact he will have the better team more often than not, but when he gets the chance I bet (totally unfounded speculation I could be wrong) his win % against teams that finish "better" is higher than a more average coach. 

[MakeItRain]

doesn't Billy beat someone he shouldn't at least once a year ?   

No he almost never does, to a pathological degree.

POWL is correct
2015-WVU
2014-OU
2013-Tech
2012-OU
2011-Baylor
2010-none
2009-Iowa State, KU, and A&M all finished with higher Sagarin ratings
As much as people will try to change the narrative, Baylor was favored this year.

I would respectfully disagree and say that most of those were teams we should have beat and not large upsets, but Sagarin's rating disagree with me and he gets a lot more cred than I do.   I will grant Bill has had some minor upset victories.

I was thinking about this the other day: what are the top 20 wins for LHC Bill Snyder and how important to college football were they?  I might start a new thread on that...

In any case, I always think about the end of the year ratings/ranking and not who was favored at the time.

He said "a game he shouldn't" which can be taken several ways. The problem specifically with LHC Bill Snyder teams and taking end of the year ratings are two fold:
1. Since he takes so few losses against teams he is supposed to beat he gets penalized for teams doing what he doesn't, get upset.
2. There are cases like 2013 Texas Tech where at the time of the game they were favored against KSU and lost, but at the end of the year their ratings are very close so in this measurement he's being penalized for actually beating said team.

It seems as if he doesn't have many big upsets, then again, outside of teams below average, who does?

I know that beating teams you are supposed to is good and the second pillar KSU football was built on (the other being scheduling teams you should beat).   

I think what makes teams above average to great is the ability to pull of more upsets (when given the chance to, so it's a ratio = upsets/chances for upsets).  Sure, Urban Meyer isn't going to upset that many teams based on the fact he will have the better team more often than not, but when he gets the chance I bet (totally unfounded speculation I could be wrong) his win % against teams that finish "better" is higher than a more average coach.

You've kind of moved the goalposts on this one but whatever. I'm not claiming Snyder is Urban Meyer.

I'd be interested to see how many times Urban has been an underdog at OSU, certainly less than five, he was an underdog in both of their CFP games in 2015, maybe OU this year, I don't remember. OSU was #18 in the country his first game there even after they went 6-7 in 2011. I bet you'd have to go back to Bowling Green for him to get to 10 games in which he was an underdog.

[Skipper44]

I know Kansas State was pretty great vs the spread in the 90s and I would guess the 93 season had to have a couple upsets outright according to Vegas.