ChiPOTLE 2016

[CHONGS]

Ohio State's win accomplishment is worse than Boise's? 

As of today Ohio State has a win over a good team (Wisconsin) and an above average team (OU), while Boise has a very good win (Wash State) and this gives them a very slight edge.  Boise St is about maxed out though based on their schedule, so moving up is going to be very difficult. As the year progresses, their relative accomplishments will fall.  This listing is different than typical rankings in that you move up from winning big games more than you necessarily move down from losing.  You can easily get passed even if you win out if the teams below you can rack up good wins while you don't.

[CHONGS]

The schedule actually sets up perfectly for 7-5

Prob for 7-5 is about 23% right now.

[Rage Against the McKee]

Looks like a pretty strong probability for 6 or more wins.

[CHONGS]

Looks like a pretty strong probability for 6 or more wins.

66%!

[BIG APPLE CAT]

Ohio State's win accomplishment is worse than Boise's? 

As of today Ohio State has a win over a good team (Wisconsin) and an above average team (OU), while Boise has a very good win (Wash State) and this gives them a very slight edge.  Boise St is about maxed out though based on their schedule, so moving up is going to be very difficult. As the year progresses, their relative accomplishments will fall.  This listing is different than typical rankings in that you move up from winning big games more than you necessarily move down from losing.  You can easily get passed even if you win out if the teams below you can rack up good wins while you don't.

If Wash St is a very good win then I'm surprised Eastern Washington isn't getting more spice from chiPOTLE

[CHONGS]

Ohio State's win accomplishment is worse than Boise's? 

As of today Ohio State has a win over a good team (Wisconsin) and an above average team (OU), while Boise has a very good win (Wash State) and this gives them a very slight edge.  Boise St is about maxed out though based on their schedule, so moving up is going to be very difficult. As the year progresses, their relative accomplishments will fall.  This listing is different than typical rankings in that you move up from winning big games more than you necessarily move down from losing.  You can easily get passed even if you win out if the teams below you can rack up good wins while you don't.

If Wash St is a very good win then I'm surprised Eastern Washington isn't getting more spice from chiPOTLE

Is Eastern Washington a FBS team?

I can see arguments against it, but ChiPOTLE doesn't really care that much about losses (beyond the extent that they hurt your OE and DE numnbers).  It cares about wins.  Remember, it is a listing sorted by accomplishments.  Teams listed to the top "deserve" to be there based on their statistical numbers and the teams they have beaten.

[DQ12]

I don't like not punishing teams for losses.  If you wanna be a big man and go out and have a tough SOS, great!  What a gamble.  Fortune favors the bold after all.  But if you lose then you should be punished accordingly.  That's the risk involved in scheduling Houston and Ohio State in the OOC, BOB.

If I were a voter, I would have a very mathematical set of rules to sort P5 teams:

1.  Teams with fewer losses are ranked above those with more losses.
2.  Teams with the same number of losses are sorted based on SOS.

And then G5 teams are just put more or less wherever I want based on feel

Easy peasy.

[CHONGS]

In general, this is how ACC is calculated:

Each week  you get a certain amount of points for the quality of each of your wins, and then you total them up.  The team with the largest total here gets assigned a 1, and everyone else's total is divided by this maximum.

For each win over the best teams you get 1
For each win over very good teams you get 1/2
For each win over good teams you get 1/3
For each win over a just better than average team you get 1/4
For each win over an average team you get 1/5
For each win over below average team you get 3/20
For each win over a bad team you get 1/8
For each win over a very bad team you get 1/10
For each win over the worst teams you get 0

As to what bin an opponent fits into, well that's based on a combo of the previous ChiPOTLE and current weeks efficiency numbers.

At this point in time KSU has 1 win over an average team (Tech) and 1 win over a very bad team (FAU), so 0.3 before scaling.  For comparison, Clemson has the highest raw total ACC at about 1.96.

[DQ12]

i find this fascinating, chings.  i wish i was better at spreadsheets.

[Rage Against the McKee]

I don't like not punishing teams for losses.  If you wanna be a big man and go out and have a tough SOS, great!  What a gamble.  Fortune favors the bold after all.  But if you lose then you should be punished accordingly.  That's the risk involved in scheduling Houston and Ohio State in the OOC, BOB.

If I were a voter, I would have a very mathematical set of rules to sort P5 teams:

1.  Teams with fewer losses are ranked above those with more losses.
2.  Teams with the same number of losses are sorted based on SOS.

And then G5 teams are just put more or less wherever I want based on feel

Easy peasy.

I agree with the no punishment for losses criteria, personally. The punishment is losing out on the reward you get from winning, and that is good enough.

[CHONGS]

Updated for 10/24/2016

Top 25


Big 12


Three tiers are getting more clearly defined.  Baylor and West Virginia and the Oklahoma Schools at the top competing for the conference title.  Following that is the mediocre jumble of TCU, Texas, KSU, and Tech.  The bottom drops out with the truly wretched ISU and KU.

KSU Weekly


Slight improvement in OE and DE, but our ability to score points from deep within our own territory is dropping again.  Once again our DS gets worse.  It would be nice if pinning an opponent deep in their own territory didn't result in our defense giving up so many points.

Preview for Farmageddon


Our defense should control this game.  Could be a low scoring affair if our offense can't manage to sustain long drives that end up in points.  There will be holes to exploit for big plays if we can find them.

[wetwillie]

Colorado is good at football again.  That is fun.

[CHONGS]

Updated for 10/31/2016

Top 25


Big 12


KSU Weekly


Preview for the Pokes

[CHONGS]

 

[Pete]

Top of the bottom half of the Big 12.  I'll take it.

[Cartierfor3]

Top of the bottom half of the Big 12.  I'll take it.

Right in that meaty part of the curve. Not showing off, not falling behind.

[mocat]

ChiPOTLE, show me a graph of probabilities for k-state's season win total

*bleep bloop bleep*

= ÷ 2

[CHONGS]

Updated for 11/07/2016

Top 25


Big 12


KSU has the #8 offense in the Big 12 (only KU and ISU are worse)
KSU has the #5 defense in the Big 12

KSU Weekly

[CHONGS]

Projected wins: about 6.5

[CHONGS]

Updated for 11/14/2016

Top 25


Zero Big 12 teams in the top 25 (OSU just barely misses out at 26).  No good OOC wins for the conference is weighing everyone down like a stone.

Big 12


We are back at #7, barely slipping past Tech.   Big 12 has split into 4-sh groups:

The top with Ok State, WVU, and OU
The underachieving middle with  Baylor, TCU, and Texas
The teams that thank God KU and ISU are in this conference: KSU and Tech
The horrid: ISU and KU

It looks like KSU and Tech were each able to pick off one of the underachieving middlers.

KSU Weekly

Slipping back a bit due to essentially beating no one of value.

[MakeItRain]

Do the extreme number of outliers this has when compared to other computer models concern you?

[kso_FAN]

Big 12 only is tiered a bit differently.

OU is the class of the league.

WVU-OSU-TCU is the clear next tier.

UT-BU-KSU

Then Tech-ISU-KU, though Tech is probably closer to the 3rd tier.

Record-wise, only TCU is living outside of where the numbers put them.

[CHONGS]

Do the extreme number of outliers this has when compared to other computer models concern you?

Not really.  I expected this to different from other models.  I "think" I can explain any outliers I have, and they are consistent with the objective criterion I eastablished.

My goal is to only explicitly award for wins and not explicitly punish for losses (this makes it quite different). In this system, strength of schedule doesn't mean crap if you can't beat the good teams you play.  You get accomplishment "rewards" only for wins.  Moral victories and losses don't mean much beyond how they affect the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers.   

This is not really for predictive purposes, just one possible way to objectively order teams where the ranking criteria is based on five factors:
how efficient is your offense , defense, long drive offense, long drive defense, and who have you beat.   

[CHONGS]

Big 12 only is tiered a bit differently.

OU is the class of the league.

WVU-OSU-TCU is the clear next tier.

UT-BU-KSU

Then Tech-ISU-KU, though Tech is probably closer to the 3rd tier.

Record-wise, only TCU is living outside of where the numbers put them.

I am not sure OU is really that much better, at least not from the drive-based stats.  OU's best win is Baylor.

[kso_FAN]

Big 12 only is tiered a bit differently.

OU is the class of the league.

WVU-OSU-TCU is the clear next tier.

UT-BU-KSU

Then Tech-ISU-KU, though Tech is probably closer to the 3rd tier.

Record-wise, only TCU is living outside of where the numbers put them.

I am not sure OU is really that much better, at least not from the drive-based stats.  OU's best win is Baylor.

They do have the 2 toughest opponents other than themselves left, but the only one of the 5 factors they aren't in the Top 2 in the league in is TO margin. That said, OSU isn't that far behind.

Using the 5 factors and scaling from 0 to 10 with league only games I get something like this:
OU   10.0
OSU   9.3
WVU   8.4
TCU   7.9
KSU   7.1
UT   7.1
BU   6.0
ISU   4.1
Tech   3.6
KU   0.0