Author Topic: ChiPOTLE 2016 (Read 8934 times)

CHONGS · « **on:** October 03, 2016, 10:38:26 AM »

Welcome to CHIngon's Polymetric Objective Team Listing Experiment (ChiPOTLE)!

ChiPOTLE is not really a predictor, it is a listing sorted by accomplishments. Teams listed to the top "deserve" to be there based on their statistical numbers and the teams they have beaten.

Now that we are about a month into the season, things are getting clear enough to use ChiPOTLE. Of course we will use OE and DE (points per drive on offense and defense), but boy oh boy are there are a couple of major changes! There are now two more metric used to calculate the expected Win % (WP):

OS: Offensive Stamina --- number of points scored on offense per drive when staring from deep within your own territory
DS: Defensive Stability --- number of points given up by the defense per drive when the opponent is starting from deep withing their own territory

And

Acc: Accomplishments --- on a scale between 0 and 1, how impressive are your wins? There is no credit for simply playing good teams, you must beat the team to get points here. The team with 1 for that week has the best accomplishments.

ChiPOTLE is calculated by taking the WP (based on OE, DE, OS, and DS) and combining that with Acc.

The Top 25:

The Big 12

Sadly KSU's offensive woes are quite clear (even more so on long drives), but in better news the defense looks pretty good.

KSU is a "better" team on paper vs Tech, but win no real accomplishments on our side we are ranked slightly lower.

Sandstone Outcropping · « **Reply #1 on:** October 03, 2016, 10:42:38 AM »

This leads me to ask the questions: What is the difference between average and mediocre? If a team is above-average, are they no longer mediocre?

CHONGS · « **Reply #2 on:** October 03, 2016, 10:46:35 AM »

And if you were wondering what team is sparing KU the 128th spot...it's Arkansas State and just barely.

bubbles4ksu · « **Reply #3 on:** October 03, 2016, 09:33:31 PM »

new acronym, same anti-kstate bullshit.

bubbles4ksu · « **Reply #4 on:** October 03, 2016, 09:41:01 PM »

nebraska at #10 and tennessee at #5 are not right

i really like the stamina and stability measurements.

wetwillie · « **Reply #5 on:** October 03, 2016, 09:49:27 PM »

If KSU played TTU what would chiPOTLE say the outcome would be?

Tobias · « **Reply #6 on:** October 03, 2016, 10:10:29 PM »

Quote from: wetwillie on October 03, 2016, 09:49:27 PM

If KSU played TTU what would chiPOTLE say the outcome would be?

tuberville factor would favor tech

Cartierfor3 · « **Reply #7 on:** October 03, 2016, 10:30:52 PM »

Add a side of guac

MadCat · « **Reply #8 on:** October 03, 2016, 11:47:30 PM »

(It's not a predictor)

DQ12 · « **Reply #9 on:** October 04, 2016, 09:25:28 AM »

oh I like this

CHONGS · « **Reply #10 on:** October 11, 2016, 09:07:50 AM »

Rather than create a new thread, I will just bump this one with updates:

Top 25 for Week of Oct 10

Big 12

pissclams · « **Reply #11 on:** October 11, 2016, 09:11:53 AM »

in another thread there are a lot of posters who are saying that #56 is going to beat #16 this weekend

DQ12 · « **Reply #12 on:** October 11, 2016, 10:51:12 AM »

interesting. you would expect the DS number to be lower than the DE, but k-state's is significantly higher.

what gives? statistical anomaly for the cats?

CHONGS · « **Reply #13 on:** October 11, 2016, 11:31:39 AM »

Quote from: Dlew12 on October 11, 2016, 10:51:12 AM

interesting. you would expect the DS number to be lower than the DE, but k-state's is significantly higher.

what gives? statistical anomaly for the cats?

Maybe, it could simply be a lack of drives for the other team that start deep in their territory. I don't recall us pinning teams deep all that often.
It could also be a sign that the defense is susceptible to grinding offenses and just wear down at the end of a long drive.

DQ12 · « **Reply #14 on:** October 11, 2016, 03:14:47 PM »

I have another question regarding the "accomplishments" column.

Saturday was our best win of the season by, I would imagine, a large margin, yet our accomplishment number only increased by .02. Why is that? Is it relative to others' accomplishments, like some sort of percentile rank?

Thanks and i'll listen off the air.

CHONGS · « **Reply #15 on:** October 11, 2016, 04:49:40 PM »

Quote from: Dlew12 on October 11, 2016, 03:14:47 PM

I have another question regarding the "accomplishments" column.

Saturday was our best win of the season by, I would imagine, a large margin, yet our accomplishment number only increased by .02. Why is that? Is it relative to others' accomplishments, like some sort of percentile rank?

Thanks and i'll listen off the air.

Actually you might be looking at the wrong number, we went from 0.08 to 0.19, so an increase of 0.11.

Yes, it's relative and compared to all other teams. It will change from week to week depending on how your opponents did.

Our small increase is due to the fact that everyone else is playing conference foes now too, and Tech, relative to other conference teams is not much more than average.

If we keep winning we will climb, but the relative weakness of the B12 is going to hurt us. No real chances for a win over an elite team (maybe Baylor can be).

CHONGS · « **Reply #16 on:** October 11, 2016, 05:10:24 PM »

KSU Wildcats Week to Week

Cire · « **Reply #17 on:** October 11, 2016, 06:36:16 PM »

Tennessee?

G
M
A
F
B

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

wetwillie · « **Reply #18 on:** October 11, 2016, 07:14:34 PM »

Took about two weeks for this thing to become a joke.

DQ12 · « **Reply #19 on:** October 11, 2016, 07:22:00 PM »

yep! i was looking at the wrong number!

Pete · « **Reply #20 on:** October 11, 2016, 08:49:00 PM »

Why does he always pick us to be so low?

CHONGS · « **Reply #21 on:** October 18, 2016, 09:25:30 AM »

Oh boy, you guys are not going to be happy with the recent iteration of ChiPOTLE:

Top 25

Big 12

KSU Weekly

Looking like a .500 team, but were essentially smack dab in a pack of mediocrity with Texas, Tech, and Oklahoma St. Could be 5-7 and could also end up 7-5.

catastrophe · « **Reply #22 on:** October 18, 2016, 09:40:27 AM »

"In the middle of mediocrity" sums up this year's team pretty well so far I think. Texas is a must win, then we just have to win two out of Baylor, TCU, and OSU for me to feel good about the season.

DQ12 · « **Reply #23 on:** October 18, 2016, 09:45:15 AM »

Ohio State's win accomplishment is worse than Boise's?

Skipper44 · « **Reply #24 on:** October 18, 2016, 09:50:19 AM »

The schedule actually sets up perfectly for 7-5