Author Topic: The Trump Candidacy  (Read 430020 times)

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Offline Cartierfor3

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Re: The Trump Candidacy
« Reply #5250 on: October 25, 2016, 11:38:38 AM »
lying about being a trump supporter was his whole premise re:polls so there you go.

Offline Dugout DickStone

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Re: The Trump Candidacy
« Reply #5251 on: October 25, 2016, 11:43:52 AM »
lying about being a trump supporter was his whole premise re:polls so there you go.

his premise is that lots of people are embarrassed to be Trump supporters (like he is) but will vote for trump?

Offline Cartierfor3

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Re: The Trump Candidacy
« Reply #5252 on: October 25, 2016, 11:45:52 AM »
lying about being a trump supporter was his whole premise re:polls so there you go.

his premise is that lots of people are embarrassed to be Trump supporters (like he is) but will vote for trump?

yeah. like in polls where you don't say your name I guess he's winning by like a million.

Offline catastrophe

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Re: The Trump Candidacy
« Reply #5253 on: October 25, 2016, 11:51:38 AM »
The old "silent majority" argument. It's believable, but the thing about polls without identifying information is there's no way to tell whether you're taking a representative sample.

Offline catastrophe

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Re: The Trump Candidacy
« Reply #5254 on: October 25, 2016, 11:52:59 AM »
Would be funny (in a tragic way) if exit polls on Election Day showed Hillary winning in a landslide but more votes actually counted for Trump.

Offline Dugout DickStone

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Re: The Trump Candidacy
« Reply #5255 on: October 25, 2016, 12:05:33 PM »
Would be funny (in a tragic way) if exit polls on Election Day showed Hillary winning in a landslide but more votes actually counted for Trump.

would be funny way as there is no way that happened

Offline treysolid

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Re: The Trump Candidacy
« Reply #5256 on: October 25, 2016, 01:04:16 PM »
I had dinner last night with a person who is not only convinced Trump will win, but that it will be a landslide.

you had dinner with @mitchellvii ?

Offline stunted

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Re: The Trump Candidacy
« Reply #5257 on: October 25, 2016, 01:18:20 PM »
Remember Brexit

Offline steve dave

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Re: The Trump Candidacy
« Reply #5258 on: October 25, 2016, 01:20:41 PM »
Remember Brexit

yep, exactly. then the next morning everyone was like, "I voted for it but I didn't think it would actually pass!" this is a conceivable thing that could happen. though the brexit polling was showing a neck and neck when the vote happened v. the big gap we have now.

Offline CNS

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Re: The Trump Candidacy
« Reply #5259 on: October 25, 2016, 01:32:34 PM »
I thought the brexit claim is that so many ppl thought it wouldn't pass that a bunch just didnt' bother to vote since it was going to be a landslide against anyway.   :dunno:

Offline steve dave

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Re: The Trump Candidacy
« Reply #5260 on: October 25, 2016, 01:53:10 PM »
I thought the brexit claim is that so many ppl thought it wouldn't pass that a bunch just didnt' bother to vote since it was going to be a landslide against anyway.   :dunno:

both, and both could take place here

Online chum1

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Re: The Trump Candidacy
« Reply #5261 on: October 25, 2016, 02:10:23 PM »
I appreciate that Trump is reminding people of Brexit since it is essentially reminding them to vote against Trump.

Offline Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)

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Re: The Trump Candidacy
« Reply #5262 on: October 25, 2016, 02:16:14 PM »
I thought the brexit claim is that so many ppl thought it wouldn't pass that a bunch just didnt' bother to vote since it was going to be a landslide against anyway.   :dunno:

both, and both could take place here

So 2 days of panic followed by months of BFD that was silly to get worried about?
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Offline Panjandrum

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Re: The Trump Candidacy
« Reply #5263 on: October 25, 2016, 02:28:14 PM »
I thought the brexit claim is that so many ppl thought it wouldn't pass that a bunch just didnt' bother to vote since it was going to be a landslide against anyway.   :dunno:

both, and both could take place here

I would agree, but absentee and early voting numbers are up all over the place, so I'm guessing that it may go the other way with increased voter turnout.

Offline Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)

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Re: The Trump Candidacy
« Reply #5264 on: October 25, 2016, 02:58:53 PM »
What continent(s) will stop trading with the u.s. upon Trumpident????  Will the dollar become worth less than the peso upon Trumptatorship?????

These are the questions that plague humanity.
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Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: The Trump Candidacy
« Reply #5265 on: October 25, 2016, 03:04:48 PM »
What continent(s) will stop trading with the u.s. upon Trumpident????  Will the dollar become worth less than the peso upon Trumptatorship?????

These are the questions that plague humanity.

Well, Trump has made restricting trade between Canada and Mexico part of his platform, so I'd start there.

Offline CNS

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Re: The Trump Candidacy
« Reply #5266 on: October 25, 2016, 03:22:04 PM »
He stated two debates ago that he wants to jack up tariffs super high.  Seems like the natural response to that would be equal tariff hikes on our goods.  So, I guess, everyone to a certain extent.   :dunno:

Offline Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)

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Re: The Trump Candidacy
« Reply #5267 on: October 25, 2016, 04:14:33 PM »
What continent(s) will stop trading with the u.s. upon Trumpident????  Will the dollar become worth less than the peso upon Trumptatorship?????

These are the questions that plague humanity.

Well, Trump has made restricting trade between Canada and Mexico part of his platform, so I'd start there.

That's what you got out of "way better deals"????

Nobody is going to stop trading with the u.s.  We lead the world in consumption of cheap goods.
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Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: The Trump Candidacy
« Reply #5268 on: October 25, 2016, 04:18:04 PM »
What continent(s) will stop trading with the u.s. upon Trumpident????  Will the dollar become worth less than the peso upon Trumptatorship?????

These are the questions that plague humanity.

Well, Trump has made restricting trade between Canada and Mexico part of his platform, so I'd start there.

That's what you got out of "way better deals"????

Nobody is going to stop trading with the u.s.  We lead the world in consumption of cheap goods.

I have no idea what Trump means by "better" or if he has any sort of ability to negotiate the deal he wants, but he is very anti-free trade, so I'm assuming that his idea of better is something far more restrictive than what we currently have with NAFTA.

Offline CNS

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Re: The Trump Candidacy
« Reply #5269 on: October 25, 2016, 04:28:36 PM »
One of the economists from Planet Money did an interview on This American Life this week and broke down trade decently.  From what he said, there is no trade deal that will give us more than what another country gains from trade.  Purely based on the fact that we are doing so well and most of the countries that we would trade with, for cheap labor reasons, are not doing well.  We both gain, but they much more than us.  If the requirement of a "good deal" would be to reverse that, it probably isn't possible given quality of life differential between us and any country we are doing large quantity of trade with.

Also, he had a good piece on NAFTA.  He noted that a total of 700,000 jobs were lost over 15 yrs and that we are adding just under 200k/month this year alone.  He also noted that Uni of Chicago polled a bunch of economists and 95% of them said that NAFTA has benefited the US and 5% said they weren't sure.  None said it was negative. 

Offline sys

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Re: The Trump Candidacy
« Reply #5270 on: October 25, 2016, 05:34:50 PM »
What continent(s) will stop trading with the u.s. upon Trumpident????  Will the dollar become worth less than the peso upon Trumptatorship?????

the pound has fallen by like 20% since brexit and none of the trade changes will kick in for another couple years.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)

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Re: The Trump Candidacy
« Reply #5271 on: October 25, 2016, 05:47:25 PM »
What continent(s) will stop trading with the u.s. upon Trumpident????  Will the dollar become worth less than the peso upon Trumptatorship?????

the pound has fallen by like 20% since brexit and none of the trade changes will kick in for another couple years.

You would hate our Fed
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Offline sys

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Re: The Trump Candidacy
« Reply #5272 on: October 25, 2016, 05:48:18 PM »
i adore our fed.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)

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Re: The Trump Candidacy
« Reply #5273 on: October 25, 2016, 05:50:49 PM »

Also, he had a good piece on NAFTA.  He noted that a total of 700,000 jobs were lost over 15 yrs and that we are adding just under 200k/month this year alone. 

This point is asinine and inaccurate, so I will assume the rest was equally illogical and unfounded.
« Last Edit: October 25, 2016, 06:13:21 PM by Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) »
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Offline Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)

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Re: The Trump Candidacy
« Reply #5274 on: October 25, 2016, 05:52:59 PM »
i adore our fed.

The devalueing the currency part, too?
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