Give me Schiano in that scenario. They have similar head coaching resumes, and they had similar jobs at the same time. I do think USF is an easier place to win with the built in recruiting base and the easier admissions. Probably not better enough to matter very much though.
I give Schiano the advantage because of his NFL ties and the fact that he's worked under Urban Meyer and Bill Belichick. He's also younger.
They even have similar warts. The biggest difference is that Schiano has never been accused for choking a kid. All of his issues occurred in the NFL and it sounds like he was doing that bullshit that college coaches but he did them with pros, which obviously doesn't work with men with leverage.