Author Topic: Chisholm victory?  (Read 3362 times)

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Offline kso_FAN

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Chisholm victory?
« on: October 18, 2016, 03:27:16 PM »
The match-up according to those Big 12 stats I posted yesterday.



YPP = yards per play
PPP = points per play
PPD = points per drive
PPD<40 = points per drive inside the opponent's 40 yardline
AFP = average starting field position
Succ% = Offensive success percentage (Success = 50% of the yards to gain on first, 70% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd/4th down)
TO Margin = Turnover margin per game

KSU games = @WVU, Tech, @OU
UT games = @OSU, OU, ISU

The match up is even on paper.
We've played a slightly tougher schedule.
We are at home.

Cats 38 - Horns 30


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Offline cfbandyman

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Re: Chisholm victory?
« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2016, 03:38:04 PM »
I think we got this, probably will follow a similar script to the TT game, fairly close and shootout at HT, after half we clamp down on D and pull out a close victory.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2016, 03:53:44 PM by cfbandyman »
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Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Chisholm victory?
« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2016, 03:40:22 PM »
Maybe our defense won't bother to read Robinett's garbage this week and we come out strong in the first half.

Offline CHONGS

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Re: Chisholm victory?
« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2016, 03:40:53 PM »
maybe something else to look at:


I fear Texas successfully grinding out long (in terms of yardage not time) drives against our defense and our offense stalling on long drives. We will likely need at least one non-offensive TD to win.

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: Chisholm victory?
« Reply #4 on: October 18, 2016, 03:48:20 PM »
maybe something else to look at:


I fear Texas successfully grinding out long (in terms of yardage not time) drives against our defense and our offense stalling on long drives. We will likely need at least one non-offensive TD to win.

Their offense is scarier than Tech's because they can run and because their defense is not as garbage as tech's.  They aren't as good as WVU, but this game might play out similarly.


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Offline CNS

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Re: Chisholm victory?
« Reply #5 on: October 18, 2016, 04:09:14 PM »
Vegas should offer a 3pt advantage due to home field, and another 7pt advantage because KSU, when it comes to this game.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Chisholm victory?
« Reply #6 on: October 18, 2016, 05:41:35 PM »
maybe something else to look at:


I fear Texas successfully grinding out long (in terms of yardage not time) drives against our defense and our offense stalling on long drives. We will likely need at least one non-offensive TD to win.

Their offense is scarier than Tech's because they can run and because their defense is not as garbage as tech's.  They aren't as good as WVU, but this game might play out similarly.


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I think their ability/willingness to run makes them a better matchup for us. I also think the type of running attack they have also helps us. They don't do as much to get Forman in space as OU does with their backs. Texas will make this a battle of fronts and we have a very good front. UT has been tested on the road plenty so Buechele should be fine on that account but this will be the first good defense he'll see on the road. I think we jump out early, for once and keep UT at arms length. 31-21

Offline kim carnes

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Re: Chisholm victory?
« Reply #7 on: October 18, 2016, 07:49:50 PM »
It's going to be hard to root for us in this one

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Re: Chisholm victory?
« Reply #8 on: October 18, 2016, 09:30:42 PM »
maybe something else to look at:


I fear Texas successfully grinding out long (in terms of yardage not time) drives against our defense and our offense stalling on long drives. We will likely need at least one non-offensive TD to win.

Their offense is scarier than Tech's because they can run and because their defense is not as garbage as tech's.  They aren't as good as WVU, but this game might play out similarly.


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I think their ability/willingness to run makes them a better matchup for us. I also think the type of running attack they have also helps us. They don't do as much to get Forman in space as OU does with their backs. Texas will make this a battle of fronts and we have a very good front. UT has been tested on the road plenty so Buechele should be fine on that account but this will be the first good defense he'll see on the road. I think we jump out early, for once and keep UT at arms length. 31-21

This. We're solid against a run heavy offense, and their frosh qb isnt capable of carrying them. Their defense is white hot garbage. We'll win by 17.
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Offline kim carnes

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Re: Chisholm victory?
« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2016, 09:48:48 PM »
Guys, we aren't good at defense.  Stop saying that we are.

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Chisholm victory?
« Reply #10 on: October 19, 2016, 08:13:05 AM »
bcftoys.com says Cats 32-Horns 26 with a .665 chance of winning.

Also projected to finish 7-5 or 6-6. Very likely wins over ISU and KU and a toss up vs OSU slightly in our favor.

http://www.bcftoys.com/2016-game-projections/

Offline PurpleOil

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Re: Chisholm victory?
« Reply #11 on: October 19, 2016, 08:40:12 AM »
I can see this game going either way. I'd like to believe my cats will pull out the W but I can see us making costly mistakes and poor play calling like against WVU as well.

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Chisholm victory?
« Reply #12 on: October 19, 2016, 08:45:44 AM »
I can see us making costly mistakes and poor play calling like against WVU as well.

I think if we play a similar game against WVU at home we win. Plus Texas isn't nearly as good as WVU.

Offline Bqqkie Pimp

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Re: Chisholm victory?
« Reply #13 on: October 19, 2016, 08:53:48 AM »
Two more factors in our favor...

1) Homecoming

2) "Cold" weather

It should be about 55 degrees when the teams come out for warmups and to Texans, that is "cold".   

I crap you not, I went to a HS game last week that was 64 degrees at kickoff and people were bundled up and complaining like it was last years Iowa State game weather.

:lol:
bears are fast...

Offline Emo EMAW

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Re: Chisholm victory?
« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2016, 10:23:40 AM »
Guys hate to say it but Mack Brown isn't running out of that tunnel.

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Chisholm victory?
« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2016, 10:29:55 AM »
Guys hate to say it but Mack Brown isn't running out of that tunnel.

True, the dominant Charlie Strong is now running things (with his .451 winning percentage while in Austin).

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Chisholm victory?
« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2016, 10:34:56 AM »

Offline Sandstone Outcropping

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Re: Chisholm victory?
« Reply #17 on: October 19, 2016, 11:31:04 AM »
 :cheese:

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Chisholm victory?
« Reply #18 on: October 19, 2016, 11:43:20 AM »
Here is Mack's "bad" stretch at Texas his last 4 years:

2010   Texas   5–7   2–6   6th (South)         
2011   Texas   8–5   4–5   T–6th   W Holiday      
2012   Texas   9–4   5–4   T–3rd   W Alamo   18   19
2013   Texas   8–5   7–2   T–2nd   L Alamo

Here is Charlie Strong:

2014   Texas   6–7   5–4   T–4th   L Texas      
2015   Texas   5–7   4–5   T–5th         
2016   Texas   3–3   1–2

Offline Emo EMAW

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Re: Chisholm victory?
« Reply #19 on: October 19, 2016, 11:48:01 AM »

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: Chisholm victory?
« Reply #20 on: October 19, 2016, 12:34:07 PM »
Oh, we'll have success in one facet of the game on offense, and then blam . . . SYSTEM OVERRIDE kicks in and demands balance in the calling of plays to indicate balance, because the SYSTEM demands balance.

I also foresee a lot of Insta-Mono, like DM rips off a nice run, and then heads to the sideline with Insta-Mono.


 

Offline Katpappy

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Re: Chisholm victory?
« Reply #21 on: October 19, 2016, 12:45:49 PM »
It's going to be hard to root for us in this one
Birds of a feather all fly in the same direction.
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Offline Dugout DickStone

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Re: Chisholm victory?
« Reply #22 on: October 19, 2016, 12:52:29 PM »
Oh, we'll have success in one facet of the game on offense, and then blam . . . SYSTEM OVERRIDE kicks in and demands balance in the calling of plays to indicate balance, because the SYSTEM demands balance.

I also foresee a lot of Insta-Mono, like DM rips off a nice run, and then heads to the sideline with Insta-Mono.

There will be several moments where it will appear we are throwing the game like the time we actually did throw the game for Mack.

Offline Prince McJunkins

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Re: Chisholm victory?
« Reply #23 on: October 19, 2016, 01:17:52 PM »
bcftoys.com says Cats 32-Horns 26 with a .665 chance of winning.

Also projected to finish 7-5 or 6-6. Very likely wins over ISU and KU and a toss up vs OSU slightly in our favor.

http://www.bcftoys.com/2016-game-projections/

I think we'll lose to ISU.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Chisholm victory?
« Reply #24 on: October 22, 2016, 04:06:17 PM »
maybe something else to look at:


I fear Texas successfully grinding out long (in terms of yardage not time) drives against our defense and our offense stalling on long drives. We will likely need at least one non-offensive TD to win.

Their offense is scarier than Tech's because they can run and because their defense is not as garbage as tech's.  They aren't as good as WVU, but this game might play out similarly.


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I think their ability/willingness to run makes them a better matchup for us. I also think the type of running attack they have also helps us. They don't do as much to get Forman in space as OU does with their backs. Texas will make this a battle of fronts and we have a very good front. UT has been tested on the road plenty so Buechele should be fine on that account but this will be the first good defense he'll see on the road. I think we jump out early, for once and keep UT at arms length. 31-21

Damn you Charles Jones