Its tough to finish around 30 in a P5 conference, but possible. Florida and Baylor have actually done it multiple times the last several years. Iowa did it a couple years ago too. You pretty much have to have no bad losses and 4 or fewer top 50 wins with 1 or fewer top 25 wins. If oscar manages .500 in the league this year, he will probably have 5 top wins minimum.
Its pretty amazing to look back at the number of top 20 wins the 15 team had (5) and not make the tournament, but that team also had 5 bad losses and 3 really bad losses.