Author Topic: "Strength of Schedule"  (Read 5508 times)

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Offline CHONGS

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"Strength of Schedule"
« on: July 30, 2014, 03:27:42 PM »
One of the things that gets mentioned when regarding "strength of schedule" is the combined opponents record.  For example in 2012 our FBS opponents went a combined 87-66 (~ 57%), but 10 of those combined losses were due to losing to KSU (which seems silly to include when determining SOS).  On the flip side you can imagine a team having a poor year (let's say 1-11 against FBS teams) and their opponents went a combined 94-60; this will inflate the SOS because 11 of those combined wins are due to playing the shitty team.

Back to 2012, if you remove the games against KSU in the opponents combined W/L record then it becomes: 87-66 (~61%) which I think is a more reasonable reflection of who KSU played.   Applying this back to 1996 (I just picked when the Big 12 started) you get:



What I though was interesting was that the SOS was pretty consistent.  For example, the 2004 disaster was not really a product of playing especially good teams, but just being a pile of poop.  I then though you could imagine a "quality win %" which was the average of your win % with the adjusted opp win %.   For example, in an extreme case if a team went 12-0 and its opponents went a combined 132-0 (remember we removed the loss due to playing the awesome team) its "quality win %" would be 100%  If a team when 12-0, but the teams it played when a combined 0-132 its q win % would be 50%.   For KSU the q win % would be:



It goes to show how consistently "average" KSU was between 2004 and 2010 and how good it was between 1996 and 2003 (with the exception of 2001 season that in retrospect was still better than any year between 2004 and 2010).

Now the next natural thing to do is extend this to other Big 12 teams.  I will post the bar charts in a separate reply, but below is three plots with big12 (and former as well) teams:



It looks like the best teams were 1997 Nubb, 2000 OU, and 2005 UT (man that team was great).


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Offline Cartierfor3

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Re: "Strength of Schedule"
« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2014, 03:33:47 PM »
Does this guy know how to party or what?

Offline Pete

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Re: "Strength of Schedule"
« Reply #2 on: July 30, 2014, 03:42:24 PM »

Does this guy know how to party or what?

He's pretty great

Offline TownieCat

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Re: "Strength of Schedule"
« Reply #3 on: July 30, 2014, 03:43:18 PM »
Since the Big 12 is a true round robin conference now, the only games that really affect any league team's SOS are the 30 non-cons. The rest of the league will go .500 against themselves no matter what.

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: "Strength of Schedule"
« Reply #4 on: July 30, 2014, 03:46:29 PM »
A productive Chin post.    :thumbsup:

Offline 'taterblast

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Re: "Strength of Schedule"
« Reply #5 on: July 30, 2014, 03:46:49 PM »
Since the Big 12 is a true round robin conference now, the only games that really affect any league team's SOS are the 30 non-cons. The rest of the league will go .500 against themselves no matter what.

not if you take out your games vs them.

Online WildcatNkilt

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Re: "Strength of Schedule"
« Reply #6 on: July 30, 2014, 03:47:46 PM »
I really enjoyed reading this.   :thumbs:
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Offline TownieCat

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Re: "Strength of Schedule"
« Reply #7 on: July 30, 2014, 03:51:54 PM »
Since the Big 12 is a true round robin conference now, the only games that really affect any league team's SOS are the 30 non-cons. The rest of the league will go .500 against themselves no matter what.

not if you take out your games vs them.

Every game has a winner and a loser... Essentially the Big 12 goes 1-1 in every conference game.

Offline CHONGS

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Re: "Strength of Schedule"
« Reply #8 on: July 30, 2014, 03:59:57 PM »







Online michigancat

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Re: "Strength of Schedule"
« Reply #9 on: July 30, 2014, 04:02:27 PM »
Honestly surprised how tough our 98 schedule was.

Offline CHONGS

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Re: "Strength of Schedule"
« Reply #10 on: July 30, 2014, 04:07:42 PM »
Since the Big 12 is a true round robin conference now, the only games that really affect any league team's SOS are the 30 non-cons. The rest of the league will go .500 against themselves no matter what.

not if you take out your games vs them.

Every game has a winner and a loser... Essentially the Big 12 goes 1-1 in every conference game.
This is correct, I first thought about this when wanting to compare "sensibly" to pre-round robin. With a round-robin the adj opp WL record for conference games will always be 36-36.

Offline 'taterblast

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Re: "Strength of Schedule"
« Reply #11 on: July 30, 2014, 04:11:17 PM »
well in 2012 big 12 teams that weren't playing against k-state went 44-37. where it gets weird is that record includes k-state's record against non k-state teams.

big 12 teams that played k-state went 1-8. :gocho:

Offline CHONGS

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Re: "Strength of Schedule"
« Reply #12 on: July 30, 2014, 04:17:46 PM »
Honestly surprised how tough our 98 schedule was.
Here is a table:
KSU Opp Win %
2001    0.65
2011    0.64
2003    0.63
2007    0.62
2004    0.62
1996    0.62
2012    0.61
2006    0.59
2000    0.59
2010    0.58
2009    0.58
2005    0.58
1998    0.57
2013    0.56
2008    0.56
2002    0.56
1997    0.55
1999    0.5

Offline CHONGS

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Re: "Strength of Schedule"
« Reply #13 on: July 30, 2014, 04:20:43 PM »
To contrast, here is:
 KU opp win %
2011    0.69
2012    0.67
2001    0.66
2000    0.66
2008    0.65
2005    0.65
2004    0.64
1996    0.62
2013    0.61
2010    0.6
2009    0.6
1998    0.58
1999    0.57
1997    0.55
2003    0.54
2002    0.54
2006    0.53
2007    0.52


Offline DQ12

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Re: "Strength of Schedule"
« Reply #14 on: July 30, 2014, 04:31:16 PM »
wow i remember in 2011 before the season started i said on this bbs that it was going to be about the hardest schedule we'd ever faced!


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Offline cfbandyman

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Re: "Strength of Schedule"
« Reply #15 on: July 30, 2014, 04:38:32 PM »
wow i remember in 2011 before the season started i said on this bbs that it was going to be about the hardest schedule we'd ever faced!

I was about to say dat 2011  :sdeek:
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Offline CHONGS

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Re: "Strength of Schedule"
« Reply #16 on: July 30, 2014, 04:40:37 PM »
Its amazing how bad that 2002 KU team was. The only FBS team they beat was a 1-11 Tulsa team.

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: "Strength of Schedule"
« Reply #17 on: July 30, 2014, 04:43:12 PM »
It would be interesting to see how many games Coach Weis could win if KU could have another schedule like they had in 2007.

Offline mocat

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Re: "Strength of Schedule"
« Reply #18 on: July 30, 2014, 04:52:00 PM »
Gary Pinkel is a huge stud

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: "Strength of Schedule"
« Reply #19 on: July 30, 2014, 04:53:25 PM »
Gary Pinkel is a huge stud

There is no consistency under him, though.

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Re: "Strength of Schedule"
« Reply #20 on: July 30, 2014, 04:58:12 PM »
Am I reading the graphs wrong....or is it basically saying whether you win or lose is determined by how good or shitty you are, not how good or shitty your opp is? 

Offline CHONGS

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Re: "Strength of Schedule"
« Reply #21 on: July 30, 2014, 05:05:00 PM »
KSU and Auburn

Offline CHONGS

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Re: "Strength of Schedule"
« Reply #22 on: July 30, 2014, 05:08:14 PM »
Am I reading the graphs wrong....or is it basically saying whether you win or lose is determined by how good or shitty you are, not how good or shitty your opp is? 
Fo KSU, for the most part I would say that's true.  Some teams (like KU) tend to show a bit more correlation between opp win % and their own.

Online wetwillie

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Re: "Strength of Schedule"
« Reply #23 on: July 30, 2014, 06:40:23 PM »
To contrast, here is:
 KU opp win %
<table class="table"><tbody><tr><td>2011</td><td>    </td><td>0.69</td></tr><tr><td>2012</td><td>    </td><td>0.67</td></tr><tr><td>2001</td><td>    </td><td>0.66</td></tr><tr><td>2000</td><td>    </td><td>0.66</td></tr><tr><td>2008</td><td>    </td><td>0.65</td></tr><tr><td>2005</td><td>    </td><td>0.65</td></tr><tr><td>2004</td><td>    </td><td>0.64</td></tr><tr><td>1996</td><td>    </td><td>0.62</td></tr><tr><td>2013</td><td>    </td><td>0.61</td></tr><tr><td>2010</td><td>    </td><td>0.6</td></tr><tr><td>2009</td><td>    </td><td>0.6</td></tr><tr><td>1998</td><td>    </td><td>0.58</td></tr><tr><td>1999</td><td>    </td><td>0.57</td></tr><tr><td>1997</td><td>    </td><td>0.55</td></tr><tr><td>2003</td><td>    </td><td>0.54</td></tr><tr><td>2002</td><td>    </td><td>0.54</td></tr><tr><td>2006</td><td>    </td><td>0.53</td></tr><tr><td>2007</td><td>    </td><td>0.52</td></tr></tbody></table>



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Offline Bqqkie Pimp

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Re: "Strength of Schedule"
« Reply #24 on: July 30, 2014, 07:27:23 PM »
KSU and Auburn


By the looks of this graph, I'd say Auburn is mumped come Sept. 18.

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