Author Topic: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread  (Read 2379 times)

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Offline The Big Train

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #25 on: October 22, 2017, 07:13:41 PM »
I’m rewatching this game _FAN and Barnes had 100+ yards in the first 3:30.  He had a 20 yard run at 11:30, Silmon had ~2 runs and dimel had a few.  Other than that Delton ran it every time.  Granted he had 138 rush yards which is the most in a half by a QB since 2007.

I’m at 12 min left in the game and Barnes still hasn’t touched the ball again.  If you’re a RB why would you ever come to KSU?  End of the first half we fell in love with this QB run bs(it worked with Klein and dimel still thinks we have Klein).  I just don’t get our offensive strategy.  We make no adjustments at all.  It’s almost like we have great success with RB’s but that’s outside of the “game plan” so we move back to the plan and never change.  If I’m an OC and something is working outside the game plan, I keep rough ridin' using it until it doesn’t work anymore.  Then go to the game plan and if that doesn’t work go back to what worked. 

It’s just so frustrating how we can’t adapt.  If something’s working why leave?  Just because you didn’t plan to do it.  I feel like we get so laser focused on the game plan we can’t deviate from it when some blatantly obvious is working. 
KU football is a sleeping giant and always has been - beems

If LHC Bill Snyder had been hired at KU years ago, we'd have a national championship in football and a couple more BCS bowls. - beems

Offline ksu_FAN

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #26 on: October 30, 2017, 08:14:10 AM »
Cats vs Tech looks like a coin flip. Might come down to TOs.




Offline ksu_FAN

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #27 on: October 30, 2017, 09:17:58 AM »
So yeah, sometimes numbers are weird.


Offline cfbandyman

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #28 on: October 30, 2017, 10:02:21 AM »
Despite our offense looking like garbage those numbers seems to imply we are good at moving the ball, just not good at scoring.

Defense isn't great but for a Snyder 2.0 it ranks favorably.
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Offline ksu_FAN

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #29 on: October 30, 2017, 10:20:03 AM »
Despite our offense looking like garbage those numbers seems to imply we are good at moving the ball, just not good at scoring.

Defense isn't great but for a Snyder 2.0 it ranks favorably.

Those scoring numbers don't include special teams (FGs/returns) or defense (returns). K-State has 73 points scored by Reed/Adams returns and McCrane FGs, over 28% of our points for the year.

Also, our biggest drop from last year is in points per drive inside the 40. Last year in Big 12 play we scored 5.29 PPD<40 and allowed 4.49 PPD<40 for a +.80 differntial, 2nd in the Big 12. This year we are only at 4.09 while allowing 4.05, for a differential of just +.04, 7th in the league. We've also gone from best in the league at forcing TOs (+.78 per game) to 4th (+.40 per game). The difference between winning and losing isn't a lot and those numbers are pretty telling.

Offline cfbandyman

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #30 on: October 30, 2017, 11:25:29 AM »
Despite our offense looking like garbage those numbers seems to imply we are good at moving the ball, just not good at scoring.

Defense isn't great but for a Snyder 2.0 it ranks favorably.

Those scoring numbers don't include special teams (FGs/returns) or defense (returns). K-State has 73 points scored by Reed/Adams returns and McCrane FGs, over 28% of our points for the year.

Also, our biggest drop from last year is in points per drive inside the 40. Last year in Big 12 play we scored 5.29 PPD<40 and allowed 4.49 PPD<40 for a +.80 differntial, 2nd in the Big 12. This year we are only at 4.09 while allowing 4.05, for a differential of just +.04, 7th in the league. We've also gone from best in the league at forcing TOs (+.78 per game) to 4th (+.40 per game). The difference between winning and losing isn't a lot and those numbers are pretty telling.

I guess that what what I was getting at with us moving the ball and not scoring. We settle for way more FGs than get TDs this year, and I can think of 3 drives in the last 3 games (2 against TCU, 1 against KU) off the top of my head where we were inside the 20 and we either TO on downs or sack strip fumble. Those plays for sure have hurt those aforementioned number drops. I  just wonder if those became TDs how much that would affect the PPD<40. Prolly enough to make it respectable.
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Offline ksu_FAN

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #31 on: November 03, 2017, 10:18:20 AM »
K-State has weird ratings this year in footballoutsiders.com metrics.

#58 in both with special teams at 5 and 6, but S&P has the offense at 44 and defense at 75 while FEI has offense at 89 and defense at 48. I can't remember ever seeing that big of a difference between the two in the 4-5 years I've followed them.

Offline mocat

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #32 on: November 03, 2017, 11:10:05 AM »
you don't count FG's as offensive points?

Offline ksu_FAN

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #33 on: November 03, 2017, 11:16:00 AM »
you don't count FG's as offensive points?

For those Snyder points per play stats, no. I use sports reference data and only include rushing TDs and passing TDs to get numbers for points per play for both offense and defense.

Offline Clevey No Mo

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #34 on: November 03, 2017, 11:45:45 AM »
K-State has weird ratings this year in footballoutsiders.com metrics.

#58 in both with special teams at 5 and 6, but S&P has the offense at 44 and defense at 75 while FEI has offense at 89 and defense at 48. I can't remember ever seeing that big of a difference between the two in the 4-5 years I've followed them.

What's the difference in these metrics that would be giving such wildly different views on our O and D?

Offline ksu_FAN

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #35 on: November 03, 2017, 11:52:48 AM »
K-State has weird ratings this year in footballoutsiders.com metrics.

#58 in both with special teams at 5 and 6, but S&P has the offense at 44 and defense at 75 while FEI has offense at 89 and defense at 48. I can't remember ever seeing that big of a difference between the two in the 4-5 years I've followed them.

What's the difference in these metrics that would be giving such wildly different views on our O and D?

I honestly have no idea. That big of a difference fr botg O and D is really strange, yet the overall rating is the same.

Offline ksu_FAN

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #36 on: November 14, 2017, 07:01:13 AM »
The story of Snyder 2.0; as the offense goes, so go the Cats.

The last 3 seasons are a disturbing trend. Outside of a fantastic last 6 or so games last year, it has become a real issue for this program.

Sean gonna Sean though.




Offline ksu_FAN

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #37 on: November 15, 2017, 09:07:49 AM »
Best 25 wins and worst 10 losses of Snyder 2.0 based on the average S&P/FEI ratings.

4 of the worst 10 losses are in the last 3 seasons. The other 6 were in the first 2 seasons.

Only 2 wins over Top 40 teams in the last 3 seasons.

2011/2012 were special seasons.

Offline cfbandyman

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #38 on: November 15, 2017, 09:23:38 AM »
Despite our offense looking like garbage those numbers seems to imply we are good at moving the ball, just not good at scoring.

Defense isn't great but for a Snyder 2.0 it ranks favorably.

Those scoring numbers don't include special teams (FGs/returns) or defense (returns). K-State has 73 points scored by Reed/Adams returns and McCrane FGs, over 28% of our points for the year.

Also, our biggest drop from last year is in points per drive inside the 40. Last year in Big 12 play we scored 5.29 PPD<40 and allowed 4.49 PPD<40 for a +.80 differntial, 2nd in the Big 12. This year we are only at 4.09 while allowing 4.05, for a differential of just +.04, 7th in the league. We've also gone from best in the league at forcing TOs (+.78 per game) to 4th (+.40 per game). The difference between winning and losing isn't a lot and those numbers are pretty telling.

I guess that what what I was getting at with us moving the ball and not scoring. We settle for way more FGs than get TDs this year, and I can think of 3 drives in the last 3 games (2 against TCU, 1 against KU) off the top of my head where we were inside the 20 and we either TO on downs or sack strip fumble. Those plays for sure have hurt those aforementioned number drops. I  just wonder if those became TDs how much that would affect the PPD<40. Prolly enough to make it respectable.

Add practically the entire first half vs WVU to this list. Good grief. Not being able to score from the 3 in 3 downs was pathetic AF
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Offline ksu_FAN

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #39 on: November 15, 2017, 09:31:52 AM »
PPD<40 now down to 3.94 in Big 12 play. Last year it was 5.29. That's a significant drop.

Offline Steffy08

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #40 on: November 15, 2017, 09:37:16 AM »
Best 25 wins and worst 10 losses of Snyder 2.0 based on the average S&P/FEI ratings.

4 of the worst 10 losses are in the last 3 seasons. The other 6 were in the first 2 seasons.

Only 2 wins over Top 40 teams in the last 3 seasons.

2011/2012 were special seasons.

This is really cool; thanks for doing that.  If you were so inclined, I would love to see this same type of chart combining Snyder 2.0 and 1.0.

Offline ksu_FAN

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #41 on: November 15, 2017, 09:43:32 AM »
Best 25 wins and worst 10 losses of Snyder 2.0 based on the average S&P/FEI ratings.

4 of the worst 10 losses are in the last 3 seasons. The other 6 were in the first 2 seasons.

Only 2 wins over Top 40 teams in the last 3 seasons.

2011/2012 were special seasons.

This is really cool; thanks for doing that.  If you were so inclined, I would love to see this same type of chart combining Snyder 2.0 and 1.0.

I would too, but S&P and FEI stats only go back to 2005. I'm not sure there are great metrics before then, I suppose I could go with Sagarin, but in only goes back to 98.