Author Topic: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread  (Read 2378 times)

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Offline ksu_FAN

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2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« on: September 11, 2017, 02:05:37 PM »
Really early Big 12 stats for Bill Connelly's 5 factors. These are really distorted based on small sample size and a wide variety of opponent strength, etc.





Also, K-State offensive stats with just the 1s (Ertz).



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Offline cfbandyman

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #1 on: September 11, 2017, 02:29:58 PM »
Close to a 1st down every play  :eek:

Will be fun to see how these change over the next few games, though granted the way things are going TCU will be our first really tough game (aside from the potential craziness of @Vandy or @Tex)
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Offline ksu_FAN

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2017, 12:50:02 PM »



Offline ksu_FAN

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2017, 01:03:58 PM »



Offline ksu_FAN

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2017, 08:06:16 PM »
There is still plenty of distortion from varied schedules for each team, but the snap shot from the numbers is coming together. Next week I'll start adding Big 12 only stats as well after each team has 2 league games.

Bottom chart has K-State and Baylor final numbers compared to the Big 12 averages for all games so far. Defense was really good and offense wasn't good, but also not terrible. Those 8-12 points we left on the field because of offensive breakdowns in the red zone are very telling.






Offline kslim

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2017, 08:10:23 PM »
we should be averaging 45 points a game, good lord
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Offline Chingon

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2017, 10:16:35 PM »
We've played the easiest schedule in the Big 12 (by quite a bit).  Our raw stats might mean something after we beat a team with another win over an fbs school.

Offline CaliforniaLonghorn

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2017, 10:44:52 PM »
Time of possession is not included

This year I believe time of possession will be a big determining factor in BIG XII play.

All 4 Texas' schools have shown an indication that up tempo offenses are a thing of the past even Tech.
Tech tried to control the ball and tempo by slowing down their offense against Okie Lite

Whatever the factors that have lead to this I do not know. Some say it is the next step from spread offenses others with allegiance to a SEC school will give the SEC credit by saying Aggy playing in the SEC has toughen up Texas football.

K state played them in a bowl last year and they did not look any tougher .

Funny thing is K State has been doing this inside the Big XII since the spread offenses started taking over after OU's 2000 championship

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2017, 12:29:17 AM »
californialonghorn is chingon's greatest work so far
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Offline ednksu

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2017, 06:51:57 AM »
Great work _Fan!

Is offensive success based on any points scored or just TDs?

And our special teams has done well for us with the starting field position. 
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Offline ksu_FAN

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2017, 07:05:31 AM »
Great work _Fan!

Is offensive success based on any points scored or just TDs?

And our special teams has done well for us with the starting field position. 

Success rate doesn't have anything to do with scoring, its just a simple measure of how many plays are "successful". More about the numbers and rationale are here: https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/1/24/5337968/college-football-five-factors

Here is the basic explanation from when Bill Connelly put this together a few years ago:

Quote
But over time, I've come to realize that the sport comes down to five basic things, four of which you can mostly control. You make more big plays than your opponent, you stay on schedule, you tilt the field, you finish drives, and you fall on the ball. Explosiveness, efficiency, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers are the five factors to winning football games.

If you win the explosiveness battle (using PPP), you win 86 percent of the time.
If you win the efficency battle (using Success Rate), you win 83 percent of the time.
If you win the drive-finishing battle (using points per trip inside the 40), you win 75 percent of the time.
If you win the field position battle (using average starting field position), you win 72 percent of the time.
If you win the turnover battle (using turnover margin), you win 73 percent of the time.

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2017, 08:47:56 AM »
FAN, do special teams and defensive touchdowns get tacked onto the offense's PPP?

Offline ksu_FAN

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2017, 08:55:35 AM »
FAN, do special teams and defensive touchdowns get tacked onto the offense's PPP?

No, they aren't counted, only offensive scores.

Offline mocat

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #13 on: October 05, 2017, 02:13:01 PM »
our PPP differential is 7th in the nation, even after losing a game 7-14, and winning a tight one vs baylor. that's crazy

Offline ksu_FAN

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2017, 02:39:25 PM »
our PPP differential is 7th in the nation, even after losing a game 7-14, and winning a tight one vs baylor. that's crazy

That's a distorted by our weak first 2 opponents.

But like I said in another thread, I do like that we scored on 7 of 10 drives last week vs Baylor.

Offline mocat

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #15 on: October 05, 2017, 02:41:35 PM »
our PPP differential is 7th in the nation, even after losing a game 7-14, and winning a tight one vs baylor. that's crazy

That's a distorted by our weak first 2 opponents.

But like I said in another thread, I do like that we scored on 7 of 10 drives last week vs Baylor.

yeah but there are undefeated teams with weaker first two games that don't PPP as well as us

Offline BIG APPLE CAT

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #16 on: October 07, 2017, 03:18:52 AM »
Mocat is down with OPPPP

Offline ksu_FAN

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #17 on: October 10, 2017, 09:02:51 AM »
Big 12 games only:



All games:


Offline Cire

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2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #18 on: October 10, 2017, 07:16:14 PM »
Need more turnovers, find a pass rush.


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Offline ksu_FAN

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #19 on: October 15, 2017, 03:36:27 PM »
1/3 of the way through, K-State's offense just doesn't have the efficiency (see drive stats) compared to last year. Also not dominating TOs.



And the differentials for points per drive and points per drive inside the 40 are even more stark. Going from one of the best finishing offenses in the league to the worst won't get it done.







Offline ksu_FAN

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #20 on: October 19, 2017, 02:56:23 PM »
One thought on Oklahoma; their defense is not good. The footballoutsiders metrics rate them #67/59 in the country on defense. Of course, K-State's offense is #50/77, so that doesn't help with that match up. Also, their special teams are #93/122 and ours is #11/11, on paper a big advantage. But yeah, OU's offense is #1/2 vs our #49/44.

I keep thinking our offense has to show better than it has so far, but that's probably just the optimist in me.

Offline Dlew12

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #21 on: October 19, 2017, 03:03:51 PM »
I've lost hope with this offense.  I thought the Vanderbilt game was going to be an outlier, but then we followed that up with 3 straight duds.  Eventually, we are what we've done.  I think we'll be lucky to get to a bowl game.

With that in mind, I think Bill would be doing the next coach a huge favor if he'd toss Thompson out there this year to let him take his lumps, have some bad (or good) performances, and come in next year with a little bit of experience under his belt.


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Offline pvegs

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #22 on: October 19, 2017, 04:07:57 PM »
I've lost hope with this offense.  I thought the Vanderbilt game was going to be an outlier, but then we followed that up with 3 straight duds.  Eventually, we are what we've done.  I think we'll be lucky to get to a bowl game.

With that in mind, I think Bill would be doing the next coach a huge favor if he'd toss Thompson out there this year to let him take his lumps, have some bad (or good) performances, and come in next year with a little bit of experience under his belt.

yeah, dlew, yeah

Online wetwillie

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #23 on: October 19, 2017, 04:37:09 PM »
the next coach isn't going to want a qb with a shoulder hernia so i say let delton use up his body
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Offline ksu_FAN

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Re: 2017 football_FAN stat nerd thread
« Reply #24 on: October 22, 2017, 06:27:50 PM »
After 4 games, Big 12 only games are starting to give a clear picture of this league. This year's Cats are highlighting that being slightly below average both offensively and defensively makes it tough to win football games. Its enough to have mainly close, competitive games and lose. I'd say I'm still most frustrated by the offense because that's been our consistently better unit and we had so much returning. Things will get better this week by playing a terrible Kansas team and we'll have still have a shot to get bowl eligible with Tech, WVU, and ISU remaining, but it won't change what has been an incredibly frustrating season.