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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Football => Topic started by: kso_FAN on September 11, 2017, 02:05:37 PM
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Really early Big 12 stats for Bill Connelly's 5 factors. These are really distorted based on small sample size and a wide variety of opponent strength, etc.
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Also, K-State offensive stats with just the 1s (Ertz).
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJdGjs3VAAA0RF6.png:large)
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Close to a 1st down every play :eek:
Will be fun to see how these change over the next few games, though granted the way things are going TCU will be our first really tough game (aside from the potential craziness of @Vandy or @Tex)
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There is still plenty of distortion from varied schedules for each team, but the snap shot from the numbers is coming together. Next week I'll start adding Big 12 only stats as well after each team has 2 league games.
Bottom chart has K-State and Baylor final numbers compared to the Big 12 averages for all games so far. Defense was really good and offense wasn't good, but also not terrible. Those 8-12 points we left on the field because of offensive breakdowns in the red zone are very telling.
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we should be averaging 45 points a game, good lord
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We've played the easiest schedule in the Big 12 (by quite a bit). Our raw stats might mean something after we beat a team with another win over an fbs school.
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Time of possession is not included
This year I believe time of possession will be a big determining factor in BIG XII play.
All 4 Texas' schools have shown an indication that up tempo offenses are a thing of the past even Tech.
Tech tried to control the ball and tempo by slowing down their offense against Okie Lite
Whatever the factors that have lead to this I do not know. Some say it is the next step from spread offenses others with allegiance to a SEC school will give the SEC credit by saying Aggy playing in the SEC has toughen up Texas football.
K state played them in a bowl last year and they did not look any tougher .
Funny thing is K State has been doing this inside the Big XII since the spread offenses started taking over after OU's 2000 championship
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californialonghorn is chingon's greatest work so far
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Great work _Fan!
Is offensive success based on any points scored or just TDs?
And our special teams has done well for us with the starting field position.
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Great work _Fan!
Is offensive success based on any points scored or just TDs?
And our special teams has done well for us with the starting field position.
Success rate doesn't have anything to do with scoring, its just a simple measure of how many plays are "successful". More about the numbers and rationale are here: https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/1/24/5337968/college-football-five-factors
Here is the basic explanation from when Bill Connelly put this together a few years ago:
But over time, I've come to realize that the sport comes down to five basic things, four of which you can mostly control. You make more big plays than your opponent, you stay on schedule, you tilt the field, you finish drives, and you fall on the ball. Explosiveness, efficiency, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers are the five factors to winning football games.
If you win the explosiveness battle (using PPP), you win 86 percent of the time.
If you win the efficency battle (using Success Rate), you win 83 percent of the time.
If you win the drive-finishing battle (using points per trip inside the 40), you win 75 percent of the time.
If you win the field position battle (using average starting field position), you win 72 percent of the time.
If you win the turnover battle (using turnover margin), you win 73 percent of the time.
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FAN, do special teams and defensive touchdowns get tacked onto the offense's PPP?
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FAN, do special teams and defensive touchdowns get tacked onto the offense's PPP?
No, they aren't counted, only offensive scores.
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our PPP differential is 7th in the nation, even after losing a game 7-14, and winning a tight one vs baylor. that's crazy
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our PPP differential is 7th in the nation, even after losing a game 7-14, and winning a tight one vs baylor. that's crazy
That's a distorted by our weak first 2 opponents.
But like I said in another thread, I do like that we scored on 7 of 10 drives last week vs Baylor.
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our PPP differential is 7th in the nation, even after losing a game 7-14, and winning a tight one vs baylor. that's crazy
That's a distorted by our weak first 2 opponents.
But like I said in another thread, I do like that we scored on 7 of 10 drives last week vs Baylor.
yeah but there are undefeated teams with weaker first two games that don't PPP as well as us
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Mocat is down with OPPPP
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Big 12 games only:
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171010/ac12c36db0300c827f5457b1bf684ab4.jpg)
All games:
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171010/4008fd0eeff26b9a7eb58b98d98d6301.jpg)
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Need more turnovers, find a pass rush.
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1/3 of the way through, K-State's offense just doesn't have the efficiency (see drive stats) compared to last year. Also not dominating TOs.
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And the differentials for points per drive and points per drive inside the 40 are even more stark. Going from one of the best finishing offenses in the league to the worst won't get it done.
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One thought on Oklahoma; their defense is not good. The footballoutsiders metrics rate them #67/59 in the country on defense. Of course, K-State's offense is #50/77, so that doesn't help with that match up. Also, their special teams are #93/122 and ours is #11/11, on paper a big advantage. But yeah, OU's offense is #1/2 vs our #49/44.
I keep thinking our offense has to show better than it has so far, but that's probably just the optimist in me.
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I've lost hope with this offense. I thought the Vanderbilt game was going to be an outlier, but then we followed that up with 3 straight duds. Eventually, we are what we've done. I think we'll be lucky to get to a bowl game.
With that in mind, I think Bill would be doing the next coach a huge favor if he'd toss Thompson out there this year to let him take his lumps, have some bad (or good) performances, and come in next year with a little bit of experience under his belt.
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I've lost hope with this offense. I thought the Vanderbilt game was going to be an outlier, but then we followed that up with 3 straight duds. Eventually, we are what we've done. I think we'll be lucky to get to a bowl game.
With that in mind, I think Bill would be doing the next coach a huge favor if he'd toss Thompson out there this year to let him take his lumps, have some bad (or good) performances, and come in next year with a little bit of experience under his belt.
yeah, dlew, yeah
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the next coach isn't going to want a qb with a shoulder hernia so i say let delton use up his body
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After 4 games, Big 12 only games are starting to give a clear picture of this league. This year's Cats are highlighting that being slightly below average both offensively and defensively makes it tough to win football games. Its enough to have mainly close, competitive games and lose. I'd say I'm still most frustrated by the offense because that's been our consistently better unit and we had so much returning. Things will get better this week by playing a terrible Kansas team and we'll have still have a shot to get bowl eligible with Tech, WVU, and ISU remaining, but it won't change what has been an incredibly frustrating season.
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I’m rewatching this game _FAN and Barnes had 100+ yards in the first 3:30. He had a 20 yard run at 11:30, Silmon had ~2 runs and dimel had a few. Other than that Delton ran it every time. Granted he had 138 rush yards which is the most in a half by a QB since 2007.
I’m at 12 min left in the game and Barnes still hasn’t touched the ball again. If you’re a RB why would you ever come to KSU? End of the first half we fell in love with this QB run bs(it worked with Klein and dimel still thinks we have Klein). I just don’t get our offensive strategy. We make no adjustments at all. It’s almost like we have great success with RB’s but that’s outside of the “game plan” so we move back to the plan and never change. If I’m an OC and something is working outside the game plan, I keep rough ridin' using it until it doesn’t work anymore. Then go to the game plan and if that doesn’t work go back to what worked.
It’s just so frustrating how we can’t adapt. If something’s working why leave? Just because you didn’t plan to do it. I feel like we get so laser focused on the game plan we can’t deviate from it when some blatantly obvious is working.
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Cats vs Tech looks like a coin flip. Might come down to TOs.
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So yeah, sometimes numbers are weird.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DNZFv3hVwAANNOv.png:large)
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Despite our offense looking like garbage those numbers seems to imply we are good at moving the ball, just not good at scoring.
Defense isn't great but for a Snyder 2.0 it ranks favorably.
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Despite our offense looking like garbage those numbers seems to imply we are good at moving the ball, just not good at scoring.
Defense isn't great but for a Snyder 2.0 it ranks favorably.
Those scoring numbers don't include special teams (FGs/returns) or defense (returns). K-State has 73 points scored by Reed/Adams returns and McCrane FGs, over 28% of our points for the year.
Also, our biggest drop from last year is in points per drive inside the 40. Last year in Big 12 play we scored 5.29 PPD<40 and allowed 4.49 PPD<40 for a +.80 differntial, 2nd in the Big 12. This year we are only at 4.09 while allowing 4.05, for a differential of just +.04, 7th in the league. We've also gone from best in the league at forcing TOs (+.78 per game) to 4th (+.40 per game). The difference between winning and losing isn't a lot and those numbers are pretty telling.
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Despite our offense looking like garbage those numbers seems to imply we are good at moving the ball, just not good at scoring.
Defense isn't great but for a Snyder 2.0 it ranks favorably.
Those scoring numbers don't include special teams (FGs/returns) or defense (returns). K-State has 73 points scored by Reed/Adams returns and McCrane FGs, over 28% of our points for the year.
Also, our biggest drop from last year is in points per drive inside the 40. Last year in Big 12 play we scored 5.29 PPD<40 and allowed 4.49 PPD<40 for a +.80 differntial, 2nd in the Big 12. This year we are only at 4.09 while allowing 4.05, for a differential of just +.04, 7th in the league. We've also gone from best in the league at forcing TOs (+.78 per game) to 4th (+.40 per game). The difference between winning and losing isn't a lot and those numbers are pretty telling.
I guess that what what I was getting at with us moving the ball and not scoring. We settle for way more FGs than get TDs this year, and I can think of 3 drives in the last 3 games (2 against TCU, 1 against KU) off the top of my head where we were inside the 20 and we either TO on downs or sack strip fumble. Those plays for sure have hurt those aforementioned number drops. I just wonder if those became TDs how much that would affect the PPD<40. Prolly enough to make it respectable.
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K-State has weird ratings this year in footballoutsiders.com metrics.
#58 in both with special teams at 5 and 6, but S&P has the offense at 44 and defense at 75 while FEI has offense at 89 and defense at 48. I can't remember ever seeing that big of a difference between the two in the 4-5 years I've followed them.
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you don't count FG's as offensive points?
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you don't count FG's as offensive points?
For those Snyder points per play stats, no. I use sports reference data and only include rushing TDs and passing TDs to get numbers for points per play for both offense and defense.
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K-State has weird ratings this year in footballoutsiders.com metrics.
#58 in both with special teams at 5 and 6, but S&P has the offense at 44 and defense at 75 while FEI has offense at 89 and defense at 48. I can't remember ever seeing that big of a difference between the two in the 4-5 years I've followed them.
What's the difference in these metrics that would be giving such wildly different views on our O and D?
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K-State has weird ratings this year in footballoutsiders.com metrics.
#58 in both with special teams at 5 and 6, but S&P has the offense at 44 and defense at 75 while FEI has offense at 89 and defense at 48. I can't remember ever seeing that big of a difference between the two in the 4-5 years I've followed them.
What's the difference in these metrics that would be giving such wildly different views on our O and D?
I honestly have no idea. That big of a difference fr botg O and D is really strange, yet the overall rating is the same.
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The story of Snyder 2.0; as the offense goes, so go the Cats.
The last 3 seasons are a disturbing trend. Outside of a fantastic last 6 or so games last year, it has become a real issue for this program.
Sean gonna Sean though.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DOmC1voXkAICzVi.jpg:large)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DOduhMOUQAAtdER.png)
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Best 25 wins and worst 10 losses of Snyder 2.0 based on the average S&P/FEI ratings.
4 of the worst 10 losses are in the last 3 seasons. The other 6 were in the first 2 seasons.
Only 2 wins over Top 40 teams in the last 3 seasons.
2011/2012 were special seasons.
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Despite our offense looking like garbage those numbers seems to imply we are good at moving the ball, just not good at scoring.
Defense isn't great but for a Snyder 2.0 it ranks favorably.
Those scoring numbers don't include special teams (FGs/returns) or defense (returns). K-State has 73 points scored by Reed/Adams returns and McCrane FGs, over 28% of our points for the year.
Also, our biggest drop from last year is in points per drive inside the 40. Last year in Big 12 play we scored 5.29 PPD<40 and allowed 4.49 PPD<40 for a +.80 differntial, 2nd in the Big 12. This year we are only at 4.09 while allowing 4.05, for a differential of just +.04, 7th in the league. We've also gone from best in the league at forcing TOs (+.78 per game) to 4th (+.40 per game). The difference between winning and losing isn't a lot and those numbers are pretty telling.
I guess that what what I was getting at with us moving the ball and not scoring. We settle for way more FGs than get TDs this year, and I can think of 3 drives in the last 3 games (2 against TCU, 1 against KU) off the top of my head where we were inside the 20 and we either TO on downs or sack strip fumble. Those plays for sure have hurt those aforementioned number drops. I just wonder if those became TDs how much that would affect the PPD<40. Prolly enough to make it respectable.
Add practically the entire first half vs WVU to this list. Good grief. Not being able to score from the 3 in 3 downs was pathetic AF
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PPD<40 now down to 3.94 in Big 12 play. Last year it was 5.29. That's a significant drop.
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Best 25 wins and worst 10 losses of Snyder 2.0 based on the average S&P/FEI ratings.
4 of the worst 10 losses are in the last 3 seasons. The other 6 were in the first 2 seasons.
Only 2 wins over Top 40 teams in the last 3 seasons.
2011/2012 were special seasons.
This is really cool; thanks for doing that. If you were so inclined, I would love to see this same type of chart combining Snyder 2.0 and 1.0.
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Best 25 wins and worst 10 losses of Snyder 2.0 based on the average S&P/FEI ratings.
4 of the worst 10 losses are in the last 3 seasons. The other 6 were in the first 2 seasons.
Only 2 wins over Top 40 teams in the last 3 seasons.
2011/2012 were special seasons.
This is really cool; thanks for doing that. If you were so inclined, I would love to see this same type of chart combining Snyder 2.0 and 1.0.
I would too, but S&P and FEI stats only go back to 2005. I'm not sure there are great metrics before then, I suppose I could go with Sagarin, but in only goes back to 98.
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Cats finish with about the 4th/5th best offense and defense and finish tied for 4th in the league. However, with the #1 SFP (special teams) and #3 TO margin, you would probably hope for a little bit better. Injuries played a part as did struggles by both Dimel and Hayes to figure out their units. I was hoping for 9-3 going into the season, so I'll call it a decent finish to a disappointing season.
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Yes, a few weeks ago 7 wins seemed impossible.
Hope we draw a winnable bowl matchup
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It would be interesting to see a win share metric for measuring the impact of our special teams on this season.
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It would be interesting to see a win share metric for measuring the impact of our special teams on this season.
Yes. Its tough to isolate special teams. The field position battle has a significant relationship to winning and losing, but its only partially due to special teams. For example, just having a decent offense that regularly moves the ball to near midfield before punting will also help. Or a having a good TO margin, which likely means you are getting some possessions with good/great field position.
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It would be interesting to see a win share metric for measuring the impact of our special teams on this season.
Yes. Its tough to isolate special teams. The field position battle has a significant relationship to winning and losing, but its only partially due to special teams. For example, just having a decent offense that regularly moves the ball to near midfield before punting will also help. Or a having a good TO margin, which likely means you are getting some possessions with good/great field position.
Field position had a pretty big impact on Saturday's game and it was all about the wind. ISU had is completely bottled up for the 2nd and 3rd quarters because of that damn wind.
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It would be interesting to see a win share metric for measuring the impact of our special teams on this season.
Yes. Its tough to isolate special teams. The field position battle has a significant relationship to winning and losing, but its only partially due to special teams. For example, just having a decent offense that regularly moves the ball to near midfield before punting will also help. Or a having a good TO margin, which likely means you are getting some possessions with good/great field position.
Field position had a pretty big impact on Saturday's game and it was all about the wind. ISU had is completely bottled up for the 2nd and 3rd quarters because of that damn wind.
Yes it did. Wind and less than 100 yards of offense through 3 quarters made it tough to swing the FP (besides the first big return we had to set up our TD).