i do think ukraine is taking a crap-load of casualties these days (they don't report totals, but if you take zelensky's 60-100 + 500/day, it's obvious that it's a lot). and russia does seem to have learned from some mistakes.
but most of the military/intel types i follow on twitter (as well as inferences from the us and uk briefings) seem to think the basic story is still the same. ukraine has a manpower advantage and as they bring nato weaponry online, russia's equipment advantage gets smaller all the time.
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