Author Topic: 4th District  (Read 9336 times)

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Offline Mrs. Gooch

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4th District
« on: November 18, 2016, 12:11:38 PM »
Now that Pompeo is going to be the CIA director, do we get to have a special election?


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Offline yoga-like_abana

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Re: 4th District
« Reply #1 on: November 18, 2016, 12:15:42 PM »
pretty strong district.. wealthy and known for its fishing

Offline Emo EMAW

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Re: 4th District
« Reply #2 on: November 18, 2016, 01:37:33 PM »
pretty strong district.. wealthy and known for its fishing

Median income   $40,917  :frown:

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: 4th District
« Reply #3 on: November 18, 2016, 01:43:22 PM »
pretty strong district.. wealthy and known for its fishing

Median income   $40,917  :frown:

Wealthier than District 2, anyway. Kind of surprising how much wealthier District 1 is than 4.
« Last Edit: November 18, 2016, 01:50:19 PM by Rage Against the McKee »

Offline renocat

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Re: 4th District
« Reply #4 on: November 18, 2016, 09:45:34 PM »
Congressman Brownback?  Tim Loserkamp?  Tihart? Kobach?

Offline Mrs. Gooch

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Re: 4th District
« Reply #5 on: November 18, 2016, 11:12:39 PM »
No. We get to have a special election.

Offline Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)

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Re: 4th District
« Reply #6 on: November 21, 2016, 09:06:57 PM »
Charles Koch would be a good one.
goEMAW Karmic BBS Shepherd

Offline Mrs. Gooch

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Re: 4th District
« Reply #7 on: March 28, 2017, 09:00:30 AM »
Don’t forget about the special election on April 11.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: 4th District
« Reply #8 on: March 28, 2017, 12:59:19 PM »
pretty strong district.. wealthy and known for its fishing

Median income   $40,917  :frown:

Wealthier than District 2, anyway. Kind of surprising how much wealthier District 1 is than 4.

District 1 is wealthy?

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: 4th District
« Reply #9 on: March 28, 2017, 06:55:59 PM »
pretty strong district.. wealthy and known for its fishing

Median income   $40,917  :frown:

Wealthier than District 2, anyway. Kind of surprising how much wealthier District 1 is than 4.

District 1 is wealthy?

I think I typed that backwards.

Offline Mrs. Gooch

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Re: 4th District
« Reply #10 on: April 11, 2017, 08:42:00 AM »
Don’t forget about the special election on April 11.

Last chance today.

Offline star seed 7

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Re: 4th District
« Reply #11 on: April 11, 2017, 09:16:44 AM »
Apparently Republicans are slightly worried about this seat. There are trump robocalls going out, I saw a transcript of one and it's pretty lol and very trumpy
Hyperbolic partisan duplicitous hypocrite

Offline K-S-U-Wildcats!

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Re: 4th District
« Reply #12 on: April 11, 2017, 09:20:48 AM »
Can't wait to see who wins this race. I'm not a big fan of Estes, and don't know anything about the Thompson other than he appears to toe the liberal party line on most issues. I voted for Estes but won't be terribly disappointed on a micro-level if he loses.

But at a macro level this race is fascinating. Trump won this district 60-33. This could be a good test of whether the recent town hall protests are truly indicative of a liberal backlash, or just the same liberal professional protesters. My hypothesis is that it is the latter.

Here's how I break down who has the advantages in this race.....
- Money: Push. Both national parties have poured money into this race.
- Demographics: Estes. This is a reliably red district.
- Candidate: Thompson. He is viewed as an outsider and (I hear) has run better ads. Estes is dull and has run a lackluster campaign.
- Headwinds: Thompson. An unpopular GOP governor and Trump's fading popularity threaten to suppress GOP turnout.
- Enthusiasm: Thompson. Special elections, in particular, can swing wildly based upon voter turnout. It is likely that libs are more enthusiastic about this race than the pubs.

So Thompson has every advantage in this race except for the big one: basic demographics. Therefore, if Estes wins comfortably (10+ points) I think that supports my hypothesis and is good news for the GOP and bad news for the liberals. If Thompson wins comfortably, that's great news for the liberals (but that's not going to happen).

If the race is closer than 10 points.... I'm not sure what that means. It depends upon which of Thompson's advantages was most responsible. The fact that he is a more appealing candidate? Estes being dragged down by Brownback? Or is there really a liberal electoral backlash swelling?

I believe there are a few more special elections in the next few months to better test the theory. I wouldn't put too much stock in just this race unless it's a blowout either way.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, K-State fans could have beheaded the entire KU team at midcourt, and K-State fans would be celebrating it this morning.  They are the ISIS of Big 12 fanbases.

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: 4th District
« Reply #13 on: April 11, 2017, 09:34:04 AM »
Have the liberals been filling town hall meetings in the Kansas 4th district? My thoughts are that Estes will win by about 20-30 points and the ads I've been seeing are a waste of money.

Offline Mrs. Gooch

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Re: 4th District
« Reply #14 on: April 11, 2017, 09:36:01 AM »
FYI - You don't have to be a liberal to not want a lying Brownback clone who won't even show up to represent his constituents.

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: 4th District
« Reply #15 on: April 11, 2017, 10:13:41 AM »
Can't wait to see who wins this race. I'm not a big fan of Estes, and don't know anything about the Thompson other than he appears to toe the liberal party line on most issues. I voted for Estes but won't be terribly disappointed on a micro-level if he loses.

But at a macro level this race is fascinating. Trump won this district 60-33. This could be a good test of whether the recent town hall protests are truly indicative of a liberal backlash, or just the same liberal professional protesters. My hypothesis is that it is the latter.

Here's how I break down who has the advantages in this race.....
- Money: Push. Both national parties have poured money into this race.
- Demographics: Estes. This is a reliably red district.
- Candidate: Thompson. He is viewed as an outsider and (I hear) has run better ads. Estes is dull and has run a lackluster campaign.
- Headwinds: Thompson. An unpopular GOP governor and Trump's fading popularity threaten to suppress GOP turnout.
- Enthusiasm: Thompson. Special elections, in particular, can swing wildly based upon voter turnout. It is likely that libs are more enthusiastic about this race than the pubs.

So Thompson has every advantage in this race except for the big one: basic demographics. Therefore, if Estes wins comfortably (10+ points) I think that supports my hypothesis and is good news for the GOP and bad news for the liberals. If Thompson wins comfortably, that's great news for the liberals (but that's not going to happen).

If the race is closer than 10 points.... I'm not sure what that means. It depends upon which of Thompson's advantages was most responsible. The fact that he is a more appealing candidate? Estes being dragged down by Brownback? Or is there really a liberal electoral backlash swelling?

I believe there are a few more special elections in the next few months to better test the theory. I wouldn't put too much stock in just this race unless it's a blowout either way.

what on earth

Offline star seed 7

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Re: 4th District
« Reply #16 on: April 11, 2017, 10:16:36 AM »
As goes the kansas 4th District, so goes the nation kk
Hyperbolic partisan duplicitous hypocrite

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: 4th District
« Reply #17 on: April 11, 2017, 10:37:38 AM »
our man in wichita has 500 words on the special election:
-there are two sides
-either side may win by a lot or it could be close
-either way probably doesn't mean much

can't wait for a follow up after results are in!

Online Cire

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Re: 4th District
« Reply #18 on: April 11, 2017, 10:43:21 AM »
lol

Offline K-S-U-Wildcats!

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Re: 4th District
« Reply #19 on: April 11, 2017, 11:31:09 AM »
Have the liberals been filling town hall meetings in the Kansas 4th district? My thoughts are that Estes will win by about 20-30 points and the ads I've been seeing are a waste of money.

I don't think there have been any 4th district town halls. Given that the seat is empty. I also think that Estes is going to win by 10+ points, which would be good news for the GOP given Thompson's various advantages. It'll be interesting reading the tea leaves if it is closer than that.

FYI - You don't have to be a liberal to not want a lying Brownback clone who won't even show up to represent his constituents.

I don't think Estes is a "lying Brownback clone" but maybe you can elaborate. More like vanilla ice cream cone.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, K-State fans could have beheaded the entire KU team at midcourt, and K-State fans would be celebrating it this morning.  They are the ISIS of Big 12 fanbases.

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: 4th District
« Reply #20 on: April 11, 2017, 11:37:50 AM »
in the actual real world Thompson's "advantages" include being turned down for a request for $20,000 from the Kansas Democratic Party and not getting a finger lifted from the DNC while Estes had Ted Cruz fly in and President Donald Trump record a robocall for him.

What are you even talking about?

Offline renocat

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Re: 4th District
« Reply #21 on: April 11, 2017, 11:38:21 AM »
An old fat carpetbagger imported in from NE KS isn't what Wichita needs, even if he is a conservative crazed republican.

Offline star seed 7

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Re: 4th District
« Reply #22 on: April 11, 2017, 11:40:04 AM »
in the actual real world Thompson's "advantages" include being turned down for a request for $20,000 from the Kansas Democratic Party and not getting a finger lifted from the DNC while Estes had Ted Cruz fly in and President Donald Trump record a robocall for him.

What are you even talking about?

Pence too
Hyperbolic partisan duplicitous hypocrite

Offline steve dave

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Re: 4th District
« Reply #23 on: April 11, 2017, 11:49:15 AM »
there is literally no way the republican doesn't win this thing. a lot of people are underestimating the number of old retired rush listeners in this district. the only thing they love more than voting in local elections is getting the mail every day at the exact moment the mail guy arrives at their house.

Offline steve dave

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Re: 4th District
« Reply #24 on: April 11, 2017, 11:52:43 AM »
that in depth truth analysis goes for the 1st and 2nd as well