Author Topic: December jobs report: now with short term mortgage rate analysis from steve dave  (Read 15676 times)

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Offline puniraptor

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Where's my short term mortgage rate analysis? This is seriously relevant to me RIGHT NOW.

NM, I read some articles and am good now I guess.

what did you decide to do?

let it ride, baby.

glad to see its down from last week. I would have felt like a major league dumbass, if I had paid to lock the rate.

Offline sys

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do you have to lock the rate at some point, or can you just take the rate at the time you assume the mortgage, without paying any fees?
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline OregonSmock

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That's interesting, still doesn't really answer the question, and it still doesn't make up for the current universal consensus on job creation which currently says, ". . . far short of where it needs to be".

The only reason the unemployment rate is "falling" is because the DoL keeps removing people from the workforce.


If those graphs don't answer your question, I can't help you.  They show the percentage difference in full-time workers vs. part-time workers.  Since the recession, full-time employment has been gradually increasing in relation to part-time employment.  As for current job creation, you're right.  It isn't where it needs to be, but it would be closer if governments weren't cutting hundreds of thousands of public sector jobs. 

As to your last point, people who give up looking for work have always dropped out of the labor force.  They go from being unemployed to out of the labor force.  The unemployment rate is calculated the same as it's always been. 

Offline puniraptor

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do you have to lock the rate at some point, or can you just take the rate at the time you assume the mortgage, without paying any fees?

basically the rate is locked for free 60 days out from your closing. so for time increments beyond that, lenders will charge either an upfront fee or a certain additional interest % to lock the rate.


Offline puniraptor

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do you have to lock the rate at some point, or can you just take the rate at the time you assume the mortgage, without paying any fees?

basically the rate is locked  (for free) 60 days out from your closing. so for time increments beyond that, lenders will charge either an upfront fee or a certain additional interest % to lock the rate.

really speculative, vegas-y crap.

Offline OregonSmock

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That's interesting, still doesn't really answer the question, and it still doesn't make up for the current universal consensus on job creation which currently says, ". . . far short of where it needs to be".

The only reason the unemployment rate is "falling" is because the DoL keeps removing people from the workforce.


If those graphs don't answer your question, I can't help you.  They show the percentage difference in full-time workers vs. part-time workers.  Since the recession, full-time employment has been gradually increasing in relation to part-time employment.  As for current job creation, you're right.  It isn't where it needs to be, but it would be closer if governments weren't cutting hundreds of thousands of public sector jobs. 

As to your last point, people who give up looking for work have always dropped out of the labor force.  They go from being unemployed to out of the labor force.  The unemployment rate is calculated the same as it's always been.

That's exactly it, more people than ever have just given up.   

Your graphs also say nothing about benefits, pay etc. etc.




You're not completely wrong, but you're leaving out the fact that baby boomers are starting to retire, which lowers the labor force significantly.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/01/10/the-biggest-question-facing-the-u-s-economy-why-are-people-dropping-out-of-the-workforce/

Quote
1) The aging of America. One major reason the participation rate dropped involves long-run demographic trends that have little to do with the current economy. Baby boomers are starting to retire en masse, which means that there are fewer eligible American workers.

Demographics have always played a big role in the rise and fall of the labor force. From 1960 to 2000, the labor force in the United States surged from 59 percent to a peak of 67.3 percent. That was largely due to  more women entering the labor force. But it was also due to improvements in health and to the fact that the types of jobs available allowed Americans to work more years.

Since 2000, however, the labor force rate has been declining steadily as the baby boom generation has been retiring. That's why, in 2012, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago predicted that the labor force participation rate would be lower in 2020 regardless of how well the economy does.

One way to see the demographic shift is in this chart by Bloomberg Businessweek (via Derek Thompson).



Quote
Americans over the age of 65 are much less likely to work than prime-age Americans. And since that subset of Americans is expanding its ranks, that drives the labor-force participation rate down. Note that this shift is happening even though older Americans are staying on the job for longer than they did during the 1990s.

Economists disagree, however, on exactly how much demographics are responsible for the current fall in the participation rate. The Chicago Fed estimated in 2012 that retirements accounted for one-fourth of the drop in labor force participation since the recession began. Other analysts, including Barclays, have suggested that aging Boomers could account for more than half the drop.

Meanwhile, a recent paper by Shigeru Fujita of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia staked out a more nuanced view: Demographics, he argued, didn't play a huge role in the labor-force drop between 2007 and 2011. But since then, retirements are responsible for basically the entire fall of the participation rate. One possible reason is that many older Americans postponed retirement immediately after the financial crisis to rebuild their battered 401(k)s. By 2012 or so, they began retiring en masse.

Quote
2) The bad economy is keeping workers in school and out of the labor force. Demographics can't entirely explain of the labor force slide. For one, the number of Americans working or actively seeking work has actually fallen faster than demographers had predicted:





Quote
3) More workers are going on disability insurance: There are now roughly 8.8 million Americans receiving disability benefits, a number that has doubled since 1995. Could that be a factor pulling people out of the labor force?



Offline john "teach me how to" dougie

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Once the unemployed run out of unemployment insurance they are dropped from the workforce whether or not they are still looking for a job. This is the only reason the unemployment percentage has dropped at all during the last 4 years

Offline puniraptor

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do you have to lock the rate at some point, or can you just take the rate at the time you assume the mortgage, without paying any fees?

basically the rate is locked  (for free) 60 days out from your closing. so for time increments beyond that, lenders will charge either an upfront fee or a certain additional interest % to lock the rate.

really speculative, vegas-y crap.

i'm not sure if you HAVE to lock the rate at some point. good question. I will ask it.

Offline OregonSmock

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It's still a jobless "recovery".


http://chronicle.augusta.com/news/business/2014-01-28/obama-addresses-nation-best-economy-recession-even-many-americans-still

Quote
By the middle of this year, after years of steady but sluggish improvement, the United States is expected to have finally regained all the 8.7 million jobs lost during the recession, which officially ended 4½ years ago.

Quote
JOBS: Job growth has been remarkably steady in an uneven recovery. Employers have added at least 2.1 million jobs in each of the past three years, creating momentum that could help the economy gain speed in 2014. The unemployment rate has plunged from 7.9 percent to 6.7 percent over the past year. That’s down from a 10 percent peak in October 2009.

HOUSING: Real estate is rebounding. Home prices have climbed 13.7 percent over the past 12 months, according to a Standard & Poor’s index released Tuesday. Sales of existing homes totaled 5.09 million last year, the best such performance since 2006, the National Association of Realtors said last week.

CONSUMER SPENDING: The spending of consumers is starting to return to its pre-recession levels. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 80.7 this month, well above last year’s average of 73.3. Retail sales bumped up 4.2 percent in 2013, the fourth straight annual increase.

STOCKS: The Dow Jones industrial average enjoyed a monster 2013, climbing 28 percent. Corporate profits are at their highest share of the economy in the 66 years of tracking by the government.

Shares were bolstered by a Federal Reserve bond-buying program that is now being wound down. The eventual end of the program, paired with weak growth in China and troubles in Argentina and Turkey, help explain the 4.1 percent decline in the stock market since the start of this year.

Offline OregonSmock

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Once the unemployed run out of unemployment insurance they are dropped from the workforce whether or not they are still looking for a job. This is the only reason the unemployment percentage has dropped at all during the last 4 years

That's interesting, still doesn't really answer the question, and it still doesn't make up for the current universal consensus on job creation which currently says, ". . . far short of where it needs to be".

The only reason the unemployment rate is "falling" is because the DoL keeps removing people from the workforce.


If those graphs don't answer your question, I can't help you.  They show the percentage difference in full-time workers vs. part-time workers.  Since the recession, full-time employment has been gradually increasing in relation to part-time employment.  As for current job creation, you're right.  It isn't where it needs to be, but it would be closer if governments weren't cutting hundreds of thousands of public sector jobs. 

As to your last point, people who give up looking for work have always dropped out of the labor force.  They go from being unemployed to out of the labor force.  The unemployment rate is calculated the same as it's always been.

That's exactly it, more people than ever have just given up.   

Your graphs also say nothing about benefits, pay etc. etc.




You're not completely wrong, but you're leaving out the fact that baby boomers are starting to retire, which lowers the labor force significantly.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/01/10/the-biggest-question-facing-the-u-s-economy-why-are-people-dropping-out-of-the-workforce/

Quote
1) The aging of America. One major reason the participation rate dropped involves long-run demographic trends that have little to do with the current economy. Baby boomers are starting to retire en masse, which means that there are fewer eligible American workers.

Demographics have always played a big role in the rise and fall of the labor force. From 1960 to 2000, the labor force in the United States surged from 59 percent to a peak of 67.3 percent. That was largely due to  more women entering the labor force. But it was also due to improvements in health and to the fact that the types of jobs available allowed Americans to work more years.

Since 2000, however, the labor force rate has been declining steadily as the baby boom generation has been retiring. That's why, in 2012, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago predicted that the labor force participation rate would be lower in 2020 regardless of how well the economy does.

One way to see the demographic shift is in this chart by Bloomberg Businessweek (via Derek Thompson).



Quote
Americans over the age of 65 are much less likely to work than prime-age Americans. And since that subset of Americans is expanding its ranks, that drives the labor-force participation rate down. Note that this shift is happening even though older Americans are staying on the job for longer than they did during the 1990s.

Economists disagree, however, on exactly how much demographics are responsible for the current fall in the participation rate. The Chicago Fed estimated in 2012 that retirements accounted for one-fourth of the drop in labor force participation since the recession began. Other analysts, including Barclays, have suggested that aging Boomers could account for more than half the drop.

Meanwhile, a recent paper by Shigeru Fujita of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia staked out a more nuanced view: Demographics, he argued, didn't play a huge role in the labor-force drop between 2007 and 2011. But since then, retirements are responsible for basically the entire fall of the participation rate. One possible reason is that many older Americans postponed retirement immediately after the financial crisis to rebuild their battered 401(k)s. By 2012 or so, they began retiring en masse.

Quote
2) The bad economy is keeping workers in school and out of the labor force. Demographics can't entirely explain of the labor force slide. For one, the number of Americans working or actively seeking work has actually fallen faster than demographers had predicted:





Quote
3) More workers are going on disability insurance: There are now roughly 8.8 million Americans receiving disability benefits, a number that has doubled since 1995. Could that be a factor pulling people out of the labor force?




Offline OregonSmock

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Yet, a simple search yields countless articles in the Post, NYT, WSJ etc. etc. explaining how jobless recoveries are here to stay . . . articles with a litany of economists, research groups and think tanks all offering up their own explanations as to how and why Americans can expect even more "jobless recoveries" like the one we're in now when the next economic downturn hits.


Nothing gets in your little bubble, does it?  I've explained that part of the lack of a recovery is due to huge job losses in the public sector.  I've shown that private sector job growth is up significantly.  I've shown evidence of various labor force participation factors and just what exactly is going on within the labor force.   Since the recession, the US has added over 8 million jobs.  Yet, you continue to just repeat the same things over and over again.  What's the deal, man?

Offline sys

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you continue to just repeat the same things over and over again.  What's the deal, man?

umm, oregon, you're talking to dax.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline OregonSmock

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Baby boomers are retiring because they're getting older, and they can finally cash in on their retirement funds now that the stock market is at record levels.  People held onto their jobs through the recession due to the financial collapse, and now they're finally able to start retiring again. 

Offline Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)

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Is goE collecting rent from thinkprogress.com for all the crap BMW has plastered all over this thread?

If not, it should be.



Also, would be curious to know bmw's thoughts on Obama's 9 million enrolled figure.
goEMAW Karmic BBS Shepherd

Offline Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)

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Has anyone been more butthurt by GWB mushing Obamas face on job creation than BMW?  I think not.

This meltdown is all the evidence I need.


Also OT, what does fed tapering do the mortgage rates???
goEMAW Karmic BBS Shepherd

Offline steve dave

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DROP! DROP! DROP! DROP! DROP!

 :Woot:

Offline wetwillie

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DROP! DROP! DROP! DROP! DROP!

 :Woot:

I think it is time to hike interest rates immediately. 
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline K-S-U-Wildcats!

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So last year I refi'd to a 15yr conventional at 2.8 apr with a lender credit that slightly exceeded my closing costs. How'd i do compared to now?
I've said it before and I'll say it again, K-State fans could have beheaded the entire KU team at midcourt, and K-State fans would be celebrating it this morning.  They are the ISIS of Big 12 fanbases.

Offline sys

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So last year I refi'd to a 15yr conventional at 2.8 apr with a lender credit that slightly exceeded my closing costs. How'd i do compared to now?

good.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

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Yikes. Just think how bad this would look if Obama's "new normal" part time health insuranceless jobs weren't included. Double-Yikes!

But yeah, we're right where we were pre-recession, per BMW and other mouth breathing libtard lemmings
goEMAW Karmic BBS Shepherd

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Yikes. Just think how bad this would look if Obama's "new normal" part time health insuranceless jobs weren't included. Double-Yikes!

But yeah, we're right where we were pre-recession, per BMW and other mouth breathing libtard lemmings


Offline Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)

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Well that's sad as well.   :cry:
goEMAW Karmic BBS Shepherd

Offline Panjandrum

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DROP! DROP! DROP! DROP! DROP!

 :Woot:

I'm looking for a new house in April, sd, so I get excited when you get excited.


Offline steve dave

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So last year I refi'd to a 15yr conventional at 2.8 apr with a lender credit that slightly exceeded my closing costs. How'd i do compared to now?

that's a great rate. I also got a 15 a couple years ago at rates that can't be found now. I should have just built a house then. COMING DOWN, THO!  :Woot: