Author Topic: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread  (Read 149284 times)

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Online wetwillie

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Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3425 on: August 24, 2017, 07:56:11 PM »
So scientists are biased but Climate Depot isn't?

Don't be dense, climate depot simply posted the full article from a publication that's normally behind a pay wall.





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Offline renocat

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Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3426 on: August 29, 2017, 05:36:47 AM »
Well here comes the Professor Chicken Littles, and their scientific sensationalism about climate change on the heels of a storm.  They lose any credibility they have.  From CBS news ......

While scientists are quick to say climate change didn't cause Harvey and that they haven't determined yet whether the storm was made worse by global warming, they do note that warmer air and water mean wetter and possibly more intense hurricanes in the future.

"This is the kind of thing we are going to get more of," said Princeton University climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer. "This storm should serve as warning."

There's a scientifically accepted method for determining if some wild weather event has the fingerprints of man-made climate change, and it involves intricate calculations. Those could take weeks or months to complete, and then even longer to pass peer review.

Hogwash.


Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3428 on: August 29, 2017, 06:58:09 AM »
The Word of God!

4th Cat 4 or above Hurricane to hit US in last 48 years.  Prior to that in the previous time period of similar length, 14.   12 years without a land falling major hurricane (also global warming BTW). 

Houston itself has been flooded numerous times over the last 200 years, including recording water 54 feet deep in Buffalo Bayou in 1935. 

Texas has been hit by hundreds of Tropical Storms including multiple major hurricanes.

What won't be discussed as it should is the concept of building a megalopolis at 80 feet (or less) above sea level and then directing its Major drainage systems towards downtown. 

As long as the coastal areas are allowed to be built up like they are then there's going to be more events like this.   

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Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3429 on: August 29, 2017, 07:28:33 AM »
This isn't mother natures fault, it's the citizens of Houston.

-Dax

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Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3430 on: August 29, 2017, 08:16:50 AM »
The Word of God!

4th Cat 4 or above Hurricane to hit US in last 48 years.  Prior to that in the previous time period of similar length, 14.   12 years without a land falling major hurricane (also global warming BTW). 

Houston itself has been flooded numerous times over the last 200 years, including recording water 54 feet deep in Buffalo Bayou in 1935. 

Texas has been hit by hundreds of Tropical Storms including multiple major hurricanes.

What won't be discussed as it should is the concept of building a megalopolis at 80 feet (or less) above sea level and then directing its Major drainage systems towards downtown. 

As long as the coastal areas are allowed to be built up like they are then there's going to be more events like this.

I guess we could just tell people they can't live near the coasts, but we'd be giving up a whole lot of GDP to do that.

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3431 on: August 29, 2017, 09:26:21 AM »
This isn't mother natures fault, it's the citizens of Houston.

-Dax

Yeah, that's what I said downgrade.

Again, never tell anyone you went to K-State.


Offline cfbandyman

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Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3432 on: August 29, 2017, 10:02:50 AM »
Dax is so easy to disprove

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_4_Atlantic_hurricanes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes

Cat 4

Hurricane frequency
Period   Number   Number per year
1851–1900   13   0.26
1901–1950   29   0.58
1951–1975   22   0.88
1976–2000   24   0.96
2001–present   21   1.4

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Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3433 on: August 29, 2017, 10:10:18 AM »
Dax enjoys qualifiers
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Offline cfbandyman

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Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3434 on: August 29, 2017, 10:17:01 AM »
Dax enjoys qualifiers

Which are *made landfall in the US. All the lists for both Cat 4 and Cat 5 prove the #s and frequency increase over time
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Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3435 on: August 29, 2017, 10:20:15 AM »
Maybe he forgot which qualifiers infowars was using, ever think of that?
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Offline mocat

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Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3436 on: August 29, 2017, 10:47:25 AM »
Quote
Climate change may have helped Harvey to form and intensify

This year saw high sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, where Harvey formed. According to an analysis published in March, the Gulf stayed above 73 degrees Fahrenheit the entire winter.

At the time Harvey intensified into a Category 4 hurricane, it was over a section of the Gulf that was about 4 degrees above normal, says Martin Hoerling, a research meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Boulder, Colo.

"The water in the Gulf of Mexico is the heat reservoir to support these hurricanes," says Ben Kirtman, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Miami. The warm water and air above the Gulf means there's more energy to drive a storm such as Harvey.

Kirtman says that doesn't mean Harvey was directly caused by climate change. Rather, climate change is shaping conditions for storms like this one. So if Harvey was a 1-in-100-year storm, for example, "maybe it becomes a storm that could happen one in 50 years, or one in 20 years, or one in 10 years," Kirtman says.

But climate change isn't completely responsible for the devastation

The key feature that makes Harvey so devastating is that it stalled out over Texas. It lingered in the same region for days, dumping rainfall over Houston that is being measured in feet, not inches.

Hoerling says that meandering storms appear to be a feature of the region. Tropical storms Claudette in 1979 and Allison in 2001 also created enormous rainfall totals because of their slow-moving characters.

And the biggest contributor might be a different man-made factor

Hoerling says the growth of the Houston metropolitan area may have a far larger influence on the storm's effects than climate change. Houston has been booming since the mid-2000s, and its ever-expanding suburbs have meant fewer natural barriers for heavy rainfall.

"As the suburbs have grown, pavement has spread," he says. That increases runoff and makes it difficult for the flat metropolitan area to drain. "The rate at which that water has to be dealt with is different than it was 40 years ago."

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3437 on: August 29, 2017, 12:27:24 PM »
Hey candyman, has technology improved any over the last 100-120 years?

I know resident libs much prefer to play around with broadbrushed unqualified statistics, but when it comes to storms like this it's important to  qualify based on the region.   Give it try sometime.
 

It's weird, but not unexpected that lib always knows way more about what Infowars is saying than I do (or anybody else on this board for that matter).   

So, can anyone answer what PPM we need to be at in order to not make storms like Harvey dump so much moisture (even though had Harvey not stalled it would have still have likely dumped the same amount of moisture, just not as much in the same spot)?   






Offline cfbandyman

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Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3438 on: August 29, 2017, 12:55:50 PM »
Hey candyman, has technology improved any over the last 100-120 years?

I know resident libs much prefer to play around with broadbrushed unqualified statistics, but when it comes to storms like this it's important to  qualify based on the region.   Give it try sometime.
 

It's weird, but not unexpected that lib always knows way more about what Infowars is saying than I do (or anybody else on this board for that matter).   

So, can anyone answer what PPM we need to be at in order to not make storms like Harvey dump so much moisture (even though had Harvey not stalled it would have still have likely dumped the same amount of moisture, just not as much in the same spot)?

You're not shifting this argument bad person. You cherry picked and lost. Try again next time.
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Offline renocat

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Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3439 on: August 29, 2017, 02:27:21 PM »
Every dang weather disaster and every malady known to  man is attributed to the  pseudo science.of global alarmism.  Don't blame God for hurricanes.  He created a perfect world watered by mist.  Then wango, eve got devil seduced and gullible Adam woman stoopid.  God kicked em out of paradise, and the world including the weather went screwy.

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Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3440 on: August 29, 2017, 02:28:55 PM »
That's not real bud, hate to tell you
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Offline Cartierfor3

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Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3441 on: August 29, 2017, 04:12:06 PM »
man, i never get tired of the renocat sock

Offline EMAWican

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Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3442 on: August 30, 2017, 09:12:20 AM »
It's fascinating to go back a week or so and read what the meteorologists "forecasted" and weather centers "predicted" about Harvey and then compare to what actually and unfortunately happened (55% of the time they're right 85%?). We still can't accurately forecast/predict common reoccurring weather events like rain, clouds, air temp, etc., but climate "scientists" can immediately claim that climate change had a substantial effect on Harvey.

 :lol:
 

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Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3443 on: August 30, 2017, 09:19:30 AM »
Are you intentionally being a dumbass? Just wondering
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Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3444 on: August 30, 2017, 09:29:11 AM »
Science helps us to understand why things happen, but historical is woefully inadequate is explaining the mystery of the everything.  This makes people who worship humanism cringe.  Science is their gospel, and it's infallible.  They forget science emanates from the minds of humans.  Humans that that come from the Church of Humankind.  What evil things do humans do to other human?  I gladly stand with God.  Climate change hysteria is the tool humanists are trying to use to control mankind.

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Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3445 on: August 30, 2017, 09:30:43 AM »
Emawican seems to be being purposefully dense. I would suggest you do a little critical thinking with your responses. Predicting the future of weather will always be more difficult than mapping trends that have already occurred.

But to be fair, every interview I have heard the interviewer was really pressing for the tie in with climate change and the expert was usually able to say something like, "it most definitely could be related to climate change." Though an expert they had on (NPR) said that the slowness of the storm (which is what is making it so devastating) has nothing to do with climate change.

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Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3446 on: August 30, 2017, 09:31:44 AM »
Historically, god has been a much more effective tool to control mankind
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Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3447 on: August 30, 2017, 09:49:34 AM »
Historically, god has been a much more effective tool to control mankind
True.  Very true.  Evil uses good.  Probably why their is so much hate and loathing towards Christianity.   Man likes to find vehicles to use to control others.

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Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3448 on: August 30, 2017, 10:12:17 AM »
Though an expert they had on (NPR) said that the slowness of the storm (which is what is making it so devastating) has nothing to do with climate change.

Yes, pretty obvs just observing the weather:  High pressure parked over the plains, low pressure to the east over Ohio/Tennessee valleys created a northerly air flow between them pointed straight at east Texas blocking Harvey's pressure center from moving northeastward.

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Re: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread
« Reply #3449 on: August 30, 2017, 10:13:28 AM »
Emawican seems to be being purposefully dense. I would suggest you do a little critical thinking with your responses. Predicting the future of weather will always be more difficult than mapping trends that have already occurred.

But to be fair, every interview I have heard the interviewer was really pressing for the tie in with climate change and the expert was usually able to say something like, "it most definitely could be related to climate change." Though an expert they had on (NPR) said that the slowness of the storm (which is what is making it so devastating) has nothing to do with climate change.

I'll be. Lucky for us we can easily predict the future of climate change by mapping trends that have already occurred.

Interesting that the experts aren't noting that the rise in Cat 4 and 5 hurricanes the last several decades also follows the advances in technology, and specifically satellite tech.