Author Topic: ChAMOY 2017  (Read 9085 times)

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Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #25 on: November 17, 2017, 01:38:42 PM »
The Eers tried to give the cats the game in the first half, but an inept offense didn't take advantage of all of these miscues. Skylar comes back to the Groundlar and cant't lead the offense to cash in more than 3 points on 4 turnovers and the special teams handing the offense great field position time after time.

PREDICTO:
West Virginia20
Kansas State22

ACTUAL:
West Virginia28
Kansas State23

It was almost the 2 points victory that ChAMOY expected.

WEEK 11 UPDATE

Top 25


So, I have thought it about more and more, and I realize that I do in fact need to penalize for losses.  I needed a way to differentiate between two teams with equally good wins, but one team has a loss to a great team and the other a loss to a bad team.  Starting now losses are folded into the accomplishment score.   

As expected, Alabama had jumped up the ranks and (if they continue to win) they will likely easily make it into the top four.  Oklahoma is also looking pretty if they win out.  Winner of the ACC deserves to get into the playoff as well. The Big Ten looks to be on the outside looking in.

Big 12


KSU sits on an island, it had a chance to join WVU, Texas, and Tech.  Kansas is decrepit and the worst p5 team just below Illinois (#118).

Why is Tech getting up to #29?  Well they have 2 solid wins which helps them a lot.  Despite the L, they also played pretty well against OSU and WVU.

KSU games (raw)


KSU games (adj)


Second best defensive performance of the year! But third worst offensive performance :(.  Inconstant cats.  Once again ST means basically nothing if you can't cash them in.

Week 11 (eleven) Match-Up


Hoo boy.  We're decided underdogs for sure.

Oklahoma State games (raw)


Oklahoma State games (adj)


Okie State has really only beaten on very good team (ISU).  So maybe we can steal one? Wishful thinking probably.

PREDICTIOOOOOON
Oklahoma State45
Kansas State12

Cats have a 7% likelihood of winning.

Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #26 on: November 30, 2017, 04:00:01 PM »
Sorry about skipping a week guys and gals. Turkeying and all...

WEEK 13

End of the regular season and on to the championship games (and other games no one really cares that much about).

Top 25

Seems reasonable to me. I think Miami is probably a bit overrated by people.

If ChAMOY determined the 4 teams in the playoffs it would be:
1) Oklahoma vs 4) Alabama
2) Clemson vs 3) Wisconsin

(Auburn might have a fighting chance ti squeeze in if they win / Clemson loses...).  If we did it by the playoff rules I would prefer (p5 champs + highest non-p5 (not ND) + 2 at large)

projecting out conference winners

1) Oklahoma [1] vs 8)Stanford [16]
3) Wisconsin [3] vs 6) Alabama [4]
4) Georgia [5] vs 5) Ohio State [7]
2) Clemson [2] vs 7) UCF [10]

Those are some tasty games...:lick:

Big 12


I think it's not too much of a stretch to say that Texas, WVU, KSU, and Tech were all about tied for the 5th best team in the conference.  Iowa State should get some credit for some very high quality wins and I think they stand apart from this pack at 4.

Here are each teams best wins and worst losses:




KSU games (raw)


KSU games (adj)


A plot to show our progress throughout the season.  The blue dots are offense, the green defense, and the tan are special teams.


While we weren't a great team by any stretch, we only laid two big eggs this year: Vanderbilt and KU. Luckily only one ended in a loss.

Through it all the Cats ended up with
#39 offense
#64 defense
#10 special teams

If I were to only include P5 + ND teams, KSU ends up ranked 31 out of 65.


No surprise, but KU ends up last...

Offline cfbandyman

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #27 on: November 30, 2017, 05:10:45 PM »
(Auburn might have a fighting chance to squeeze in if they win / Clemson loses...).  If we did it by the playoff rules I would prefer (p5 champs + highest non-p5 (not ND) + 2 at large)

I would love this very much too.
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Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #28 on: December 07, 2017, 05:16:33 PM »
WEEK 14


Top 25
(slightly different format)


ChAMOY disagrees with the playoff committee and has OSU in at #4.  Frankly, Alabama just doesn't have a great win (all of the other playoff teams have at least one win over a top 10 team). Now it is true they only have a single loss, and to a #7 team, but look at Wisconsin...better wins AND a better loss.

If ChAMOY determined the 4 teams in the playoffs it would be:
1) Clemson vs 4) OSU
2) Oklahoma vs 3) Georgia

Honestly, this is how it should have been.

Ideal world scenario

1) Clemson[1] vs 8) USC[17]
3) Georgia [3] vs 6) Wisconsin [5]
4) Ohio State [4] vs 5) Alabama [6]
2) Oklahoma[2] vs 7) UCF [10]

Those are some very very tasty games...:lick:

After a full season (minus bowl games) the cats ended up with
#42 offense
#64 defense
#9 special teams

If I were to only include P5 + ND teams, KSU ends up ranked 33 out of 65.

BOWL GAME MATCHUP:


Two teams with almost identically the same offensive efficiency, but that Cats have a very slight edge in defense and a BIG edge in special teams.

ULCA info:
raw stats:


adjusted:


CACTUS BOWL PREDICTO:
46 Kansas State31
57 UCLA28

Quite appropriately our FG unit secures a victory.

Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #29 on: January 09, 2018, 02:16:22 PM »
End of the year!

Top 25


No surprise, Alabama ends up on top.  UCF ends up cracking the top 10 at 9.  Penn State ended the year as a very formidable team, second only to Alabama in totalE.



Cats end up the 6th best team in the conference squeaking past WVU.

Here's a look at the P5 conferences:

This is a grid showing where the teams from each conference end up the ranks (better teams are on the left).

People love to debate what the best conference was, but "best" is often ill-defined. Is it highest average ranking? In that case the ACC gets the nod (avg ~ 45).  On the other hand, the Big Ten and SEC had three teams each in the top 10, while the ACC had only one.    By most accounts, the conference that was step behind was the Pac-12.

Offline Trim

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #30 on: January 09, 2018, 02:23:06 PM »
The OSU win was astonishing.

Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #31 on: January 09, 2018, 02:39:10 PM »

Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #32 on: January 09, 2018, 02:41:04 PM »
KSU beat 2 teams better than itself (Okie State and ISU) and lost to 2 teams worse (WVU and Vanderbilt).

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #33 on: January 09, 2018, 02:45:08 PM »
It was a low-level rollercoaster of a season, maybe the zambezi zinger.

Offline DQ12

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #34 on: January 09, 2018, 03:23:34 PM »
I understand all of the variables except for the last 3.  I see that X is the average between the accomplishment factor and win percentage factor, but how is ACC calculated and how is win% calculated?

Looking at the big 12 numbers, the only thing that really jumps out at me is how far KU is from the rest of the pack on both offense and defense.  Roughly a quarter of a point worse than the next worst offenses and defenses.  Also they had the worst special teams in the league.

Can you show us oregon state's numbers?  They must have been abysmal.


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Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #35 on: January 09, 2018, 04:28:20 PM »
I understand all of the variables except for the last 3.  I see that X is the average between the accomplishment factor and win percentage factor, but how is ACC calculated and how is win% calculated?
win% is computed using only totalE.   Its my objective measure of "quality" for a team and I think it tends to model the expected win % of a team if it played against an "average" opponent.  So I would expect Alabama with a a win% of 0.99 to win 99 times out of 100 against teams ranked around 65.  Again this is based purely on the efficiency numbers of the team (post adjustments for opponent of course).

ACC is gained by wins and lost by losses. The better a team you beat the more you get, and the worse a team you lose to the more you is subtracted.  It's not a linear scale, roughly speaking beating a top 4 team is worth almost twice beating a team tanked #25.  Similarly, losing to a sub-100 team is worth 5 times as much as losing to #10.    A win against a sub-100 team get you nothing, and a loss to a top 8 team costs very little.

Quote
Looking at the big 12 numbers, the only thing that really jumps out at me is how far KU is from the rest of the pack on both offense and defense.  Roughly a quarter of a point worse than the next worst offenses and defenses.  Also they had the worst special teams in the league.

Can you show us oregon state's numbers?  They must have been abysmal.
KU barely squeezed past Oregon State based mainly on conference strength (or lack thereof in Pac-12's case)



Raw #:


Adj:




Offline CHONGS

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #36 on: January 09, 2018, 04:32:59 PM »
That's hard to see, this might be better:


Offline DQ12

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #37 on: January 09, 2018, 04:34:36 PM »
Fascinating stuff.  I've been meaning to devise a ranking system of my own for years.  Maybe during the offseason I'll try to gain the wherewithal to put something together. 


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Offline cfbandyman

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #38 on: January 09, 2018, 06:36:21 PM »
KSU beat 2 teams better than itself (Okie State and ISU) and lost to 2 teams worse (WVU and Vanderbilt).

And those 2 loses are definitely the two that I wish we had back. I still think we could've/should've beat Texas but that loss does describe me as WTF-y. Especially since that was the game Ertz got hurt in.
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Offline Gooch

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #39 on: January 11, 2018, 12:58:53 PM »
It was a low-level rollercoaster of a season, maybe the zambezi zinger.
How dare you? The Zambezi Zinger was easily upper middle level. No Orient Express but it held its own.

Offline Katpappy

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #40 on: January 11, 2018, 01:19:37 PM »
It was a low-level rollercoaster of a season, maybe the zambezi zinger.
How dare you? The Zambezi Zinger was easily upper middle level. No Orient Express but it held its own.
I loved the fact that when riding the Zinger you never knew when it would break down.  I remember one time being stuck upside down and another in the tunnel. 
Hot time in Kat town tonight.

Offline Trim

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #41 on: January 11, 2018, 01:36:11 PM »
It was a low-level rollercoaster of a season, maybe the zambezi zinger.
How dare you? The Zambezi Zinger was easily upper middle level. No Orient Express but it held its own.

It didn't even require seatbelts.

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #42 on: January 11, 2018, 01:36:26 PM »
I loved the fact that when riding the Zinger you never knew when it would break down.  I remember one time being stuck upside down and another in the tunnel. 

:dubious:

Offline Gooch

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #43 on: January 11, 2018, 04:03:41 PM »
I loved the fact that when riding the Zinger you never knew when it would break down.  I remember one time being stuck upside down and another in the tunnel. 

:dubious:
:lol: Katdaddy doesn't know his Zambezi Zigger from his EXT.

Offline Katpappy

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #44 on: January 11, 2018, 06:45:23 PM »
I loved the fact that when riding the Zinger you never knew when it would break down.  I remember one time being stuck upside down and another in the tunnel. 

:dubious:
:lol: Katdaddy doesn't know his Zambezi Zigger from his EXT.

Was it not the green one with trees all around it?  OK I was adding a little about the upside down part, but we were stuck for over an hour in a very uncomfortable position.   
Hot time in Kat town tonight.

Offline Skipper44

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #45 on: January 12, 2018, 07:23:33 AM »
I loved the fact that when riding the Zinger you never knew when it would break down.  I remember one time being stuck upside down and another in the tunnel. 

:dubious:
:lol: Katdaddy doesn't know his Zambezi Zigger from his EXT.
he is thinking of the Zulu