Author Topic: We're only favored by one?  (Read 2602 times)

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Offline I_have_purplewood

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We're only favored by one?
« on: March 24, 2018, 10:12:49 AM »

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

But deep down I'm really :ohno: :ohno: :runaway: :runaway: :ohno: :ohno:


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Fifteen minutes later, when the Kansas locker room opened its doors to the media, the Jayhawks were still crying. Literally, bawling. All of them. I've never seen anything like it, and I've seen devastated college locker rooms -- after losses in the Final Four, the national championship game -- ever

The Big Train

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Re: We're only favored by one?
« Reply #1 on: March 24, 2018, 10:28:10 AM »
I’m betting 2 LTC farms on this all day long. :emawkid:

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: We're only favored by one?
« Reply #2 on: March 24, 2018, 10:50:24 AM »
My breakdown for Loyola.

K-State will be facing another hot team in Loyola Chicago. The Ramblers have won 13 straight and 20 of their last 21 games. Similar to Creighton, Loyola is one of the better shooting teams in the country, ranking #7 in eFG% at 57.8% while shooting 56.6% on 2s (#12) and 39.9% on 3s (#15). However, they shoot fewer threes, with only 35.7% of their shots (#217) coming from behind the arc. They can be turnover prone with a rate of 18.8% (#209) and aren’t a great offensive rebounding team at only 22.3% (#332). Their offense features a lot of read and react philosophy, namely a 4 out 1 in that focuses on driving to the paint with kickouts and some ball screens mixed in. The constant movement with multiple guards and guys that can score it will make them tough to guard as their 1.12 efficiency (#67) would indicate.

Defensively the Ramblers are mainly a man team that will occasionally mix in a 2-3 zone. They have been solid all year, allowing only 0.96 efficiency (#24) led by great eFG% defense at 47.6% (#35). Opponents shoot 46.9% on 2s (#56) without a great block percentage (6.6% - #290) and only 32.6% on 3s (#36). They are also decent at forcing TOs (19.8% - #85) and keeping opponents off the offensive glass (25.8% - #55). Finally, opponents only get to the FT line at a rate of 25.3% (#15).

Loyola likes to play at a slow pace with only 65.1 possessions per game (#319), with an identically 18.3 seconds per possession on offense and defense. In the last 6 games through the MVC tournament and the NCAAs, all do or die games for the Ramblers, the pace has slowed even more to only 61.8 possessions per game. The offense has cooled off a bit in that stretch to only 1.02 efficiency, but the defense has stiffened to only 0.93 allowed.

Loyola features 5 guys that all score in double figures for the season, so match ups will be interesting for K-State and team defense will be at a premium. Guards Clayton Custer (6-0), Marcus Townes (6-4), and Donte Ingram (6-6) all average 11 or better while forwards Cameron Krutwig (6-9) and Aundre Jackson (6-5) both average over 10. Ben Richardson (6-3) and Lucas Williamson (6-4) also contribute. In MVC games only, Custer bumped to over 15 per game and Krutwig over 12, but in the last 6 the leading scorers have been Jackson at nearly 11, and Townes and Ingram at just over 10 each. Custer has struggled a little bit down the stretch. Jackson has been Loyola’s version of Teddy Allen (from WVU) as a guy that only plays about 20 minutes, but gives instant offense with a points per 100 rate leading the team in the mid 30s, mainly on 2s. Custer and Ingram are the best 3PT shooters, but Richardson and Townes are also threats and Williams has hit some shots lately.

I’d guess we’ll start Barry on Custer, as he makes the Ramblers go, with Sneed on Ingram. Diarra, Kam, and McGuirl can rotate on Richardson, Townes, and Williamson, while Mak and Stockard will get the match up with Krutwig and Jackson. Sneed can slide down on Jackson if we are going really small or get foul trouble. If Dean is getting some minutes, Krutwig isn’t a bad match either as he won’t be able to attack with near the quickness that we saw from Kentucky’s bigs. Also, we’ll be switching a lot against Loyola’s guard movement, so our guys will be forced to guard nearly all of Loyola’s roster.

Defensively, Loyola is a solid man to man team, but we should be able to get to the rim and finish much better than we did against Kentucky, especially without the length or a rim protector. K-State only hit 10-32 on 2s on Thursday (31.3%) and we should be able to hit 2s at a 50% or better clip on Saturday. We’ll need to hit some 3s, but we won’t have to rely on the outside shot like we did vs Kentucky.

The main numbers to watch will be keeping Loyola under a .95 efficiency (they are 1-4 when held to that this year) and under 50% on 2s (they are 3-4). It’s a bit hard to judge their schedule, as they only played 1 regular season game against a Top 100 team, but that one was a win at Florida. The biggest key in that game was Florida settling for 3s and only making 2 out of 19 attempts. I really think K-State's defense will come to play and be able to hold Loyola under 1.00 efficiency and probably even better. We're going to see another grinder game and it will come down to how efficient K-State can be on offense. I still believe Barry is primed for a break out scoring game and perhaps Mak finally approaches production similar to the Big 12 tournament against a smaller Loyola front line.

K-State 60 - Loyola 52

Offline MadCat

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Re: We're only favored by one?
« Reply #3 on: March 24, 2018, 11:00:48 AM »
Yahoo! Sports app shows Loyola favored by one. :dunno:

The Big Train

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Re: We're only favored by one?
« Reply #4 on: March 24, 2018, 11:05:18 AM »
Great breakdown _FAN.  Since they like to play slower that plays into our advantage big time with our defense.  We play solid defense and they play slow that limits their offense a lot and like you predicted _FAN I see a really low scoring game too.

Offline 114Hickory

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Re: We're only favored by one?
« Reply #5 on: March 24, 2018, 11:10:52 AM »
Thanks for the excellent analysis and breakdown.

Offline tdaver

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Re: We're only favored by one?
« Reply #6 on: March 24, 2018, 11:14:24 AM »
:emawkid:

Online catastrophe

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Re: We're only favored by one?
« Reply #7 on: March 24, 2018, 11:15:35 AM »
Yahoo! Sports app shows Loyola favored by one. :dunno:

When the line is -1, does it even matter?

Online steve dave

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Re: We're only favored by one?
« Reply #8 on: March 24, 2018, 11:15:49 AM »
Thanks FAN, appreciate you


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Online catastrophe

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Re: We're only favored by one?
« Reply #9 on: March 24, 2018, 11:17:02 AM »
One thing I missed, what is KSU’s defensive efficiency this year and this tournament?

Offline Dugout DickStone

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Re: We're only favored by one?
« Reply #10 on: March 24, 2018, 11:24:27 AM »
Thanks fan!

Offline wetwillie

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Re: We're only favored by one?
« Reply #11 on: March 24, 2018, 11:29:23 AM »
_Fan(tastic)
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline I_have_purplewood

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Re: We're only favored by one?
« Reply #12 on: March 24, 2018, 11:35:05 AM »
Thank you for not having another p-wood thread flop, fan!  :ksu:
Fifteen minutes later, when the Kansas locker room opened its doors to the media, the Jayhawks were still crying. Literally, bawling. All of them. I've never seen anything like it, and I've seen devastated college locker rooms -- after losses in the Final Four, the national championship game -- ever

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: We're only favored by one?
« Reply #13 on: March 24, 2018, 12:44:47 PM »
One thing I missed, what is KSU’s defensive efficiency this year and this tournament?

0.819

Offline stunted

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Re: We're only favored by one?
« Reply #14 on: March 24, 2018, 02:23:54 PM »
they got thrashed by milwaukee  by 17, thrashed by boise state by 34, lost to 13-18 indiana state at home. we would be undefeated with their schedule.

Offline Stevesie60

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Re: We're only favored by one?
« Reply #15 on: March 24, 2018, 02:54:51 PM »
It terrifies me that Vegas is begging people to bet on the Cats.

Offline Mels Fish Bowl

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Re: We're only favored by one?
« Reply #16 on: March 24, 2018, 03:29:29 PM »
I've noticed the spread anywhere from pickem to 'Cats -1.5 & over/under 126.5
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Offline 8manpick

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Re: We're only favored by one?
« Reply #17 on: March 24, 2018, 04:46:30 PM »
I've noticed the spread anywhere from pickem to 'Cats -1.5 & over/under 126.5
I got even, also saw 126.5, I think it goes over, but I didn't touch that
:adios:

Offline joaks01

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Re: We're only favored by one?
« Reply #18 on: March 24, 2018, 04:51:28 PM »
It terrifies me that Vegas is begging people to bet on the Cats.
A lot of people are pretty high on the cinderella. I think the line is about right to get half the money on each side