Author Topic: The Official Bracketology Thread (Read 379591 times)

I_have_purplewood · « **Reply #2200 on:** February 24, 2018, 11:37:45 AM »

Quote from: ksu_FAN1 on February 22, 2018, 09:30:56 AM

Quote from: wetwillie on February 22, 2018, 09:27:52 AM
who is on the 7 line in that bracket matrix fan

Here's what I have.

Butler
Saint Mary's College
Texas A&M
Florida State

I took bracketmatrix projections from last night and tweaked it a little bit this time so some of those teams moved around a little bit.

This is what I'm having a hard time with. A&M will most likely finish under .500 in SEC but have several tier 1 wins (many tier 1 losses) and have nice SOS but they're only a 1 point favorite at Vandy today. St. Mary's lost to Washington St. for gods sake. I think the eye test should count for something?

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #2201 on:** February 25, 2018, 09:10:02 PM »

Sunday Night Update =

5 seeds - Ohio St, Kentucky, Rhode Island, Gonzaga
6 seeds - Michigan, Houston, Nevada, Florida
* Zags could be a 6 with that weak overall SOS
* Florida has 8/3 Q1-Q2 wins. 6 road/neutral Q1 wins

7 seeds- Arkansas TCU Seton Hall Butler
8 seeds- VTech OU Creighton Texas A&M
9 seeds - Mizzou, NC St, Ariz St, KState
* There is not much separation between these 12 teams.
* Tcu is #26, Cats are 36. But if we win Tuesday, I would have us ahead of them. That's how close it is despite 10 spots.

10 seeds - FSU, Alabama, Providence, Miami
11 seeds - St Bony, St Mary's, USC, Texas, Syracuse, Baylor

kso_FAN · « **Reply #2202 on:** February 26, 2018, 06:52:14 AM »

DQ12 · « **Reply #2203 on:** February 26, 2018, 08:20:22 AM »

Our SOS dropped after playing OU again?

kso_FAN · « **Reply #2204 on:** February 26, 2018, 08:54:28 AM »

Quote from: Dlew12 on February 26, 2018, 08:20:22 AM

Our SOS dropped after playing OU again?

Yes, slightly. Probably has to do with a lot of the other games as much as anything with the RPI mechanics. Every other metric has us in at least the mid 40s.

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #2205 on:** February 26, 2018, 12:26:08 PM »

It's been mentioned that KState & VTech have similar profiles. Fsu also is strikingly similar to Ksu/VT.
Florida St still gets more love. They project out to a 8 seed on average by BracketMatrix, while Ksu/VTech are 10 seeds. (Lunardi has FSU 7, Ksu/Tech 10)

Record/ Conference=
Ksu 20-9 9-7
VT 20-9 9-7
FSU 19-9 8-8

NonCon SOS/ Overall SOS
Ksu 323 76
VT 325 75
FSU 317 77

Q1 & Q2 Record=
Ksu 3-8/ 6-0
VT 5-5/3-3
FSU 5-5/2-2

Road/Neutral wins vs Q1/Q2 =
Ksu 5 road
VT 4 Road, 1 Neutral
FSU 3 road

Losses vs Q3 =
Ksu 1
VT 1
FSU 2

VTech has the most impressive Q1 wins (at Virginia, UNC, Clemson). That's why I think they are ahead of KState. Fsu has the worst Conference record, the fewest Quality wins away from home, and most Q3 losses.

sys · « **Reply #2206 on:** February 26, 2018, 12:48:58 PM »

those q1/q2 records don't really look similar at all.

catastrophe · « **Reply #2207 on:** February 26, 2018, 12:53:36 PM »

Yeah, I am legitimately curious how the committee balances Q1 wins vs Q2 losses. If KSU keeps that line perfect it would be a great way to gauge. I'm guessing that this may be one of the hardest years to predict seeding with the new tier emphasis.

cat97 · « **Reply #2208 on:** February 26, 2018, 01:13:27 PM »

Thanks for all of the information in the last half dozen posts or so. I appreciate the effort that went into these facts.

We look to be in pretty good shape but need one more win to seal a bid and two or three will give us a chance at a higher seed.

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #2209 on:** February 26, 2018, 02:35:11 PM »

There are different ways how to evaluate Q1/Q2 wins. I tend to look at a Q1 win being equal to 1.5 Q2 wins. So I think having 3/6 is slightly better that 5/2 on the Q1/Q2 wins. You can look at exactly who the Q1-Q2 wins are and that may favor one team more in a comparison.

All of our losses (except Tulsa) are Q1 losses. VT had 3, FSU had 2 losses in the Q2 Tier. That's an advantage for us, but I don't think it's a major advantage.

Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) · « **Reply #2210 on:** February 26, 2018, 07:11:08 PM »

Shouldn't Tulsa be a Q2 loss?

catastrophe · « **Reply #2211 on:** February 26, 2018, 07:49:52 PM »

Tulsa counts as a home game, but I think they could still end up as a Q2 by the end of the season.

catastrophe · « **Reply #2212 on:** February 26, 2018, 07:52:38 PM »

Here they are again (just as much for my reference):

[attachment deleted by admin]

catastrophe · « **Reply #2213 on:** February 26, 2018, 08:07:09 PM »

Va Tech just locked up a bid for themselves. Pretty wtf meltdown for Duke.

Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) · « **Reply #2214 on:** February 26, 2018, 08:18:03 PM »

Quote from: catastrophe on February 26, 2018, 07:49:52 PM

Tulsa counts as a home game, but I think they could still end up as a Q2 by the end of the season.

How the hell is that a home game?

kso_FAN · « **Reply #2215 on:** February 26, 2018, 08:23:53 PM »

Quote from: Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) on February 26, 2018, 08:18:03 PM

Quote from: catastrophe on February 26, 2018, 07:49:52 PM
Tulsa counts as a home game, but I think they could still end up as a Q2 by the end of the season.

How the hell is that a home game?

If the school handles the ticket sales, its a "home game" for that school.

Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) · « **Reply #2216 on:** February 26, 2018, 08:26:59 PM »

JFC, these rules are so easy to manipulate. We need to fite the "schedulers"

catastrophe · « **Reply #2217 on:** February 26, 2018, 08:36:27 PM »

It will probably mean fewer destination “home” games, but should encourage more home-home scheduling with decent schools.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #2218 on:** February 26, 2018, 08:38:32 PM »

Quote from: catastrophe on February 26, 2018, 08:36:27 PM

It will probably mean fewer destination “home” games, but should encourage more home-home scheduling with decent schools.

I doubt it. Its easier to get a lot of these games done if you do the neutral home game. Its the nature of scheduling, teams don't do many true home and home series anymore and I don't think it will change.

Powercat Posse · « **Reply #2219 on:** February 26, 2018, 08:59:36 PM »

tulsa 76 RPI
Tulsa 74 RPI
Yes on paper 1 equals Q2 loss, 1 is Q3 loss. The committee isnt gonna treat this game much differently with either scenario. If Tulsa had an RPI of 116, then it would be more harmful. It's not on the Q2-Q3 border.

OU RPI is 31 on ESPN.
Home win over RPI 31 / Home win over RPI 30 .... Little difference ( Q1 vs Q2 win)
Home win over RPI 30 / Home win over RPI 5 .... Bigger difference (same Q1 Tier)

Committee will just see our wins. They will know how good they are.
Home W = 19,31,52,70,97
Road W = 52,62,97,112,118
* Best 5 from each

MakeItRain · « **Reply #2220 on:** February 26, 2018, 10:30:21 PM »

Quote from: catastrophe on February 26, 2018, 08:36:27 PM

It will probably mean fewer destination “home” games, but should encourage more home-home scheduling with decent schools.

That isn't a new rule

420seriouscat69 · « **Reply #2221 on:** February 27, 2018, 10:28:26 AM »

Quote

Bubble Watch:

Should be in

Quote

Kansas State (20-9, 9-7 Big 12)
(BPI: 50 | SOS: 46 | SOR: 30 | RPI: 60)

The Wildcats would likely have seven or even eight at-large teams taken after them in the bracket if the field was announce today. So yes, the loss at Oklahoma was a missed opportunity, but no, it doesn't detract from the fact that oscar Weber's guys are in a good place.

Certainly, the Big 12 gives its members plenty of chances to improve their seed, and perhaps K-State can do just that with remaining games at TCU and at home against Baylor. A win in either contest would earn Kansas State an above-.500 finish in the nation's strongest conference.

Trim · « **Reply #2222 on:** February 27, 2018, 10:41:49 AM »

Quote from: ksu_FAN1 on February 26, 2018, 08:23:53 PM

Quote from: Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) on February 26, 2018, 08:18:03 PM
Quote from: catastrophe on February 26, 2018, 07:49:52 PM
Tulsa counts as a home game, but I think they could still end up as a Q2 by the end of the season.

How the hell is that a home game?

If the school handles the ticket sales, its a "home game" for that school.

Yep.

https://twitter.com/KStateMBB/status/946804352647393280

pissclams · « **Reply #2223 on:** February 27, 2018, 11:25:43 AM »

fellas- sit back, kick your legs up, and enjoy that “should be in” feeling...you’v earned it

catastrophe · « **Reply #2224 on:** February 27, 2018, 10:08:35 PM »

Ok, so what has to happen now for the Cats to lock up a non-first four bid?