Author Topic: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros  (Read 10910 times)

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Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #50 on: October 05, 2017, 06:40:42 AM »
Yes, acknowledging the half ass disjointed efforts of the last two games is clearly a demand for "Alabama type perfection".

247 Fitz is a great place I hear.

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #51 on: October 05, 2017, 09:17:11 AM »
I don't think UT is anything special on either side of the ball. Our run D is really good, so they probably won't score much. If our offense can sustain drives (biggest issue the last 2 games, imo), and our ST are solid, we should win.
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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #52 on: October 05, 2017, 09:38:11 AM »
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Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #53 on: October 05, 2017, 12:01:27 PM »
I don't think UT is anything special on either side of the ball. Our run D is really good, so they probably won't score much. If our offense can sustain drives (biggest issue the last 2 games, imo), and our ST are solid, we should win.

Settling for FGs kills the perception of offensive success. K-State scored on 7 of 10 meaningful drives before running out the clock on the last one. One FG that we settled for Baylor actually stopped us and McCrane made a tough kick from 49 yards. 2 of the other 3 drives ended up in clear dropped passes, 1 would have kept the drive going and 1 was a TD. The other drive ended in being stopped on run plays inside of the 10 yard line and indications are Ertz missed a cut off of a block that would've allowed him to score on that one.

The offense wasn't nearly as bad as everyone made it out to be. I know you can't have those plays back, but the Cats could've easily scored 12 more points by getting those 3 TDs instead of FGs and everyone probably feels good about a 45-20 win. That's why the results of the Baylor game don't freak me out too much, not finishing those drives is a) uncharacteristic of Dimel's offense and b) very fixable with slightly better execution.

Now, that doesn't discount the train wreck of an offense game that we had at Vanderbilt against what is obviously an average SEC team.

Offline Testy Westy

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #54 on: October 05, 2017, 12:38:36 PM »
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Offline cfbandyman

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #55 on: October 05, 2017, 12:40:05 PM »
I don't think UT is anything special on either side of the ball. Our run D is really good, so they probably won't score much. If our offense can sustain drives (biggest issue the last 2 games, imo), and our ST are solid, we should win.

Settling for FGs kills the perception of offensive success. K-State scored on 7 of 10 meaningful drives before running out the clock on the last one. One FG that we settled for Baylor actually stopped us and McCrane made a tough kick from 49 yards. 2 of the other 3 drives ended up in clear dropped passes, 1 would have kept the drive going and 1 was a TD. The other drive ended in being stopped on run plays inside of the 10 yard line and indications are Ertz missed a cut off of a block that would've allowed him to score on that one.

The offense wasn't nearly as bad as everyone made it out to be. I know you can't have those plays back, but the Cats could've easily scored 12 more points by getting those 3 TDs instead of FGs and everyone probably feels good about a 45-20 win. That's why the results of the Baylor game don't freak me out too much, not finishing those drives is a) uncharacteristic of Dimel's offense and b) very fixable with slightly better execution.

Now, that doesn't discount the train wreck of an offense game that we had at Vanderbilt against what is obviously an average SEC team.

This is after thinking about it what makes me feel better about the last two games. We are a better team than what has shown, and we have done it to ourselves much more than the other team doing it to us. Those are correctable, I don't think our WRs suck, they sure as hell didn't suck the first 2 games (and I know that was bad competition) but we just weren't inexplicably dropping passes in those games, and now we are. I think the WRs as a group are overthinking things and are trying too hard, instead of acting and making plays.

I do think though that is where I get a little miffed about the coaching, we should be running more high success rate passing plays (ie the damn drop passed for the TD that Zuber should've had) early in the game to get the confidence up, and get everyone more comfortable. WR screens, easy out patterns and the like should be what we do early. We need to set the guys up for success, not trying to go vertical or down the field from the get go.

We look the last two games like a team that is trying too hard and forcing things instead of letting things come as you draw it up.
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Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #56 on: October 05, 2017, 01:06:35 PM »
We look the last two games like a team that is trying too hard and forcing things instead of letting things come as you draw it up.

I think this is a rare thing for K-State teams. Similar to the 2012 team, I think this team had a bunch of confidence all offseason, but with that comes pressure to live up to their own expectations. I think that caused us to tighten up when we went to Vandy and it carried over into Baylor after the disappointment of that loss. I'm anxious to see how they come out in Austin because I really believe if they get some momentum back and play like they did late in the season last year, they could have a similar result with a comfortable win. If they continue to press and not take what is given to them (especially on offense) it will be a dogfight. I don't see UT blowing us out unless for some reason this team is actually in the process of completely falling apart after the Vandy loss, but I don't see that. I really saw more good things than bad after the Baylor game even though most of our fans seemed to think we were continuing to fall apart.

Offline pvegs

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #57 on: October 05, 2017, 02:10:02 PM »
We look the last two games like a team that is trying too hard and forcing things instead of letting things come as you draw it up.

I think this is a rare thing for K-State teams. Similar to the 2012 team, I think this team had a bunch of confidence all offseason, but with that comes pressure to live up to their own expectations. I think that caused us to tighten up when we went to Vandy and it carried over into Baylor after the disappointment of that loss. I'm anxious to see how they come out in Austin because I really believe if they get some momentum back and play like they did late in the season last year, they could have a similar result with a comfortable win. If they continue to press and not take what is given to them (especially on offense) it will be a dogfight. I don't see UT blowing us out unless for some reason this team is actually in the process of completely falling apart after the Vandy loss, but I don't see that. I really saw more good things than bad after the Baylor game even though most of our fans seemed to think we were continuing to fall apart.

yeah, man. this. i thought we looked fine against baylor. but then i'm also too busy to care, deeply.

Offline MadCat

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #58 on: October 05, 2017, 02:43:06 PM »
Cats 35
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Offline Pete

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #59 on: October 05, 2017, 03:01:49 PM »
Why does anyone think our WR's will start catching better starting now?

Offline Pete

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #60 on: October 05, 2017, 03:02:39 PM »
Did our coaches say "hey guys, after the first couple games when we got on you about the drops we didn't mean it, but now we do?"

Offline Pete

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #61 on: October 05, 2017, 03:03:01 PM »
Do we have new WR's?

Offline Trim

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #62 on: October 05, 2017, 03:18:48 PM »
Why does anyone think our WR's will start catching better starting now?

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Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #63 on: October 05, 2017, 03:23:21 PM »
The group of returning receivers (Pringle, Heath, Harris, Zuber) showed that they were a better group catching the ball last year. Last year those 4 had a catch rate of 59.3% (catches/targets), this year they are at 50.8%. Statistically it is much more likely they have a really good group of games to help that catch rate recover toward the norm. And you would expect improvement because they should be better at routes, Ertz should be better at throws, etc. just based on the experience. Its possible that as a group they could regress, but I don't think its likely.

Catch rate comparison:
Player   2017   2016   DIF
Byron Pringle   37.5%   47.0%   -9.5%
Dominique Heath   33.3%   69.2%   -35.9%
Isaiah Harris   45.5%   100.0%   -54.5%
Isaiah Zuber   68.0%   58.5%   9.5%
Total   50.8%   59.3%   -8.5%

Offline puniraptor

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #64 on: October 05, 2017, 03:29:35 PM »
Is the catch rate stat receptions/targets or does it incorporate drops domehow

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #65 on: October 05, 2017, 03:31:16 PM »
Is the catch rate stat receptions/targets or receptions/drops

Its receptions/targets. It doesn't completely factor in drops, but I think its a good measure to compare this year to last. The drops have had a big role in the regression IMO. I expect them to get better and move toward a norm of 60%. Again, I only compared the 4 main returners, but they have a significant number of our catches/targets for both seasons.

Offline kstatefan11

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #66 on: October 05, 2017, 04:13:37 PM »
This is why the CTR is big-time. Most evidence, visual and otherwise, points to this being an average-ish LHCBS team thus far. But all the other data points from outside actual games suggest otherwise: Returning QB? Check. Lots of other returners? Check. Strong finish to previous year? Check. Minimal coaching turnover? Check. Scoring  50 in first 2 games? Check. Starting confy play 1-0? Check. Legit pre-season hype and top 3 conference ranking? Check and check. I can't think of a LHCBS team with those demographics that didn't eventually have an unequivocally successful season.

The one major outlier is Vandy. For 9+ win seasons, 93 and 2011 would be the notable exceptions with wins over P5 schools on the road (neutral site Ws in 2000 and 2003). A lot of those teams had plenty of early season stinkers against weak competition, mostly at home-- 97 Ohio, 95 @Cincy, 2011 Eastern Kentucky, 2012 North Texas, 94 Rice (my first time watching the Cats in person), but escaped with Ws.

So is Vandy an anomaly and this is a great Snyder team the schedulemakers did no favors for?
Or is this team an anomaly among Snyder teams? (Unless calling this a LHCBS team is an inaccurate descriptor of coaching duties, which seems unlikely).
We may have our answer Saturday. Texas often serves as a litmus test for Snyder seasons, wins in 98, 99, 11, 12, 14, 16 with 02, 03 and 2010 as exceptions both ways, but Jared Brite and Vince Young aren't walking through that door. I guess CK kinda is, but still.
For now, I'll go with the former, as the preponderance of 25 years of evidence suggests. 27-20, Purples.

Offline CaliforniaLonghorn

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #67 on: October 05, 2017, 05:26:23 PM »
That is funny you mentioned Jared Brite.
That blocked kick in 2002 will always remain with me because I called the block before the kick was attempted.
Around that time UT was very good almost Frank Beamer Va Tech like at blocking kicks.
I remember because I was upset that I could not watch the rest of the game because I was the only one with a truck to help my sister move to Houston from Austin. I wanted to wait until Sunday morning but if I remember right a storm was going to hit that night . Right before we left I sitting in the cab of the truck listening to the game with my sister's BF and right before the kick was attempted I said UT would block the kick. I am trying to remember who blocked the kick.

Only time in my life I called a block kick. I have called missed FG's but never a blocked kick.
I had hope in my mind this season during the SC game on both FG attempts but truthfully did not think it would happen.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2017, 05:30:54 PM by CaliforniaLonghorn »

Offline catastrophe

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #68 on: October 05, 2017, 05:53:11 PM »
I don't see UT blowing us out unless for some reason this team is actually in the process of completely falling apart after the Vandy loss, but I don't see that. I really saw more good things than bad after the Baylor game even though most of our fans seemed to think we were continuing to fall apart.

If UT blows us out, it will be because of defensive scores. They have looked pretty scary recently.

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #69 on: October 05, 2017, 06:12:45 PM »
I don't see UT blowing us out unless for some reason this team is actually in the process of completely falling apart after the Vandy loss, but I don't see that. I really saw more good things than bad after the Baylor game even though most of our fans seemed to think we were continuing to fall apart.

If UT blows us out, it will be because of defensive scores. They have looked pretty scary recently.

shutting down isu is no easy task amirite son?


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Offline CaliforniaLonghorn

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #70 on: October 05, 2017, 06:43:17 PM »
I don't see UT blowing us out unless for some reason this team is actually in the process of completely falling apart after the Vandy loss, but I don't see that. I really saw more good things than bad after the Baylor game even though most of our fans seemed to think we were continuing to fall apart.

If UT blows us out, it will be because of defensive scores. They have looked pretty scary recently.

shutting down isu is no easy task amirite son?

If you listen to ISU fans before Thursday their offense was at a 2008 OU level because they scored 40+ points on a team that contained Penn State
Now, ISU claims their QB sucks, their OC needs to be fired and that they should beat UT every year in Ames and if they cannot then they need a coach who can.

So was it UT's D or was it ISU's offense
The facts point to UT's D cause they did the same thing to SJSU and SC.
There is also the Maryland game though.

On the other hand K State was shut down by Vandy...

Offline Pete

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #71 on: October 05, 2017, 07:21:59 PM »
We are solidly meh.

Offline Winters

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #72 on: October 05, 2017, 07:39:33 PM »
We are solidly meh.
Kind of disappointing. I've got 19-16 horns Saturday  :frown:
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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #73 on: October 06, 2017, 09:46:04 AM »
We are solidly meh.
Kind of disappointing. I've got 19-16 horns Saturday  :frown:

hmm, i think the king knows something that i don't.  i am going to revise my Longhorno Predictos El Scoros to 27-23 KATS


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Offline ChiComCat

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Re: Longhorno Predictos El Scoros
« Reply #74 on: October 06, 2017, 10:36:20 AM »
30-16 Wild Wildcats