Author Topic: ChAMOY 2017  (Read 1107 times)

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Offline Chingon

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ChAMOY 2017
« on: September 17, 2017, 03:36:03 PM »
CHingon's Adjusted Metrics, Omitting Yardage

A ranking system that is 100% objective. It combines the opponent adjusted efficiency stats for each team with an "accomplishment" factor that reflects the wins of said team. It disregards any numbers based on yards as essentially meaningless.

The quick and dirty rundown for efficiency

Compute a teams offensive efficiency by computing the number of points scored by the offense minus the number of points GIVEN UP by the offense (such as INT returns for TD) divided by the number of opportunities for the offense (drives).  The offense does NOT get credit for points from kickoff returns, punt returns, blocked punt returns, blocked FG returns, or any points scored by the defense.  It does however give the offense partial credit for a made FG.

Similarly the team's defensive efficiency is computed by the number of points allowed by the defense minus the number of points SCORED by the defense divided by the number of drives.  The defense is not held accountable for kickoff returns, etc or points given up by the offense. If is partially responsible for made FGs.

Special teams are given credit for (and held accountable for) any scores resulting from kickoffs, punts, blocked fgs.  They also get partial credit for made FGs. The number of points from special teams is divided by the number of opportunities they had.

In effect the efficiency numbers are the NET points scored by each group divided by the number of opportunities they had to score.  It's says how many points per opportunity this unit provides (or costs) the team.  These numbers are computed for each game.

For example, here are KSU's raw efficiency numbers for the first three games:



The efficiency numbers for each game are adjusted by taking into the account the opponent's average efficiency numbers (calculated from all games except the one being played) as compared to the FBS average.  In a sense it portrays how the units would have performed against an average counter-unit.

Here are KSU's adjusted efficiencies:



So looking at the Vanderbilt game, KSU's offense played in a manner that would have resulted in 2.15 ppo if the game was against an avg defense.  It kinda lets you compare across games and takes into account the opponent.

The quick and dirty rundown for accomplishment
A team can only gain accomplishment points for wins (losses are irrelevant).  The better the team the more points. The accomplishment points are re-scaled to run from 0 to 1. 

ChAMOY ranking is determined by combining total adjusted efficiency (offense - defense + st/4) and acc.

Here is the Top 25 (its a bit crazy because some teams have still only played one game -- this is hurting Alabama because FSU is a no win team right now)


Just the Big 12:


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Offline The Big Train

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2017, 06:57:09 PM »
Did you make this or take it from somewhere else?  What did you use to generate these stats?
KU football is a sleeping giant and always has been - beems

If LHC Bill Snyder had been hired at KU years ago, we'd have a national championship in football and a couple more BCS bowls. - beems

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2017, 09:31:19 PM »
I made it.

Used ideas from https://github.com/BlueSCar/cfb-data to get play by play from games.

Offline The Big Train

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2017, 09:41:43 PM »
I made it.

Used ideas from https://github.com/BlueSCar/cfb-data to get play by play from games.

 :thumbs:

I will check this out.  In college several buddies and I did a college fantasy football league by hand.  We talked about it this year before the season started but nobody wanted to pull stats manually, I could build from this.
KU football is a sleeping giant and always has been - beems

If LHC Bill Snyder had been hired at KU years ago, we'd have a national championship in football and a couple more BCS bowls. - beems

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #4 on: September 26, 2017, 06:56:21 PM »
Week 4 Update:

Top 25


Big 12


KSU games (raw)


KSU games (adj)


This week's matchup


PREDICTION


 :Woot: :Woot: :Woot: :Woot:

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2017, 04:56:32 PM »
WEEK 5 UPDATE

Top 25


Big 12


KSU Games (raw)


KSU Games (adj)


WEEK SIX (6) MATCH UP


A battle between two evenly matched and average teams. Looks to be a low scoring struggle again for our intrepid cats.  This is a game where we 100% will need special teams to make a (positive) difference.

PREDICTO DE CHAMOY

Kansas State23
Texas21

:ksu: :ksu:

BUT also

:ohno:



« Last Edit: October 01, 2017, 05:32:28 PM by Chingon »

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2017, 11:33:51 AM »
WEEK 6 UPDATE

Top 25

Lots of movement.

Big 12

Solidly in the middle of pack yet again.  But the Big 12 is looking pretty good.  The OOC wins by OU, TCU, etc are really helping provide an anchor for teams.

KSU games (raw)


KSU games (adj)

Perhaps the best game our offense has played, but we really needed a defensive or special teams score to win this type of game.

WEEK SEVEN (7) MATCHUP

Not a game which favors our wild wildcats, but miracles can happen (hell ISU beat OU -- so you never know).

TCU games (raw)


TCU games (adj)


PREDICTION
TCU42
Kansas State13
Let's hope the computer is WRONG.

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2017, 01:24:29 PM »
6 weeks into the season and the cats are ranked:

31st for offense
46th for defense
3rd for special teams (SEAN!)

not all that much different from where they ended up last year IIRC.

Online wetwillie

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #8 on: October 08, 2017, 01:27:28 PM »
ChAMOY loves the crap out of the red raiders. 
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline mocat

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #9 on: October 09, 2017, 11:01:45 AM »
whose leg does auburn have to hump to crack the ChAMOY t25?

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2017, 06:07:14 PM »
First, lets reflect on the Prediction from last week!
PREDICTO:
TCU   42
Kansas State   13

ACTUAL:
TCU   26
Kansas State   6

-- looks like the compy thought more of our offense and less of our defense.  Still we beat the ChAMOY spread of 29 so thats a peggy po!

WEEK 7 UPDATE

Top 25


Big 12


KSU games (raw)


KSU games (adj)


A dismal week for the offense (the D played pretty well), but still not quite as terrible as the Vanderbilt disaster, which looks worse and worse every week.

Week 8 (eight) Match-Up


Looks like another long game this weekend (hopefully mother nature doesn't prolong the misery like last week).

Oklahoma games (raw)


Oklahoma games (adj)


PREDICTIOOOOOON

Oklahoma47
Kansas State23

Maybe just maybe our offense steps up big time and our defense plays the best game of the season.

But probably not.  This team is clearly what it has been.

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2017, 06:09:32 PM »
Interesting how insignificant being good at special teams really is.  It's a lot like having the fewest penalties: a nice story to tell you fans but nothing more.

Offline ksu_FAN

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2017, 06:14:21 PM »
Interesting how insignificant being good at special teams really is.  It's a lot like having the fewest penalties: a nice story to tell you fans but nothing more.

If your offense does nothing after continually getting great field position, yeah, it doesn't matter much.

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2017, 06:30:06 PM »
Interesting how insignificant being good at special teams really is.  It's a lot like having the fewest penalties: a nice story to tell you fans but nothing more.

If your offense does nothing after continually getting great field position, yeah, it doesn't matter much.
Yeah, its like having a great lead off hitter, but no one to drive them in.  Relying on your ST to score is simply not sustainable over the long haul.