Author Topic: ChAMOY 2017  (Read 2109 times)

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Offline Chingon

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ChAMOY 2017
« on: September 17, 2017, 03:36:03 PM »
CHingon's Adjusted Metrics, Omitting Yardage

A ranking system that is 100% objective. It combines the opponent adjusted efficiency stats for each team with an "accomplishment" factor that reflects the wins of said team. It disregards any numbers based on yards as essentially meaningless.

The quick and dirty rundown for efficiency

Compute a teams offensive efficiency by computing the number of points scored by the offense minus the number of points GIVEN UP by the offense (such as INT returns for TD) divided by the number of opportunities for the offense (drives).  The offense does NOT get credit for points from kickoff returns, punt returns, blocked punt returns, blocked FG returns, or any points scored by the defense.  It does however give the offense partial credit for a made FG.

Similarly the team's defensive efficiency is computed by the number of points allowed by the defense minus the number of points SCORED by the defense divided by the number of drives.  The defense is not held accountable for kickoff returns, etc or points given up by the offense. If is partially responsible for made FGs.

Special teams are given credit for (and held accountable for) any scores resulting from kickoffs, punts, blocked fgs.  They also get partial credit for made FGs. The number of points from special teams is divided by the number of opportunities they had.

In effect the efficiency numbers are the NET points scored by each group divided by the number of opportunities they had to score.  It's says how many points per opportunity this unit provides (or costs) the team.  These numbers are computed for each game.

For example, here are KSU's raw efficiency numbers for the first three games:



The efficiency numbers for each game are adjusted by taking into the account the opponent's average efficiency numbers (calculated from all games except the one being played) as compared to the FBS average.  In a sense it portrays how the units would have performed against an average counter-unit.

Here are KSU's adjusted efficiencies:



So looking at the Vanderbilt game, KSU's offense played in a manner that would have resulted in 2.15 ppo if the game was against an avg defense.  It kinda lets you compare across games and takes into account the opponent.

The quick and dirty rundown for accomplishment
A team can only gain accomplishment points for wins (losses are irrelevant).  The better the team the more points. The accomplishment points are re-scaled to run from 0 to 1. 

ChAMOY ranking is determined by combining total adjusted efficiency (offense - defense + st/4) and acc.

Here is the Top 25 (its a bit crazy because some teams have still only played one game -- this is hurting Alabama because FSU is a no win team right now)


Just the Big 12:


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Offline The Big Train

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2017, 06:57:09 PM »
Did you make this or take it from somewhere else?  What did you use to generate these stats?
KU football is a sleeping giant and always has been - beems

If LHC Bill Snyder had been hired at KU years ago, we'd have a national championship in football and a couple more BCS bowls. - beems

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2017, 09:31:19 PM »
I made it.

Used ideas from https://github.com/BlueSCar/cfb-data to get play by play from games.

Offline The Big Train

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2017, 09:41:43 PM »
I made it.

Used ideas from https://github.com/BlueSCar/cfb-data to get play by play from games.

 :thumbs:

I will check this out.  In college several buddies and I did a college fantasy football league by hand.  We talked about it this year before the season started but nobody wanted to pull stats manually, I could build from this.
KU football is a sleeping giant and always has been - beems

If LHC Bill Snyder had been hired at KU years ago, we'd have a national championship in football and a couple more BCS bowls. - beems

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #4 on: September 26, 2017, 06:56:21 PM »
Week 4 Update:

Top 25


Big 12


KSU games (raw)


KSU games (adj)


This week's matchup


PREDICTION


 :Woot: :Woot: :Woot: :Woot:

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2017, 04:56:32 PM »
WEEK 5 UPDATE

Top 25


Big 12


KSU Games (raw)


KSU Games (adj)


WEEK SIX (6) MATCH UP


A battle between two evenly matched and average teams. Looks to be a low scoring struggle again for our intrepid cats.  This is a game where we 100% will need special teams to make a (positive) difference.

PREDICTO DE CHAMOY

Kansas State23
Texas21

:ksu: :ksu:

BUT also

:ohno:



« Last Edit: October 01, 2017, 05:32:28 PM by Chingon »

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2017, 11:33:51 AM »
WEEK 6 UPDATE

Top 25

Lots of movement.

Big 12

Solidly in the middle of pack yet again.  But the Big 12 is looking pretty good.  The OOC wins by OU, TCU, etc are really helping provide an anchor for teams.

KSU games (raw)


KSU games (adj)

Perhaps the best game our offense has played, but we really needed a defensive or special teams score to win this type of game.

WEEK SEVEN (7) MATCHUP

Not a game which favors our wild wildcats, but miracles can happen (hell ISU beat OU -- so you never know).

TCU games (raw)


TCU games (adj)


PREDICTION
TCU42
Kansas State13
Let's hope the computer is WRONG.

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2017, 01:24:29 PM »
6 weeks into the season and the cats are ranked:

31st for offense
46th for defense
3rd for special teams (SEAN!)

not all that much different from where they ended up last year IIRC.

Offline wetwillie

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #8 on: October 08, 2017, 01:27:28 PM »
ChAMOY loves the crap out of the red raiders. 
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline mocat

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #9 on: October 09, 2017, 11:01:45 AM »
whose leg does auburn have to hump to crack the ChAMOY t25?

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2017, 06:07:14 PM »
First, lets reflect on the Prediction from last week!
PREDICTO:
TCU   42
Kansas State   13

ACTUAL:
TCU   26
Kansas State   6

-- looks like the compy thought more of our offense and less of our defense.  Still we beat the ChAMOY spread of 29 so thats a peggy po!

WEEK 7 UPDATE

Top 25


Big 12


KSU games (raw)


KSU games (adj)


A dismal week for the offense (the D played pretty well), but still not quite as terrible as the Vanderbilt disaster, which looks worse and worse every week.

Week 8 (eight) Match-Up


Looks like another long game this weekend (hopefully mother nature doesn't prolong the misery like last week).

Oklahoma games (raw)


Oklahoma games (adj)


PREDICTIOOOOOON

Oklahoma47
Kansas State23

Maybe just maybe our offense steps up big time and our defense plays the best game of the season.

But probably not.  This team is clearly what it has been.

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2017, 06:09:32 PM »
Interesting how insignificant being good at special teams really is.  It's a lot like having the fewest penalties: a nice story to tell you fans but nothing more.

Offline ksu_FAN1

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2017, 06:14:21 PM »
Interesting how insignificant being good at special teams really is.  It's a lot like having the fewest penalties: a nice story to tell you fans but nothing more.

If your offense does nothing after continually getting great field position, yeah, it doesn't matter much.

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2017, 06:30:06 PM »
Interesting how insignificant being good at special teams really is.  It's a lot like having the fewest penalties: a nice story to tell you fans but nothing more.

If your offense does nothing after continually getting great field position, yeah, it doesn't matter much.
Yeah, its like having a great lead off hitter, but no one to drive them in.  Relying on your ST to score is simply not sustainable over the long haul.

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #14 on: October 23, 2017, 05:26:20 PM »
Oh boy what a weekend of games!  Just how close did the Prediction from last week get?
PREDICTO:
Oklahoma47
Kansas State23

ACTUAL:
Oklahoma42
Kansas State35

-- Cats cats cats played better than expected, in particular the offense scored 12 more points than ChAMOY thought it would (this was in fact our best offensive week to date).  Unfortunately, we needed the defense to play much better than expectations (second worst defensive week :().

WEEK 8 UPDATE

Top 25


Big 12


KSU games (raw)


KSU games (adj)


As I mentioned earlier this was actually a productive week for our offense with 3.35 points per drive (relative to our normal average of about 2 points per drive and OU's defense normally only yields 1.46 ppd) .  Unfortunately, we also needed out defense to play above it head to get a win.  While we only gave up 2.37 ppd to Oklahoma (and they average 3.74), it was still too much.

We played good enough to beat an average team this weekend.  In fact, we played well enough to win against an average team in the games against Texas and TCU (but alas they aren't average teams).  Parenthetically, we played poorly enough in our win against Baylor that we would have lost to an average team...

In the big scale we are slightly above average on offense (the national average is 1.94 ppd) and slightly above average on defense (the national average here is 1.74 ppd).  What anchors KSU in the ratings is our total lack of useful wins.  Our best win is a winless Baylor team that is ranked #100, and our other real win is over 1-win #113 Charlotte.  Just dismal. 

Week 8 (eight) Match-Up


This should be a win.  Kansas is really bad.  But we have already lost to another bad team in Vanderbilt.  A few key turnovers and we could easily lose just like Texas did last year.

Kansas games (raw)


Kansas games (adj)


PREDICTIOOOOOON

Kansas State34
Kansas24

Oh this is closer than I would like it to be.  Let's hope ChAMOY doesn't take into account the information that Bill knows he needs to rock KU to keep his fanbase happy.  This is the superbowl for the fanbase and the only win he really needs to notch these days (now that Nub and Mizzou are gone).

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #15 on: October 28, 2017, 05:40:26 PM »
Pretty close...

Offline Dr Rick Daris

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #16 on: October 28, 2017, 07:21:32 PM »
This chamoy thing is solid gold. I'm up 6000 biscuits with it.

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2017, 02:47:51 PM »
The Sunflower Shootout Brought to you by Dillions has come to a close, and it was closer than many experts predicted.  Let's look at how ChAMOY did.
PREDICTO:
Kansas State34
Kansas24

ACTUAL:
Kansas State30
Kansas20

I was hoping ChAMOY was underestimating the cats cats, but nope this is a team that was in a competitive game with the P5 football team (perhaps ever) well into the fourth quarter. 

WEEK 9 UPDATE

Top 25


The first that that pops out to me is the low ranking for Alabama.  While they have an amazing total efficiency (#1 in fact), they simply haven't racked up any impressive wins.   The tailspin for FSU really hurts them.  They do, however, have significant chances coming up to get some acc points (as does Georgia as well).

If ChAMOY determined the 4 teams in the playoffs it would be:
1) ND vs 4) USC
2) Clemson vs 3) OU


Big 12


It looks like the B12 has split itself into 3 groups:
1) contenders: OU, ISU(!), Ok St, and TCU
2) bowl teams: Texas, Tech, WVU
3) bottom feeders: KSU, BU, KU

Why is Tech getting up to #29?  Well they have 2 solid wins which helps them a lot.  Despite the L, they also played pretty well against OSU and WVU.

KSU games (raw)


KSU games (adj)


The adjusted numbers show how much of a disastrous effort on offense we had this week.  Against a barely mediocre team, that performance would have resulted in an L.  I was actually amazed it wasn't our worst, but that Vanderbilt game will keep looking worse and worse as teams easily score on their inept defense.

We played good enough to beat an average team this weekend.  In fact, we played well enough to win against an average team in the games against Texas and TCU (but alas they aren't average teams).  Parenthetically, we played poorly enough in our win against Baylor that we would have lost to an average team...

Still no worthwhile victories for the season (a drop by Baylor now means all our wins have come against teams ranked lower than 110).

Week 8 (eight) Match-Up


Tech's offense isn't all that much more efficient than ours and the defenses are about equal.  They will push the pace (they squeeze in about 3 more drives a game than we do).  Our edge (yet again) is in getting net plus points from our special teams.  We will need it to win.

Texas Tech games (raw)


Texas Tech games (adj)


PREDICTIOOOOOON

Kansas State20
Texas Tech31

KSU has about a 33% chance of winning this game.

If Kliff calls more than a handful of running plays he should be fired immediately.  I still don't know why teams bother trying to establish the run against us.  The middle of the field will be wide open for receptions all day long.  Our best chance for another win looks to be against WVU.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2017, 02:54:15 PM by Chingon »

Offline mocat

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #18 on: November 07, 2017, 12:04:38 PM »
Chings what does chamoy have to say about TCU-OU?

I want to know if snowbrag is malfunctioning by having frogs by a point  :sdeek:

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #19 on: November 10, 2017, 07:50:20 PM »
My lappy is giving me trouble so ChAMOY has been delayed, but it had OU winning by about 4 i think.

Also has the cats winning by 2!!!

Offline The Big Train

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #20 on: November 10, 2017, 07:55:11 PM »
Desktop app huh?  Web app is the way to go, Chings.
KU football is a sleeping giant and always has been - beems

If LHC Bill Snyder had been hired at KU years ago, we'd have a national championship in football and a couple more BCS bowls. - beems

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #21 on: November 10, 2017, 07:56:01 PM »
Not really

Offline The Big Train

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #22 on: November 10, 2017, 07:57:43 PM »
:dunno:
KU football is a sleeping giant and always has been - beems

If LHC Bill Snyder had been hired at KU years ago, we'd have a national championship in football and a couple more BCS bowls. - beems

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #23 on: November 10, 2017, 08:00:57 PM »
I should have known better than to use my work laptop.  HP sucks butt.

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChAMOY 2017
« Reply #24 on: November 10, 2017, 08:20:03 PM »
The Cat wins a big one.  Bets win of the year by far!!! 

PREDICTO:
Kansas State20
Texas Tech31

ACTUAL:
Kansas State42
Texas Tech35

ChAMOY underestimating the shitty coaching ability of Kilffffff Kingsbury, but the cats did play well in the first half offensively and the defense held on just enough!

WEEK 10 UPDATE

Top 25


Alabama is still the best team based on efficiency alone and the are creeping up, but the relatively weak schedule is still pinning them down.  The SEC will get wild over teh next couple of weeks.  Auburn has a great chance to jump up in a big way.

If ChAMOY determined the 4 teams in the playoffs it would be:
1) ND vs 4) TCU
2) Clemson vs 3) OU

(clearly it wont have 2 B12 teams in it).

Big 12


KSU extracts itself from the bottom feeders group with its first win over a real team.

Why is Tech getting up to #29?  Well they have 2 solid wins which helps them a lot.  Despite the L, they also played pretty well against OSU and WVU.

KSU games (raw)


KSU games (adj)


Our offense was pretty good last week. Lets hope that carries over

Week 10 (TEN) Match-Up


We match up well here.  While they have the slightly better offense, we have the better defense (:Wha:) and SEAN should supply us with some needed edge in the ST game.

West Virginia games (raw)


West Virginia games (adj)


PREDICTIOOOOOON
West Virginia20
Kansas State22

This is a toss-up game, 50% win prob for both.

This is a great chance to grab a win over a good team and I think we can pull it off.