The Sunflower Shootout Brought to you by Dillions has come to a close, and it was closer than many experts predicted. Let's look at how ChAMOY did.
PREDICTO:
ACTUAL:
I was hoping ChAMOY was underestimating the cats cats, but nope this is a team that was in a competitive game with the P5 football team (perhaps ever) well into the fourth quarter.
WEEK 9 UPDATETop 25The first that that pops out to me is the low ranking for Alabama. While they have an amazing total efficiency (#1 in fact), they simply haven't racked up any impressive wins. The tailspin for FSU really hurts them. They do, however, have significant chances coming up to get some acc points (as does Georgia as well).
If ChAMOY determined the 4 teams in the playoffs it would be:
1) ND vs 4) USC
2) Clemson vs 3) OU
Big 12It looks like the B12 has split itself into 3 groups:
1) contenders: OU, ISU(!), Ok St, and TCU
2) bowl teams: Texas, Tech, WVU
3) bottom feeders: KSU, BU, KU
Why is Tech getting up to #29? Well they have 2 solid wins which helps them a lot. Despite the L, they also played pretty well against OSU and WVU.
KSU games (raw)KSU games (adj)The adjusted numbers show how much of a disastrous effort on offense we had this week. Against a barely mediocre team, that performance would have resulted in an L. I was actually amazed it wasn't our worst, but that Vanderbilt game will keep looking worse and worse as teams easily score on their inept defense.
We played good enough to beat an average team this weekend. In fact, we played well enough to win against an average team in the games against Texas and TCU (but alas they aren't average teams). Parenthetically, we played poorly enough in our win against Baylor that we would have lost to an average team...
Still no worthwhile victories for the season (a drop by Baylor now means all our wins have come against teams ranked lower than 110).
Week 8 (eight) Match-UpTech's offense isn't all that much more efficient than ours and the defenses are about equal. They will push the pace (they squeeze in about 3 more drives a game than we do). Our edge (yet again) is in getting net plus points from our special teams. We will need it to win.
Texas Tech games (raw)Texas Tech games (adj)PREDICTIOOOOOONKansas State | 20 |
Texas Tech | 31 |
KSU has about a 33% chance of winning this game.
If Kliff calls more than a handful of running plays he should be fired immediately. I still don't know why teams bother trying to establish the run against us. The middle of the field will be wide open for receptions all day long. Our best chance for another win looks to be against WVU.