goemaw.com

TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Football => Topic started by: CHONGS on September 17, 2017, 03:36:03 PM

Title: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: CHONGS on September 17, 2017, 03:36:03 PM
CHingon's Adjusted Metrics, Omitting Yardage

A ranking system that is 100% objective. It combines the opponent adjusted efficiency stats for each team with an "accomplishment" factor that reflects the wins of said team. It disregards any numbers based on yards as essentially meaningless.

The quick and dirty rundown for efficiency

Compute a teams offensive efficiency by computing the number of points scored by the offense minus the number of points GIVEN UP by the offense (such as INT returns for TD) divided by the number of opportunities for the offense (drives).  The offense does NOT get credit for points from kickoff returns, punt returns, blocked punt returns, blocked FG returns, or any points scored by the defense.  It does however give the offense partial credit for a made FG.

Similarly the team's defensive efficiency is computed by the number of points allowed by the defense minus the number of points SCORED by the defense divided by the number of drives.  The defense is not held accountable for kickoff returns, etc or points given up by the offense. If is partially responsible for made FGs.

Special teams are given credit for (and held accountable for) any scores resulting from kickoffs, punts, blocked fgs.  They also get partial credit for made FGs. The number of points from special teams is divided by the number of opportunities they had.

In effect the efficiency numbers are the NET points scored by each group divided by the number of opportunities they had to score.  It's says how many points per opportunity this unit provides (or costs) the team.  These numbers are computed for each game.

For example, here are KSU's raw efficiency numbers for the first three games:

(http://i.stack.imgur.com/qbUdz.png)

The efficiency numbers for each game are adjusted by taking into the account the opponent's average efficiency numbers (calculated from all games except the one being played) as compared to the FBS average.  In a sense it portrays how the units would have performed against an average counter-unit.

Here are KSU's adjusted efficiencies:

(http://i.stack.imgur.com/vYG16.png)

So looking at the Vanderbilt game, KSU's offense played in a manner that would have resulted in 2.15 ppo if the game was against an avg defense.  It kinda lets you compare across games and takes into account the opponent.

The quick and dirty rundown for accomplishment
A team can only gain accomplishment points for wins (losses are irrelevant).  The better the team the more points. The accomplishment points are re-scaled to run from 0 to 1. 

ChAMOY ranking is determined by combining total adjusted efficiency (offense - defense + st/4) and acc.

Here is the Top 25 (its a bit crazy because some teams have still only played one game -- this is hurting Alabama because FSU is a no win team right now)
(https://i.imgur.com/ze7Cefj.png)

Just the Big 12:
(https://i.imgur.com/8WsPsxE.png)
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: The Big Train on September 20, 2017, 06:57:09 PM
Did you make this or take it from somewhere else?  What did you use to generate these stats?
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: CHONGS on September 20, 2017, 09:31:19 PM
I made it.

Used ideas from https://github.com/BlueSCar/cfb-data to get play by play from games.
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: The Big Train on September 20, 2017, 09:41:43 PM
I made it.

Used ideas from https://github.com/BlueSCar/cfb-data to get play by play from games.

 :thumbs:

I will check this out.  In college several buddies and I did a college fantasy football league by hand.  We talked about it this year before the season started but nobody wanted to pull stats manually, I could build from this.
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: CHONGS on September 26, 2017, 06:56:21 PM
Week 4 Update:

Top 25
(https://i.imglnx.com/cPbJub.png)

Big 12
(https://i.imglnx.com/pSr1MV.png)

KSU games (raw)
(https://i.imglnx.com/7JaaAO.png)

KSU games (adj)
(https://i.imglnx.com/L1TKoT.png)

This week's matchup
(https://i.imglnx.com/VdYXNC.png)

PREDICTION
(https://i.imglnx.com/RaAhn4.png)

 :Woot: :Woot: :Woot: :Woot:
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: CHONGS on October 01, 2017, 04:56:32 PM
WEEK 5 UPDATE

Top 25
(https://i.imgur.com/a9uGEP1.png)

Big 12
(https://i.imgur.com/h56mDn3.png)

KSU Games (raw)
(https://i.imgur.com/dCdkJBQ.png)

KSU Games (adj)
(https://i.imgur.com/Gy9wo6j.png)

WEEK SIX (6) MATCH UP
(https://i.imgur.com/mYGyYTA.png)

A battle between two evenly matched and average teams. Looks to be a low scoring struggle again for our intrepid cats.  This is a game where we 100% will need special teams to make a (positive) difference.

PREDICTO DE CHAMOY

Kansas State23
Texas21

:ksu: :ksu:

BUT also

:ohno:



Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: CHONGS on October 08, 2017, 11:33:51 AM
WEEK 6 UPDATE

Top 25
(https://i.imgur.com/Kba0I4N.png)
Lots of movement.

Big 12
(https://i.imgur.com/um42zUg.png)
Solidly in the middle of pack yet again.  But the Big 12 is looking pretty good.  The OOC wins by OU, TCU, etc are really helping provide an anchor for teams.

KSU games (raw)
(https://i.imgur.com/RZdmFol.png)

KSU games (adj)
(https://i.imgur.com/yfW2s2Z.png)
Perhaps the best game our offense has played, but we really needed a defensive or special teams score to win this type of game.

WEEK SEVEN (7) MATCHUP
(https://i.imgur.com/k7SgMQo.png)
Not a game which favors our wild wildcats, but miracles can happen (hell ISU beat OU -- so you never know).

TCU games (raw)
(https://i.imgur.com/7pamqTI.png)

TCU games (adj)
(https://i.imgur.com/tu2kE52.png)

PREDICTION
TCU42
Kansas State13
Let's hope the computer is WRONG.
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: CHONGS on October 08, 2017, 01:24:29 PM
6 weeks into the season and the cats are ranked:

31st for offense
46th for defense
3rd for special teams (SEAN!)

not all that much different from where they ended up last year IIRC.
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: wetwillie on October 08, 2017, 01:27:28 PM
ChAMOY loves the crap out of the red raiders. 
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: mocat on October 09, 2017, 11:01:45 AM
whose leg does auburn have to hump to crack the ChAMOY t25?
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: CHONGS on October 15, 2017, 06:07:14 PM
First, lets reflect on the Prediction from last week!
PREDICTO:
TCU   42
Kansas State   13

ACTUAL:
TCU   26
Kansas State   6

-- looks like the compy thought more of our offense and less of our defense.  Still we beat the ChAMOY spread of 29 so thats a peggy po!

WEEK 7 UPDATE

Top 25
(https://i.imgur.com/UfaHII6.png)

Big 12
(https://i.imgur.com/DCm5uKL.png)

KSU games (raw)
(https://i.imgur.com/6KtmrCz.png)

KSU games (adj)
(https://i.imgur.com/atJ1T2N.png)

A dismal week for the offense (the D played pretty well), but still not quite as terrible as the Vanderbilt disaster, which looks worse and worse every week.

Week 8 (eight) Match-Up
(https://i.imgur.com/5mNqcYx.png)

Looks like another long game this weekend (hopefully mother nature doesn't prolong the misery like last week).

Oklahoma games (raw)
(https://i.imgur.com/6cYTlJK.png)

Oklahoma games (adj)
(https://i.imgur.com/PMLpWf7.png)

PREDICTIOOOOOON

Oklahoma47
Kansas State23

Maybe just maybe our offense steps up big time and our defense plays the best game of the season.

But probably not.  This team is clearly what it has been.
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: CHONGS on October 15, 2017, 06:09:32 PM
Interesting how insignificant being good at special teams really is.  It's a lot like having the fewest penalties: a nice story to tell you fans but nothing more.
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: kso_FAN on October 15, 2017, 06:14:21 PM
Interesting how insignificant being good at special teams really is.  It's a lot like having the fewest penalties: a nice story to tell you fans but nothing more.

If your offense does nothing after continually getting great field position, yeah, it doesn't matter much.
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: CHONGS on October 15, 2017, 06:30:06 PM
Interesting how insignificant being good at special teams really is.  It's a lot like having the fewest penalties: a nice story to tell you fans but nothing more.

If your offense does nothing after continually getting great field position, yeah, it doesn't matter much.
Yeah, its like having a great lead off hitter, but no one to drive them in.  Relying on your ST to score is simply not sustainable over the long haul.
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: CHONGS on October 23, 2017, 05:26:20 PM
Oh boy what a weekend of games!  Just how close did the Prediction from last week get?
PREDICTO:
Oklahoma47
Kansas State23

ACTUAL:
Oklahoma42
Kansas State35

-- Cats cats cats played better than expected, in particular the offense scored 12 more points than ChAMOY thought it would (this was in fact our best offensive week to date).  Unfortunately, we needed the defense to play much better than expectations (second worst defensive week :().

WEEK 8 UPDATE

Top 25
(https://i.imgur.com/O9FJptk.png)

Big 12
(https://i.imgur.com/eYsfGf8.png)

KSU games (raw)
(https://i.imgur.com/Kz44Q9w.png)

KSU games (adj)
(https://i.imgur.com/RlAxXdB.png)

As I mentioned earlier this was actually a productive week for our offense with 3.35 points per drive (relative to our normal average of about 2 points per drive and OU's defense normally only yields 1.46 ppd) .  Unfortunately, we also needed out defense to play above it head to get a win.  While we only gave up 2.37 ppd to Oklahoma (and they average 3.74), it was still too much.

We played good enough to beat an average team this weekend.  In fact, we played well enough to win against an average team in the games against Texas and TCU (but alas they aren't average teams).  Parenthetically, we played poorly enough in our win against Baylor that we would have lost to an average team...

In the big scale we are slightly above average on offense (the national average is 1.94 ppd) and slightly above average on defense (the national average here is 1.74 ppd).  What anchors KSU in the ratings is our total lack of useful wins.  Our best win is a winless Baylor team that is ranked #100, and our other real win is over 1-win #113 Charlotte.  Just dismal. 

Week 8 (eight) Match-Up
(https://i.imgur.com/3srjkqK.png)

This should be a win.  Kansas is really bad.  But we have already lost to another bad team in Vanderbilt.  A few key turnovers and we could easily lose just like Texas did last year.

Kansas games (raw)
(https://i.imgur.com/gd9d5jz.png)

Kansas games (adj)
(https://i.imgur.com/UoGeKXm.png)

PREDICTIOOOOOON

Kansas State34
Kansas24

Oh this is closer than I would like it to be.  Let's hope ChAMOY doesn't take into account the information that Bill knows he needs to rock KU to keep his fanbase happy.  This is the superbowl for the fanbase and the only win he really needs to notch these days (now that Nub and Mizzou are gone).
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: CHONGS on October 28, 2017, 05:40:26 PM
Pretty close...
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: Dr Rick Daris on October 28, 2017, 07:21:32 PM
This chamoy thing is solid gold. I'm up 6000 biscuits with it.
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: CHONGS on October 30, 2017, 02:47:51 PM
The Sunflower Shootout Brought to you by Dillions has come to a close, and it was closer than many experts predicted.  Let's look at how ChAMOY did.
PREDICTO:
Kansas State34
Kansas24

ACTUAL:
Kansas State30
Kansas20

I was hoping ChAMOY was underestimating the cats cats, but nope this is a team that was in a competitive game with the P5 football team (perhaps ever) well into the fourth quarter. 

WEEK 9 UPDATE

Top 25
(https://i.imgur.com/v5KrGDv.png)

The first that that pops out to me is the low ranking for Alabama.  While they have an amazing total efficiency (#1 in fact), they simply haven't racked up any impressive wins.   The tailspin for FSU really hurts them.  They do, however, have significant chances coming up to get some acc points (as does Georgia as well).

If ChAMOY determined the 4 teams in the playoffs it would be:
1) ND vs 4) USC
2) Clemson vs 3) OU


Big 12
(https://i.imgur.com/muBmUfn.png)

It looks like the B12 has split itself into 3 groups:
1) contenders: OU, ISU(!), Ok St, and TCU
2) bowl teams: Texas, Tech, WVU
3) bottom feeders: KSU, BU, KU

Why is Tech getting up to #29?  Well they have 2 solid wins which helps them a lot.  Despite the L, they also played pretty well against OSU and WVU.

KSU games (raw)
(https://i.imgur.com/1jpqZoH.png)

KSU games (adj)
(https://i.imgur.com/yGXeQ9A.png)

The adjusted numbers show how much of a disastrous effort on offense we had this week.  Against a barely mediocre team, that performance would have resulted in an L.  I was actually amazed it wasn't our worst, but that Vanderbilt game will keep looking worse and worse as teams easily score on their inept defense.

We played good enough to beat an average team this weekend.  In fact, we played well enough to win against an average team in the games against Texas and TCU (but alas they aren't average teams).  Parenthetically, we played poorly enough in our win against Baylor that we would have lost to an average team...

Still no worthwhile victories for the season (a drop by Baylor now means all our wins have come against teams ranked lower than 110).

Week 8 (eight) Match-Up
(https://i.imgur.com/KTYL39J.png)

Tech's offense isn't all that much more efficient than ours and the defenses are about equal.  They will push the pace (they squeeze in about 3 more drives a game than we do).  Our edge (yet again) is in getting net plus points from our special teams.  We will need it to win.

Texas Tech games (raw)
(https://i.imgur.com/rMICoW2.png)

Texas Tech games (adj)
(https://i.imgur.com/rMICoW2.png)

PREDICTIOOOOOON

Kansas State20
Texas Tech31

KSU has about a 33% chance of winning this game.

If Kliff calls more than a handful of running plays he should be fired immediately.  I still don't know why teams bother trying to establish the run against us.  The middle of the field will be wide open for receptions all day long.  Our best chance for another win looks to be against WVU.
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: mocat on November 07, 2017, 12:04:38 PM
Chings what does chamoy have to say about TCU-OU?

I want to know if snowbrag is malfunctioning by having frogs by a point  :sdeek:
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: CHONGS on November 10, 2017, 07:50:20 PM
My lappy is giving me trouble so ChAMOY has been delayed, but it had OU winning by about 4 i think.

Also has the cats winning by 2!!!
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: The Big Train on November 10, 2017, 07:55:11 PM
Desktop app huh?  Web app is the way to go, Chings.
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: CHONGS on November 10, 2017, 07:56:01 PM
Not really
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: The Big Train on November 10, 2017, 07:57:43 PM
:dunno:
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: CHONGS on November 10, 2017, 08:00:57 PM
I should have known better than to use my work laptop.  HP sucks butt.
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: CHONGS on November 10, 2017, 08:20:03 PM
The Cat wins a big one.  Bets win of the year by far!!! 

PREDICTO:
Kansas State20
Texas Tech31

ACTUAL:
Kansas State42
Texas Tech35

ChAMOY underestimating the shitty coaching ability of Kilffffff Kingsbury, but the cats did play well in the first half offensively and the defense held on just enough!

WEEK 10 UPDATE

Top 25
(https://i.imgur.com/0ifPpnO.png)

Alabama is still the best team based on efficiency alone and the are creeping up, but the relatively weak schedule is still pinning them down.  The SEC will get wild over teh next couple of weeks.  Auburn has a great chance to jump up in a big way.

If ChAMOY determined the 4 teams in the playoffs it would be:
1) ND vs 4) TCU
2) Clemson vs 3) OU

(clearly it wont have 2 B12 teams in it).

Big 12
(https://i.imgur.com/Di8V6h9.png)

KSU extracts itself from the bottom feeders group with its first win over a real team.

Why is Tech getting up to #29?  Well they have 2 solid wins which helps them a lot.  Despite the L, they also played pretty well against OSU and WVU.

KSU games (raw)
(https://i.imgur.com/V8CZ76f.png)

KSU games (adj)
(https://i.imgur.com/jxPUQQT.png)

Our offense was pretty good last week. Lets hope that carries over

Week 10 (TEN) Match-Up
(https://i.imgur.com/rAUK4Nb.png)

We match up well here.  While they have the slightly better offense, we have the better defense (:Wha:) and SEAN should supply us with some needed edge in the ST game.

West Virginia games (raw)
(https://i.imgur.com/AEc9Cx7.png)

West Virginia games (adj)
(https://i.imgur.com/sU7bZUz.png)

PREDICTIOOOOOON
West Virginia20
Kansas State22

This is a toss-up game, 50% win prob for both.

This is a great chance to grab a win over a good team and I think we can pull it off.
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: CHONGS on November 17, 2017, 01:38:42 PM
The Eers tried to give the cats the game in the first half, but an inept offense didn't take advantage of all of these miscues. Skylar comes back to the Groundlar and cant't lead the offense to cash in more than 3 points on 4 turnovers and the special teams handing the offense great field position time after time.

PREDICTO:
West Virginia20
Kansas State22

ACTUAL:
West Virginia28
Kansas State23

It was almost the 2 points victory that ChAMOY expected.

WEEK 11 UPDATE

Top 25
(https://i.imgur.com/HofNLYh.png)

So, I have thought it about more and more, and I realize that I do in fact need to penalize for losses.  I needed a way to differentiate between two teams with equally good wins, but one team has a loss to a great team and the other a loss to a bad team.  Starting now losses are folded into the accomplishment score.   

As expected, Alabama had jumped up the ranks and (if they continue to win) they will likely easily make it into the top four.  Oklahoma is also looking pretty if they win out.  Winner of the ACC deserves to get into the playoff as well. The Big Ten looks to be on the outside looking in.

Big 12
(https://i.imgur.com/dHgjSio.png)

KSU sits on an island, it had a chance to join WVU, Texas, and Tech.  Kansas is decrepit and the worst p5 team just below Illinois (#118).

Why is Tech getting up to #29?  Well they have 2 solid wins which helps them a lot.  Despite the L, they also played pretty well against OSU and WVU.

KSU games (raw)
(https://i.imgur.com/ZyWchAJ.png)

KSU games (adj)
(https://i.imgur.com/BWyFEZE.png)

Second best defensive performance of the year! But third worst offensive performance :(.  Inconstant cats.  Once again ST means basically nothing if you can't cash them in.

Week 11 (eleven) Match-Up
(https://i.imgur.com/vH9umsU.png)

Hoo boy.  We're decided underdogs for sure.

Oklahoma State games (raw)
(https://i.imgur.com/URdKBAb.png)

Oklahoma State games (adj)
(https://i.imgur.com/dHgjSio.png)

Okie State has really only beaten on very good team (ISU).  So maybe we can steal one? Wishful thinking probably.

PREDICTIOOOOOON
Oklahoma State45
Kansas State12

Cats have a 7% likelihood of winning.
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: CHONGS on November 30, 2017, 04:00:01 PM
Sorry about skipping a week guys and gals. Turkeying and all...

WEEK 13

End of the regular season and on to the championship games (and other games no one really cares that much about).

Top 25
(https://i.imgur.com/LRoy1Ec.png)
Seems reasonable to me. I think Miami is probably a bit overrated by people.

If ChAMOY determined the 4 teams in the playoffs it would be:
1) Oklahoma vs 4) Alabama
2) Clemson vs 3) Wisconsin

(Auburn might have a fighting chance ti squeeze in if they win / Clemson loses...).  If we did it by the playoff rules I would prefer (p5 champs + highest non-p5 (not ND) + 2 at large)

projecting out conference winners

1) Oklahoma [1] vs 8)Stanford [16]
3) Wisconsin [3] vs 6) Alabama [4]
4) Georgia [5] vs 5) Ohio State [7]
2) Clemson [2] vs 7) UCF [10]

Those are some tasty games...:lick:

Big 12
(https://i.imgur.com/UGsBr35.png)

I think it's not too much of a stretch to say that Texas, WVU, KSU, and Tech were all about tied for the 5th best team in the conference.  Iowa State should get some credit for some very high quality wins and I think they stand apart from this pack at 4.

Here are each teams best wins and worst losses:
(https://i.imgur.com/Sw7sUK5.png)



KSU games (raw)
(https://i.imgur.com/chHKKMg.png)

KSU games (adj)
(https://i.imgur.com/YRXWtKy.png)

A plot to show our progress throughout the season.  The blue dots are offense, the green defense, and the tan are special teams.
(http://i.stack.imgur.com/V1dXB.png)

While we weren't a great team by any stretch, we only laid two big eggs this year: Vanderbilt and KU. Luckily only one ended in a loss.

Through it all the Cats ended up with
#39 offense
#64 defense
#10 special teams

If I were to only include P5 + ND teams, KSU ends up ranked 31 out of 65.
(https://i.imgur.com/bdyL6wF.png)

No surprise, but KU ends up last...
(https://i.imgur.com/9XXdgcX.png)
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: cfbandyman on November 30, 2017, 05:10:45 PM
(Auburn might have a fighting chance to squeeze in if they win / Clemson loses...).  If we did it by the playoff rules I would prefer (p5 champs + highest non-p5 (not ND) + 2 at large)

I would love this very much too.
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: CHONGS on December 07, 2017, 05:16:33 PM
WEEK 14


Top 25
(slightly different format)
(https://i.imgur.com/Synaaxp.png)

ChAMOY disagrees with the playoff committee and has OSU in at #4.  Frankly, Alabama just doesn't have a great win (all of the other playoff teams have at least one win over a top 10 team). Now it is true they only have a single loss, and to a #7 team, but look at Wisconsin...better wins AND a better loss.

If ChAMOY determined the 4 teams in the playoffs it would be:
1) Clemson vs 4) OSU
2) Oklahoma vs 3) Georgia

Honestly, this is how it should have been.

Ideal world scenario

1) Clemson[1] vs 8) USC[17]
3) Georgia [3] vs 6) Wisconsin [5]
4) Ohio State [4] vs 5) Alabama [6]
2) Oklahoma[2] vs 7) UCF [10]

Those are some very very tasty games...:lick:

After a full season (minus bowl games) the cats ended up with
#42 offense
#64 defense
#9 special teams

If I were to only include P5 + ND teams, KSU ends up ranked 33 out of 65.

BOWL GAME MATCHUP:
(https://i.imgur.com/BXR2wLf.png)

Two teams with almost identically the same offensive efficiency, but that Cats have a very slight edge in defense and a BIG edge in special teams.

ULCA info:
raw stats:
(https://i.imgur.com/xqEjDbS.png)

adjusted:
(https://i.imgur.com/h2iCXzU.png)

CACTUS BOWL PREDICTO:
46 Kansas State31
57 UCLA28

Quite appropriately our FG unit secures a victory.
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: CHONGS on January 09, 2018, 02:16:22 PM
End of the year!

Top 25
(https://i.imgur.com/CwQdk8Q.png)

No surprise, Alabama ends up on top.  UCF ends up cracking the top 10 at 9.  Penn State ended the year as a very formidable team, second only to Alabama in totalE.

(https://i.imgur.com/M2yW2WV.png)

Cats end up the 6th best team in the conference squeaking past WVU.

Here's a look at the P5 conferences:
(http://i.stack.imgur.com/fpmas.png)
This is a grid showing where the teams from each conference end up the ranks (better teams are on the left).

People love to debate what the best conference was, but "best" is often ill-defined. Is it highest average ranking? In that case the ACC gets the nod (avg ~ 45).  On the other hand, the Big Ten and SEC had three teams each in the top 10, while the ACC had only one.    By most accounts, the conference that was step behind was the Pac-12.
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: Trim on January 09, 2018, 02:23:06 PM
The OSU win was astonishing.
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: CHONGS on January 09, 2018, 02:39:10 PM
(http://blog.beliefnet.com/godonomics/files/2012/03/3-11.jpg)
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: CHONGS on January 09, 2018, 02:41:04 PM
KSU beat 2 teams better than itself (Okie State and ISU) and lost to 2 teams worse (WVU and Vanderbilt).
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: Trim on January 09, 2018, 02:45:08 PM
It was a low-level rollercoaster of a season, maybe the zambezi zinger.
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: DQ12 on January 09, 2018, 03:23:34 PM
I understand all of the variables except for the last 3.  I see that X is the average between the accomplishment factor and win percentage factor, but how is ACC calculated and how is win% calculated?

Looking at the big 12 numbers, the only thing that really jumps out at me is how far KU is from the rest of the pack on both offense and defense.  Roughly a quarter of a point worse than the next worst offenses and defenses.  Also they had the worst special teams in the league.

Can you show us oregon state's numbers?  They must have been abysmal.
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: CHONGS on January 09, 2018, 04:28:20 PM
I understand all of the variables except for the last 3.  I see that X is the average between the accomplishment factor and win percentage factor, but how is ACC calculated and how is win% calculated?
win% is computed using only totalE.   Its my objective measure of "quality" for a team and I think it tends to model the expected win % of a team if it played against an "average" opponent.  So I would expect Alabama with a a win% of 0.99 to win 99 times out of 100 against teams ranked around 65.  Again this is based purely on the efficiency numbers of the team (post adjustments for opponent of course).

ACC is gained by wins and lost by losses. The better a team you beat the more you get, and the worse a team you lose to the more you is subtracted.  It's not a linear scale, roughly speaking beating a top 4 team is worth almost twice beating a team tanked #25.  Similarly, losing to a sub-100 team is worth 5 times as much as losing to #10.    A win against a sub-100 team get you nothing, and a loss to a top 8 team costs very little.

Quote
Looking at the big 12 numbers, the only thing that really jumps out at me is how far KU is from the rest of the pack on both offense and defense.  Roughly a quarter of a point worse than the next worst offenses and defenses.  Also they had the worst special teams in the league.

Can you show us oregon state's numbers?  They must have been abysmal.
KU barely squeezed past Oregon State based mainly on conference strength (or lack thereof in Pac-12's case)

(http://i.stack.imgur.com/NO9g9.png)

Raw #:
(http://i.stack.imgur.com/kUy2A.png)

Adj:

(http://i.stack.imgur.com/ooZMj.png)

Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: CHONGS on January 09, 2018, 04:32:59 PM
That's hard to see, this might be better:

(https://i.imgur.com/hJeroa7.png)
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: DQ12 on January 09, 2018, 04:34:36 PM
Fascinating stuff.  I've been meaning to devise a ranking system of my own for years.  Maybe during the offseason I'll try to gain the wherewithal to put something together. 
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: cfbandyman on January 09, 2018, 06:36:21 PM
KSU beat 2 teams better than itself (Okie State and ISU) and lost to 2 teams worse (WVU and Vanderbilt).

And those 2 loses are definitely the two that I wish we had back. I still think we could've/should've beat Texas but that loss does describe me as WTF-y. Especially since that was the game Ertz got hurt in.
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: Gooch on January 11, 2018, 12:58:53 PM
It was a low-level rollercoaster of a season, maybe the zambezi zinger.
How dare you? The Zambezi Zinger was easily upper middle level. No Orient Express but it held its own.
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: Katpappy on January 11, 2018, 01:19:37 PM
It was a low-level rollercoaster of a season, maybe the zambezi zinger.
How dare you? The Zambezi Zinger was easily upper middle level. No Orient Express but it held its own.
I loved the fact that when riding the Zinger you never knew when it would break down.  I remember one time being stuck upside down and another in the tunnel.  (http://goEMAW.com/forum/Smileys/goEMAW/Runaway.gif)
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: Trim on January 11, 2018, 01:36:11 PM
It was a low-level rollercoaster of a season, maybe the zambezi zinger.
How dare you? The Zambezi Zinger was easily upper middle level. No Orient Express but it held its own.

It didn't even require seatbelts.
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: Trim on January 11, 2018, 01:36:26 PM
I loved the fact that when riding the Zinger you never knew when it would break down.  I remember one time being stuck upside down and another in the tunnel.  (http://goEMAW.com/forum/Smileys/goEMAW/Runaway.gif)

:dubious:
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: Gooch on January 11, 2018, 04:03:41 PM
I loved the fact that when riding the Zinger you never knew when it would break down.  I remember one time being stuck upside down and another in the tunnel.  (http://goEMAW.com/forum/Smileys/goEMAW/Runaway.gif)

:dubious:
:lol: Katdaddy doesn't know his Zambezi Zigger from his EXT.
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: Katpappy on January 11, 2018, 06:45:23 PM
I loved the fact that when riding the Zinger you never knew when it would break down.  I remember one time being stuck upside down and another in the tunnel.  (http://goEMAW.com/forum/Smileys/goEMAW/Runaway.gif)

:dubious:
:lol: Katdaddy doesn't know his Zambezi Zigger from his EXT.

Was it not the green one with trees all around it?  OK I was adding a little about the upside down part, but we were stuck for over an hour in a very uncomfortable position.   (http://goEMAW.com/forum/Smileys/goEMAW/shaking_fist.png.gif)
Title: Re: ChAMOY 2017
Post by: Skipper44 on January 12, 2018, 07:23:33 AM
I loved the fact that when riding the Zinger you never knew when it would break down.  I remember one time being stuck upside down and another in the tunnel.  (http://goEMAW.com/forum/Smileys/goEMAW/Runaway.gif)

:dubious:
:lol: Katdaddy doesn't know his Zambezi Zigger from his EXT.
he is thinking of the Zulu