Author Topic: Rules changes and advanced stats (Read 8601 times)

kso_FAN · « **on:** February 06, 2014, 01:59:51 PM »

I was looking at kenpom's averages for each season and noticed a spike in efficiency/ppp and a drop in turnovers (among other things). I was curious to see the trends (I put a chart somewhere last year, but couldn't find it) so I put together a graphic to show the changes over the last 10 seasons. It would seem the rules changes this year have made a difference, though its probably too early (still around 1/3 of the season still to be played) to make any type of statistical declaration. Still, all of the numbers except OR% have significant spikes this year compared to the last 9 seasons.

puniraptor · « **Reply #1 on:** February 06, 2014, 02:03:37 PM »

FTR

what a relatively, statiscally horrible time to be a basketball spectator

sys · « **Reply #2 on:** February 06, 2014, 02:14:18 PM »

fantastic post, _fan.

michigancat · « **Reply #3 on:** February 06, 2014, 02:26:02 PM »

My "eye test" really didn't notice a major change in the way the game was being played, so this is really interesting.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #4 on:** February 06, 2014, 02:46:15 PM »

Here are the numbers from Big 12 games only; we're only halfway through the Big 12 schedule, so a lot can change.

michigancat · « **Reply #5 on:** February 06, 2014, 03:02:46 PM »

that could explain why I haven't noticed. It would be difficult (impossible) to pick up on a 3.3% increase in FTR from watching alone.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #6 on:** February 06, 2014, 03:07:36 PM »

Quote from: michigancat on February 06, 2014, 03:02:46 PM

that could explain why I haven't noticed. It would be difficult (impossible) to pick up on a 3.3% increase in FTR from watching alone.

Pace though.

michigancat · « **Reply #7 on:** February 06, 2014, 03:11:12 PM »

Quote from: ksu_FAN on February 06, 2014, 03:07:36 PM

Quote from: michigancat on February 06, 2014, 03:02:46 PM
that could explain why I haven't noticed. It would be difficult (impossible) to pick up on a 3.3% increase in FTR from watching alone.

Pace though.

also hard to notice with your eye. 1-2 extra possessions per half?

ksufan44 · « **Reply #8 on:** February 06, 2014, 03:35:29 PM »

I found most interesting comparing your two figures. Big 12 is greater than national average in PPP, FTR, and Pace.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #9 on:** February 06, 2014, 03:43:27 PM »

Quote from: ksufan44 on February 06, 2014, 03:35:29 PM

I found most interesting comparing your two figures. Big 12 is greater than national average in PPP, FTR, and Pace.

True. Keep in mind national average includes all the mid and low majors (and lots of bad basketball).

michigancat · « **Reply #10 on:** February 06, 2014, 05:24:27 PM »

Quote from: ksu_FAN on February 06, 2014, 03:43:27 PM

Quote from: ksufan44 on February 06, 2014, 03:35:29 PM
I found most interesting comparing your two figures. Big 12 is greater than national average in PPP, FTR, and Pace.

True. Keep in mind national average includes all the mid and low majors (and lots of bad basketball).

but the bad basketball generally plays each other in conference, and when high majors play low majors the averages would be pretty close to two high majors playing. Probably.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #11 on:** February 06, 2014, 06:40:45 PM »

Quote from: michigancat on February 06, 2014, 05:24:27 PM

Quote from: ksu_FAN on February 06, 2014, 03:43:27 PM
Quote from: ksufan44 on February 06, 2014, 03:35:29 PM
I found most interesting comparing your two figures. Big 12 is greater than national average in PPP, FTR, and Pace.

True. Keep in mind national average includes all the mid and low majors (and lots of bad basketball).

but the bad basketball generally plays each other in conference, and when high majors play low majors the averages would be pretty close to two high majors playing. Probably.

True.

I just picked the Southland Conference (#27 conference out of 33 on kenpom) at random and calculated their averages for this year.

PPP = 1.06 Pace = 68.4 eFG% = 50.5 TO% = 19.2 OR% = 32.6 FTR = 47.1

Also, this blog from kenpom is interesting: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/what_makes_defenses_slow

nicname · « **Reply #12 on:** February 06, 2014, 07:27:59 PM »

I took a look at FTR earlier in the season. Woof.

MakeItRain · « **Reply #13 on:** February 06, 2014, 10:22:09 PM »

They're going to readjust some of the interpretations of these rules in the off-season. I have heard countless coaches; Boeheim, Coach K, Izzo, oscar, Frank, Barnes, etc. complain about the liberties that ball handlers have and they're right.

420seriouscat69 · « **Reply #14 on:** February 06, 2014, 10:25:27 PM »

Nobody cares what frank thinks (nationally) anymore. Hopefully the 5% can carry the wait for a good defending K-State team that gets picked on, on the road.

MakeItRain · « **Reply #15 on:** February 06, 2014, 10:41:52 PM »

Quote from: WackySquawk08 on February 06, 2014, 10:25:27 PM

Nobody cares what frank thinks (nationally) anymore.

Pretty telling that you picked his name out of that list and made that very irrelevant observation.

420seriouscat69 · « **Reply #16 on:** February 06, 2014, 10:59:11 PM »

Quote from: MakeItRain on February 06, 2014, 10:41:52 PM

Quote from: WackySquawk08 on February 06, 2014, 10:25:27 PM
Nobody cares what frank thinks (nationally) anymore.

Pretty telling that you picked his name out of that list and made that very irrelevant observation.

Well, do they? Don't bunch his name in with that cast if you want credibility for your post.

MakeItRain · « **Reply #17 on:** February 07, 2014, 09:01:03 AM »

Quote from: WackySquawk08 on February 06, 2014, 10:59:11 PM

Quote from: MakeItRain on February 06, 2014, 10:41:52 PM
Quote from: WackySquawk08 on February 06, 2014, 10:25:27 PM
Nobody cares what frank thinks (nationally) anymore.

Pretty telling that you picked his name out of that list and made that very irrelevant observation.
Well, do they? Don't bunch his name in with that cast if you want credibility for your post.

can you read? I said that's a list of coaches I heard complaining about that issue. You think oscar is more nationally relevant than Martin? Pro tip, he isn't, neither is Rick Barnes. If you know who the basketball coach at UT is you are almost certain to know who Frank Martin and oscar Weber are. I'm sure people who took the time to open this topic would much rather read about the actual topic again. You can take the old Frank Martin bs and calling people butthurt and dumbass to any of the several dozen other topics you've done that in.

420seriouscat69 · « **Reply #18 on:** February 07, 2014, 09:30:56 AM »

I mean... wtf?

kso_FAN · « **Reply #19 on:** February 07, 2014, 09:32:39 AM »

The rules on contact absolutely must be addressed. I get the intent to clean up physical play/hand checks on the perimeter, but when a ball handler can seemingly pick any point in a game and just dribble into a defender and draw a foul, the rule is being badly misapplied.

420seriouscat69 · « **Reply #20 on:** February 07, 2014, 09:34:30 AM »

My point was, only half those names have any pull on what the NCAA might think about the new changes.

MakeItRain · « **Reply #21 on:** February 08, 2014, 12:13:40 AM »

Quote from: WackySquawk08 on February 07, 2014, 09:34:30 AM

My point was, only half those names have any pull on what the NCAA might think about the new changes.

The rules committee is made up of coaches from all three divisions, wacky. My goodness. Random fans perception of how relevant certain coaches are has nothing to do with rules changes.

sys · « **Reply #22 on:** February 08, 2014, 12:17:32 AM »

poor wackydax.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #23 on:** February 10, 2014, 02:25:50 PM »

Hello NCAA basketball people (use advanced stats tho).

David Teel ?@DavidTeelatDP 11m
NCAA releases in-season stat trends for hoops. Scoring at 71.68 ppg, which would be highest since 1995-96. FG, 3PT, FT %s up from '13.

Blair Kerkhoff ?@BlairKerkhoff 14m
Hoops stats from NCAA: Teams averaging 71.68 ppg, Would be highest since 96. Scoring, fouls, shooting %s up. Turnovers down over last yr

The Tonya Harding of Twitter Users Creep · « **Reply #24 on:** February 10, 2014, 03:56:52 PM »

_Fan, isn't Texas' pace like way up from last year? and maybe ISU's too, I don't really recall. anyways, what im getting at is, if you take out Texas from the Big 12 this year is the pace about the same? guess you could take them out from last year if you really wanted to find out if they are the big difference.

EDIT: maybe its OU too? idk. can you just shed some light on whats making the pace be so much higher? maybe post last years pace side by side this years and ill figure it out!