I may have said this before in the thread, but I'm not going back to look.
If we do choose to expand, it needs to be with the thought of eventually trying to extract Louisville and Pitt or FSU from the ACC as #13 and #14 if we go that route.
Odds are that Clemson will never go because they're a founding member. GT and the rest of those schools are elite East Coast academics that won't want to connect to "flyover country".
Louisville and FSU are not charter members, they're kind of black sheep (FSU due to their football worship and Louisville for their academics related to all other schools).
The ACC Network has been pushed back for at least two more years per the GT president a few weeks back. ACC schools are relying on subsidies to stay competitive, and in ten years or so, FSU's revenues will be far outpaced by the SEC schools that surround them. They currently rank #17 in total revenue (they'd be 4th in the Big 12), they're pulling in almost $8 million a year in subsidy from the university (around 8%), and without that money, they'd be in the red. Compare that to Florida, who ranks #9 in revenue, and even without subsidy, ran a profit of over $10 million last year. As we move into the next round of GOR expiration and TV negotiations, that's only going to get worse.
The Big Ten is going to reset the market here in 2016, and that may be a good or a bad thing. All common thought by those who follow this closely is that we'd expand in 2017 to try and take advantage of that look-in provision in our contract. We would also reset our GOR to extend out past the ACC GOR, effectively leaving them exposed around the same time as the playoff contract runs out.
If you look at it as a two step process where the first step is to reset the contract, get a CCG, and reset the GOR, then we expand with teams that would make it more likely Louisville (who is probably most likely to jump) and FSU will want to head to the Big 12.
Louisville's two primary rivals, outside of Kentucky, are Cincinnati and Memphis. They also had another rivalry starting with WVU as they were leaving the Big East. If Memphis and Cincy were in the Big 12 for several years, with our revenues, that would only increase their basketball programs, which would make it more of a lateral move for their basketball team, and an upgrade for their football team.
If Louisville jumps, that may make the ACC shaky again. That's when you make another run at FSU. If they say no, fine. Make another run at Pitt. If they say no, figure something out with BYU, Houston, or whoever.
Anyway, that's my thought. Expand with the thought of ultimately getting FSU. Just know that the thought of bringing over 4-6 ACC teams is pretty low. A lot of them are fine not making money as long as they're still playing high level basketball alongside prestigious East Coast schools like Duke, UNC, UVA, GT, etc.
